compound

@SaveOnSend Why would they pretend when it’s something kristo deeply believes in?

(3/3) ... seemed to know all along: higher pricing is fine when the firm has a leading combo of product breadth, account adoption, speed, reliability, coverage, and trust. It's time for Wise to stop pretending and change its mission statement to what actually matters to customers

(1/3) The only bigger bullshit than “founder mode” is “flywheel.” Every fintech talks about it as if they practice it, but almost nobody does, and there is little evidence it even works. After years of empty rhetoric, Wise finally began cutting take rate two years ago to prove...

@natolambert Arabica is everywhere

Most obvious immediate impressions on coming back to the US from China. 1. The cars here are so lame. So many cool EVs in China, feels like I went 2 decades back in time. 2. The coffee here is so much better. First real coffee in almost 2 weeks changes you.

@PythiaR Is by default positive margin long term and will be very sticky

@PythiaR This is what I struggle with the most. On one hand, tokens are priced too low since labs don’t make money. On the other hand, I can see a world where major white collar pay $100 a mth and use 20% of the cap only and still think 100 is a gd deal so that white collar biz

Satya on "where are the dollars to spend from AI going to come from" $MSFT (basically: everywhere).

@ariaradnia Adjust for constant fx

Did Spotify push their pricing too far? $SPOT

If you are structurally rent seeking more than incremental value creation. There is only one outcome

@ErnestWongBWM I’ve found that conviction for some reason scales with time and details. So LLM as an accelerant allows people to burn through a ton of ideas but gain none of that conviction. It’s like a PM who only reads secondary research without doing any primary himself

Personally have increasingly been using less AI and slowing down the investment research process to read and think. Coverage of new names is slower, but finding the depth of knowledge to be far better

@TomWrightAsia Wait till you go to china and have cars honk at you at the pedestrian crossing for walking too slowly with two kids in hand!

Small example, crossing a gas station entrance with my kid, a car comes off the main road and almost hits us. We were half way across as he came hurtling in. In his mind, we should only have started crossing when there was no chance of a car coming at all.

@breadcrumbsre Finally someone who doesn’t drink his cool aid

Brad Jacobs playbook: - pump your stock hard, do podcasts, write a book, do whatever it takes to get premium multiple - add back every expense you can and make sure markets value you on grotesquely inflated earnings (adj EBITDA) - use overvalued stock to buy competitors

@0x_ZHUANG The education system is built to enable the highest average outcome and reduce extreme end outcomes. Which works for an above average outcome in aggregate for the country. Arguably the wealthy current gen are more equipped to let next gen run free

Was asked today on how the start-up space in Singapore looks among youth 🇸🇬 From my lens, peers from top universities rarely go after the entrepreneurial route. The default path is still clear: internships → grad role → climb. Safe & predictable. and I do think Singaporeans are far more risk-averse than they should be. A few reasons. Firstly, National Service. Two years from 18–20 sounds small on paper, but it removes a critical window, the most “risk-free” years of your life. By the time men graduate at 24–26, the clock already feels like it’s ticking. Less room to experiment, more pressure to settle down and to get it right immediately. Secondly, cost of living. Singapore is expensive. Every year a startup isn’t profitable, it’s not just “experience”, it’s real financial pressure. Rent, lifestyle, expectations. Combine that with graduating later, and suddenly you’re expected to think about stability, housing, and long-term commitments right out of school. Risk becomes a luxury. Thirdly, culture. Singapore prides itself as a talent hub. However, if we’re honest, it’s a hub for world-class employees, not risk-takers. Our system trains you to follow rules, optimise for grades, and win in structured environments. Not to break things and build from zero. Even at a personal level, I remember making my first 10k months at 19 running a sneaker shop. Instead of pride, it was met with skepticism. “Not stable.” “Not a real path.” The expectation was always: go corporate, climb the ladder, earn your stripes. That mindset is deeply ingrained. And it’s a shame, because Singapore has insane talent density. Smart, driven, resourceful people. Yet so many end up as middle/upper management in overseas giants instead of building their own. Of course, there are exceptions. The hungry few who take the leap and make it work. I can’t help but wonder, if even a fraction more took that risk, Singapore would not just be a “talent” hub, it would become the epicenter of innovation in Asia. The ingredients are already here: dense talent, strong infrastructure, smart capital, global connectivity. If that mindset ever shifts, Singapore become more than just a place that produces talent. It starts becoming the place where Asia’s next generation of iconic companies are born.

And it will still be burning shareholder capital for the next decade

..that resulted in the seat cuts. You will just take more value via the agent you created that will more than offset loss from seats subs. Ultimately key is whether software co is able to leverage AI to drive new productivity uplift before competitors do. Just don’t be a msft

..in other verticals however say healthcare, if veev created the safety agent that increase productivity of safety filing , that value accrues to veev. Rmb soft rev is a share of productivity value they enable. Seat decline is ok if you are the one driving productivity gains..

The mkt is not differentiating between value that’s taken by Claude vs value that’s not. Eg msft value is taken by Claude because we now use Claude to do work on excel/ppt instead of copilot. The productivity gains value will accrue to Anthropic while seats loss hurts msft..

lol ok

We are overstimulated and we don't even notice. Netflix while eating. Reels in the bathroom. Music while cooking. Podcasts on walks. We consume by default, not by intention. You keep filling every gap, then wonder why you feel foggy and unmotivated. Boredom and silence are the real growth drivers. They give you space to think and create. That's when solutions show up for problems that have been stuck for months. Leave some room.

@mario_cibelli @breadcrumbsre It’s actually closer to 20bps for major currency routes. When I send usd/eur etc was 22bps on 30k

@breadcrumbsre I thought their take rate was like 40 bps?

Sent 25k to IBKR. Wise charged me $1.13. Why do we need stablecoins?

@nachkari @ChairliftCap Finally someone agrees 🥳

It's going to be a truly amazing short once it's public Massive and highly liquid, tons of dilution, can't make money, large well resourced competitors, growth decelerating and poor capital allocation

@iLike31415 @breadcrumbsre Have u tried to move that on wise? Wise doesn’t use corespondent banks

@breadcrumbsre Try sending 25k usd from Bulgaria to a bank in USA, see how that goes for you when the payment goes through 3 correspondent banks and the gets kicked back because you misspelled one letter in the swift. Now if you like bdsm try to make a payment from Nigeria to Sweden.

@breadcrumbsre Feel like we have to be increasingly active in deciding what we want to train our brains on vs what we want to outsource to LLM. Writing is the last thing to outsource since it’s thinking. But updating excel, ppt, note summary etc

I’m increasingly convinced that you should not use LLMs for thinking, it has so many biases we are not aware of that it will fry your brain. Just use it for info retrieval, a glorified search engine