Jerry Welch @ commodityinsite.com

Hi all, Jerry’s daughter here. Dad unexpectedly passed on Monday. We are in total shock, he was our world. He was so grateful to share what he loves with this community. Thank you for the support over the years. Yesterday we saw 3 moose together….you know what that means….❤️

To leave a memory about Dad and for service info, please visit the below link ❤️ bit.ly/jerryfwelch

@BohlingMatt Smart like a fox!

@commodityinsite Every time I’ve crossed paths with a fox grains have rallied!

Higher rates are bearish commodities. The 3rd Qtr that just ended had the sharpest rise with rates since 1987, 36 years ago. One market suffering greatly are grains. But I would not sell grains down here, “in the hole!” I would not be short!

When a calf & cow moose do this it usually suggests…

The main fundamental reason most all markets from grains to copper have done so poorly the past few months this: T-bonds in the 3rd Qtr. that ended Friday had the sharpest rise with interest rates since 1987. Higher rates is bearish as we all know so well.

@simomar48195478 @MarketMinuteLLC I believe wheat is underrated & could rise above $7 in late winter!

@MarketMinuteLLC @commodityinsite Thanks for replaying. I have a question do you think #wheat can move above 6$ on October ? I'm following you since the start of this bear and i like your fundamentals analysis

Across the board yesterday only copper & oj were higher. Bonds were higher but hit a 14 year low the day before. Grains collapsed but my soybean yield projection of 48.5 bu/acre for the upcoming WASDE report remains likely & if accurate; is damn bullish!

@MarketMinuteLLC @simomar48195478 That is very true but fortunately all members of the House & Senate continue to be paid.

@simomar48195478 @commodityinsite If government shuts down there will be no October WASDE

This mornings USDA report was a bearish surprise & grain prices are sharply lower toy chagrin. Note too, sharply lower prices are also seen with livestock, gold, silver & most tropical markets. Ugh!

Again: history shows stocks follow the lead of bonds. Right now, bond prices just fell to 112.13, the lowest since Oct. 2008, yes 2008. The Dow back then was under 9300 vs right now 33,781. But does history always repeat itself? Time will tell!

@BullPfantz It may be as simple as a nutty squirrel being possessive & nutty!

@commodityinsite Jerry I need your expert opinion. I just witnessed a brown squirrel burying a walnut in a harvested soybean field. What does this mean?!

Based on recent soybean yield results my estimate for the upcoming WASDE report is 48.5 bu/ acre. The last USDA estimate was 50.1 & mine was 50.0. If my new estimate is accurate soybean prices will rise to $15 a bushel PDQ. And I do mean PDQ!

@freddybean34 pretty damn quick!!

@commodityinsite What would PDQ mean, Jerry?

With 10 year Treasury yield hitting 16 year high today I am reminded that: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” By John Maynard Keynes. My advice: Use a stop! Or, watch for moose signals!

Oh, oh! In the past when moose calf runs to its mother, a cow moose it oftentimes means you know what. Not always but oftentimes!

@kbcapital1 He also said:” “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

@commodityinsite ‘There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who know they don’t know.’ John Kenneth Galbraith

When reading my opinions on here keep in mind my 2 top rules: #1; No one knows for sure. Not for sure they don’t. And # 2: “Always use a stop.”

This morning bond futures are down to levels last seen in March, 2010, 13 years ago. That means interest rates r soaring higher & that is bearish most all markets. However, the grain complex is showing independent strength in early dealings which is bullish!