David Widmar

1. Last week we looked at the @USDA's latest farm income estimates. (full post: ageconomists.com/2019/03/11/far…)

@drbrock37 @openingprint I’m never sure what price farmers end up paying - the price when loaded onto the ship or prevailing prices when farmers ask for a price quote. Agree on next year- especially if natural gas prices (and shipping cost) are high

@openingprint @davidwidmar that is my understanding as well, 4-6 weeks. It could frankly turn into an issue for next years corn crop in the US also.

44% of US urea imports happen between March and May. Also relevant: — Around 1/3 of US urea is imported. — Urea accounts for 25% of US fertilizer usage.

@BenBrownMU Or, the Dunning-Kruger effect?

Apparently I made this person more confused… but what’s confusing is they liked the presentation 🤷‍♂️

Just a few years ago, it would have been hard to imagine that 1) US corn exports would exceed 3b bu and 2) China wouldn’t be significantly buying.

The human brain isn’t designed to process all of the world’s breaking emergencies in realtime.

There are generally 2 types of LLM users, those that use it to learn everything , and those that use it so they don’t have to learn anything.

Farm managers spend a lot of time focused on the cost on the left, but fixed costs on the right are also large AND are highly variable across farms (especially equipment expense). In the long run, cost advantages are more likely to be found within the fixed cost structure.

Optimism =/= resolve. Getting through difficult times/conditions requires both.

It’s no secret that crop producers are facing a margin squeeze. The Stockdale Paradox warns us to never confuse optimism and resolve. For many agricultural producers in 2026, the “brutal facts about your current reality” can’t be overlooked. aei.ag/overview/artic…

How much of the global crop stocks does China hold? One of the topics covered in my recent interview with @AgBullMedia youtube.com/watch?v=0UWew3…

Talked with Tommy at @AgBullMedia today about: - corn acres moving west - the corn–soy “factory” expansion - median farm income confusion - the scale of solar on farmland - breaking news about a proposed $10B farm aid package. @AgEconomists youtu.be/87MXDWiwvrQ

"Acreage trends often unfold like the frog in a pot of water—hard to notice in the moment, but consequential over time." Join us next week (10/8) as we unpack corn and soybean acreage trends and what 2026 might have in store. aei-ag.zoom.us/webinar/regist… @AgEconomists

The bumper 2025 corn crop isn't evenly distributed across the U.S. Better data = better decisions. @AgEconomists

@rgstone1 I have a good interview with @davidwidmar I could share with you on this topic, we recorded it in late winter/early spring.

Indiana Farmland Values and Cash Rents Higher in 2025 youtu.be/66k2TVfWXKw

"Most analysts believe that the farm credit crisis of the 1980s had no single cause, but reflected the compound effects of a number of events and decisions, some of which took place within the farm sector, and others outside it. All of these changes reversed the conditions of the 1970s that had been so favorable to agriculture. If any factor stands out from the rest, however, it is the rapid change in the level of real interest rates." - "Anatomy of an American Agricultural Credit Crisis. Farm Debt in the 1980s"

Read more: aei.ag/overview/artic…