Rcsamna Prasite, MAB
70 posts
The market charges tuition on a fixed schedule:
→ Impatience is billed as chasing
→ Fear is billed as bottom-ticking your own sales
→ Greed is billed as round trips
→ Ego is billed as averaging down on broken theses
→ Hope is billed as holding what you'd never buy today
Every emotion has an exact price, and the market collects in full, every time, without sending an invoice first.
The curriculum never changes. Only the ticker does. You either pay tuition until you learn the lesson → or you pay it forever because the lesson was never the point, the feeling was.
The cheapest education in markets is watching your own statements with the sound off. Everything you need to fix is already printed there.
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🚨Many narratives saying this market has run too far. Fine. Here are four of the most "bubbly" names in AI infrastructure and space, July 16, 2026, YTD returns:
$IREN → -11% YTD, 55% below its high
$ASTS → -23% YTD, 59% below its high
$RKLB → -5% YTD, 56% below its high
$TE → -12% YTD, 53% below its high
Three of those highs were set in the last eight weeks. A full boom and bust, peak to wreckage, in under one quarter. Two of these are trending today because they're sinking, not squeezing.
So are we overpriced? Wrong question. There are two markets wearing one ticker tape.
Market 1: a cap-weighted index near its highs, held up by a handful of megacaps. That's where the valuation debate actually lives.
Market 2: the risk tier. It already had its crash. 50-60% drawdowns while you were reading bubble threads. The de-rate happened beneath a calm index, which is why nobody threw a parade for it.
Here's what makes 2026 strange: in every real mania, the froth tops WITH the index. In 2000 they died together. This year the speculative tier peaked in June and round-tripped while the index barely blinked. That is de-grossing and rotation, not a mania top IMO. Bubbles do not finish red in their frothiest tier while the earnings keep arriving.
The Risk: red does not mean cheap. Some of these earned their de-rates, and if capex disappoints July 27-31, red gets redder. Cheap is a condition. It has never once been a catalyst.
But "the market ran too much" and "half the market already crashed" cannot both be true. Check which market you own before you argue.
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How to Survive? CASH IS KING. 💵
Cash is the only position that lets you choose your moment instead of having it chosen for you.
It’s not idle money. It’s the option on every future price.
The market teaches this rule to everyone eventually.
Danny cheng@dannycheng2022
Cash Is King: My 20% Rule for Surviving (and Thriving in) Any Market (July 16, 2026) One thing I will never do is go all-in on any single stock or asset. Maintaining strong cash flow is essential in both bearish and bullish markets. As a rule of thumb, I always keep at least 20% in cash regardless of market conditions. On top of that, I rely on steady rental income from my properties and parking spaces. This income covers multiple years of living expenses, giving us true financial security. It also ensures we always have dry powder to buy quality assets during dips—without panic or forced selling. What I often don’t understand is the typical retail investor mindset. Many go extremely heavy into individual stocks, especially small stocks not the big ones or crypto, often with heavy leverage. When the inevitable downtrend hits, they scream, panic-sell at the bottom, or worse—double down out of emotion. This approach might feel exciting during bull runs, but it’s incredibly fragile. Markets are cyclical by nature. Without diversified holdings, reliable cash flow, and a sizable cash buffer, investors become hostages to volatility instead of opportunistic buyers. The real edge comes from staying disciplined and patient. By protecting the downside with cash reserves and passive income, you remove the emotional pressure that destroys most portfolios. You can then act rationally when others are fearful—buying strong businesses or assets at discounted prices. Over time, this conservative-yet-opportunistic strategy compounds far more reliably than chasing home-run bets. It’s not about getting rich quick; it’s about never going broke and positioning yourself to win across multiple market cycles.
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🚨 Breakevens at 1.89 → the market now expects the Fed to undershoot its own 2% target. And the funds rate is still sitting at 3.5-3.75%. 👀
That’s a real rate near 1.75% against the Fed’s own ~1.1% real neutral → and every tick lower in expectations tightens policy further while the Fed does nothing. Standing still is hiking. Now OVER ~60 bps above neutral → RESTRICTIVE.
You don’t tighten into expectations breaking below target. The street isn’t reading a 2026 economy with 2016 optics → it’s reading a disinflation with a lag. 😎
James E. Thorne@DrJStrategy
Breakevens are telling you the real story: they’re sitting below 2%, and in that world the next move for the Fed is a cut, not another hike. The street clinging to “two more hikes” is reading a 2026 economy with 2016 optics, ignoring both subdued inflation expectations and the supply‑side tilt of Trump‑era policy that points to non‑inflationary real growth
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$EOSE just had the single best news day in company history. Three headlines, one morning.⚡️
Record revenue: $68-69M preliminary for Q2, the highest quarter in company history. Shipments more than tripled YoY. The first half of 2026 out-earned all of 2025.
Record backlog: ~$807M, up 25% in one quarter. Orders outran shipments while revenue itself set records. And customers paid in $78M during the quarter, more than revenue. Collections exceeding sales, at this stage, is rarer than the growth.
And then ⚡️ a Golden Dome for America contract with the Department of War. Z3 zinc storage deployed as an initial prototype supporting the nation's missile defense shield. Named by the President, on stage, today: " $EOSE in Pittsburgh just agreed to a multi-million-dollar partnership."
Focus on what the third one means. 🧐Missile defense infrastructure cannot run on batteries from a foreign adversary's supply chain. Zinc chemistry, sourced and built in America, just became a national security specification. That is not a customer win. That is a moat being written into defense procurement.
The market still prices this like a speculative battery story. Today it looked like a domestic energy-security platform: record demand, compounding execution, and now the Pentagon on the customer list.
Long 🟣 $EOSE
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$ASTS fell ~16% AH on the word “dilution.” The market read the headline. Almost nobody read the structure.
There are two kinds of dilution. One funds the burn: shares sold at the low because the company has no choice. The other buys the bottleneck: long-dated capital that attacks the one constraint holding the thesis back. Today was the second kind, and the term sheet says so five different ways.
→ $1B convertible due 2034. Seven and a half year money. Not one share sold at $56.
→ Converts at a premium to be set at pricing. Dilution only happens meaningfully higher.
→ Management is spending part of the proceeds on capped calls, real cash whose only job is pushing the effective dilution price higher still. Companies that don’t care about shareholders skip that line item.
→ Settlement at the company’s election: cash, shares, or mix. If the thesis works, they can pay 2034 in dollars, not paper.
→ Institutions asked to eat $1B of unsecured ASTS credit. They said yes.
And the key is the use of proceeds: securing additional access to orbit and cutting reliance on third-party launch. Their launch provider is also their direct competitor. And it’s about to IPO. You do not want your supply chain owned by the company you’re disrupting. This is $1B of independence.
Why the ugly tape anyway? Convert buyers short the stock on announcement to hedge. That flow is mechanical, indifferent, and temporary. Flows, not verdict.
Read term sheets, not headlines.
Yes, bad timing today.
Long 🟠 $ASTS
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The market is a liquidity-seeking machine. It doesn’t travel to fair value, it travels to where the orders are: the stops, the margin calls, the forced sellers.
It used to do this by instinct. Now it does it by code. Execution algos sweep where liquidity pools, vol targets add and cut on schedule, CTAs flip at levels everyone can see. None of it has an opinion. All of it has a trigger.
That’s why price overshoots the news. The last leg of every move isn’t analysis, it’s liquidation. The stops do the selling, not the sellers. The models do the buying, not the buyers.
And when the last forced order clears, the move is done. Fair value shows up late, after the machines are finished, to take credit for the bottom.
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The goal was never to be right about everything. It was to survive being wrong about anything. Survival is the only strategy that compounds. 💪
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A great market technician @ProblemSniper who called this period of weakness is now calling an end to it.
🧐July OPEX -> Friday. Earnings begin.
Could next week be GREEN for the growth stocks that have been in a major correction/bear for past 6 weeks?
ProblemSniper@ProblemSniper
This week is the end of this period. ❤️ Finally! If you survived. Kudos!
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Drake didn't lose to Kendrick. He's losing to the cap table.
Everyone thinks his lawsuit was about a diss track. It's about a French billionaire and his 40 yo son who runs Universal — the biggest label on earth — without actually owning it. And a court ruling last week locked Drake in.
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📍 EHIQ called NXDR bullish Mar 21 at $1.43 — now $2.39 (+67%), confirmed on the public board Jul 10. Same dated, verifiable scoreboard as INTC +221% and DAVE +141%.
Track record: 17-7 (71%) — misses kept on the board too. Today: a heavy stress day — signals fired across macro, crypto, and cross-asset regimes, several at top severity. Premium subs got the alerts + the why in real time.
Start at $19/mo → eventhorizoniq.com/sharp
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@ericjackson @EventHorizonIQ My internal plan is as follows
⬇️
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.@EventHorizonIQ called $SNDK at $651.90 in February. It ran to $2,335 — still up +194% today at ~$1,916.
The AI-memory supercycle, called before it went vertical. Dated and public, not a backtest.
Subscribe here:
eventhorizoniq.com/join?utm_sourc…
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Sad morning — a sitting US senator gone suddenly.
The coverage of Graham's seat is already "SC chaos" and "a Democratic opening." Both miss the structure:
• The seat stays Republican. SC hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.
• Graham had already won the June 9 primary — so under SC law this goes to a special GOP primary on Aug 11, not the November electorate.
• A 4-week sprint like that comes down to one thing: a Trump endorsement.
Watch the endorsement, not the Democrat. It's dated and on the @EventHorizonIQ ledger — grade me in November.
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