Turtle Investor

@ElonsTusksGME Would you consider Nvidia and Microsoft small companies?

@compoundturtle_ I’ll stick with what the big companies are choosing, I’m sure they’ve done their research 😀 $NBIS by a country mile.

$NBIS or $IREN — who outperforms over the next 10 years? $NBIS — Nebius Mcap: ~$54B Secured power: 3+ GW Owns 75%+ of its infrastructure $IREN — Iris Energy Mcap: ~$20B Secured power: 5 GW 100% owned infrastructure (land, power & data centers) Which are you picking?

@Mario20253035 Demand is high, so I think contracting your power isn't that difficult. it's about the price you contract it for.

@compoundturtle_ Contracted and connected power is a totally different moat.

@KidVicious2005 Soon to not be a BTC company at all. What would they be then?

@compoundturtle_ IREN is a bitcoin miner and NBIS is the aws of AI

@99QQ111971 Soon to not be a BTC company at all. What would they be then?

@compoundturtle_ $NBIS AI pure Play. $IREN Fake AI BTC mining company!

At the moment, IREN, just looking at the power portfolio and not yet having a deal, which allows us to charge much higher prices than the parties that have already sold most of theirs (just like NVIDIA deal). Plus, AI is moving so fast that I am not yet convinced of Nebius's software edge and whether it is sustainable.

@compoundturtle_ Nice rundown, cheers for this, spot on. I’m leaning Iris Energy, owning land, power and data centres plus 5GW secured feels like the longer-term moat, though Nebius’ size is nothing to sneeze at. What are you backing, mate?

@stocklurker11 I was hoping for more specific examples because IREN has acquisitions too and has AI revenue, and an investment in a company would not be a key reason to buy except if the value of the investment is so underpriced in the stock price of the company you hold.

@compoundturtle_ If I wasn’t invested I would. It dipped under $190 briefly - so it will be interesting to see where new bottoms form. -AI revenue and backlog -3 acquisitions -28% stake in ClickHouse (valued around $6b) Just to name a few.

@compoundturtle_ $NBIS has a lot going on under the hood on top of their primary business. I also like $IREN but got into $NBIS at $50. I would be tempted to start an $IREN position if it gets back into the 40s.

@gannoncapital I was expecting a completely different answer looking at your first post. I was expecting something like a reason for power outages, not just that they are more concentrated in fewer locations.

The proof is just common sense since energy is more and more constrained in recent years. Look at the datacenter locations for both. IREN is locked into only two… Texas and BC Canada. IREN: Childress, Texas, USA Sweetwater, Texas, USA Prince George, British Columbia, CA Mackenzie, British Columbia, CA Canal Flats, British Columbia, CA Nebius: Vineland, New Jersey, USA Kansas City, Missouri, USA Independence, Missouri, USA Mäntsälä, Finland Paris, France Slough (London), United Kingdom Keflavík, Iceland Modi'in, Israel Beit Shemesh, Israel Masmiyya, Israel

@gannoncapital Very interesting. Is there also some proof as to why the grid zones are so risky? And wouldn't you say there is abundant power if you need Bloom Energy to power your data center?

Nebius for a myriad of reasons. No one talks about the risk IREN runs with the fact that they are primarily tied to high risk grid zones. Nebius built their infrastructure in regions that are abundant in power and then outsourced the rest of their electrical needs to Bloom Energy. That just covers the power section of the business… when it comes to leadership their team and portfolio Nebius beats Iris Energy by a few miles. My Nebius follow up article comes out in 13 hours. I highly recommend checking it out to see why I made a very conscious decision to invest in $NBIS over $IREN.

@data168 What do you think IREN's profit margins will be?

Here is another way to look at $IREN's potential. Grok fact checked the estimate. $30bn x 5gw = $150 bn ARR $150 bn x 13 = $1.95 trillion minus capex $50 bn x 5 = $250 bn It means $IREN could be worth $5000, give or take. It's even better than $3000 number I had before.

@nectarbuffs What would be the biggest difference?

@compoundturtle_ This is not a serious question. NBIS is on a completely different level than the other. It’s not even close.

@mastonk123 What data would you like to add?

@compoundturtle_ from the data you put out, only a fool wouldnt choose IREN. Thats the misleading part, but i dont expect much from you guys

@M999509616734 Don't you think you need a lot of power to fully utilize that talent? And I think IREN wins the power game.

@compoundturtle_ Nebius , talent more important than power… but Iren will be a good buy

@Zaymtheone I completely agree. People always talk about Nebius having better talent, but talent can jump ship to another company and secured power can't. Plus, you need that raw power to fully utilize the talent anyway.

@compoundturtle_ I think both will do great and you can’t go wrong with either. But power is the real bottleneck and for that reason I am going with Iren.

@mastonk123 Which one should I have bought then? I don't see how this post is misleading.

@compoundturtle_ pov: Im posting on X just to mislead people, because im mad that i didnt buy the right company

@MarketInvestorX Agreed. Also looking at the next 10 years, $IREN probably has the better power pipeline, which will be crucial if high demand continues.

@compoundturtle_ Over the next 3 years $IREN

@KennyZufall @Matt_Hernandez5 If it is just at fair value, I would say you could buy better company’s at fair value don’t you agree?

I would say it's hovering right around 'fair value' but it typically trades at a premium due to its high FCF and revenue growth. I think it's a good price to buy and hold for longterm investing but I don't currently have shares though I am interested - just limited dry powder right now

Please someone tell me like I'm 5 why everyone is so high on $NOW. I see it as either the best risk/reward setup in software… or the perfect value trap

@FluentInFinance We will crash, but when? 😂 You just don’t know, he doesn’t know. So, what to do? Nothing. Because if you sell today, it could very well be that if the market crashes in a few years, the bottom is higher than the top is now. Just buy great company’s for good prices.

“A crash is coming.” Andrew Ross Sorkin says a massive crash is inevitable. He’s one of the most credible financial journalists in the world.

@mvanbeijeren Can you explain to me why they would cool the air after it goes through the server rack? It doesn't seem logical to me. Is this how the $IREN hybrid data center will work too?

High tech datacenters always impress me, manifolds, valves, cabling, each with its own dedicated function. This Motivair solution is actually a hybrid air cooled / liquid cooled solution since the servers inside are still air cooled. The liquid cooling intercepts the hot exhaust air at the back of the rack. It’s a meaningful upgrade from pure air cooling. Rear-door heat exchangers work well up to ~20–30 kW per rack. NVIDIA GB300 runs at 100–120 kW. Rubin Ultra will hit 600 kW. It will be interesting to see how the 5GW NVIDIA partnership will take shape and if two-phase direct to chip cooling will be part of it, reducing PUE and WUE. #datacenter $INV $IREN

$NVDA gets at least $1.2B for free from $IREN. $IREN trades at ~$56 today. The strike price is $70 (out of the money) with a 5-year window and high volatility. The option value is easily $40/share x 30M shares = $1.2B in option value. So, NVIDIA gets $1.2B in option value for free, but only if they hold up their end of the deal. It's a performance-linked option. If $IREN goes to $0, $NVDA just won't buy the shares, and they won't lose a single penny. If $IREN goes to $100, they get $30 per share without any risk.

Consider this... @nvidia has a 5-year right to purchase 30 million $IREN shares at $70/share @IREN_Ltd is currently trading at ~$56/share That means retail investors can buy $IREN today at a $14 discount to the price the world's most valuable company agreed to pay You can own $IREN cheaper than $NVDA can...