Christian Holmberg

60 posts

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Christian Holmberg

Christian Holmberg

@computeberg

member of non-technical staff @etched // prev. semiconductor investment banking

Santa Clara, CA Katılım Nisan 2015
128 Takip Edilen207 Takipçiler
Christian Holmberg
Christian Holmberg@computeberg·
aehr earnings great start to a series of massive L's for the finwit bulls
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bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
Intel $100 coming after this earnings call. Last quarter I was obliterated. Nearly wiped out. I watched my P&L bleed in after-hours like a man watching his house burn. Everyone said I was finished. They thought I’d never touch INTC again. They thought the story was over.. But right when I’m out, they pull me back in… This is my redemption. Every hero’s story demands death before the resurrection. My ego was destroyed, my hope, my will was crushed… but I kept fighting. I’m not a good trader, or a good investor... but the gods simply favor me. Divine intervention doesn’t come to those without courage, it comes to the man who sizes up when the world tells him to fold. Pat walked so Lip-Bu could run. The foundry narrative is turning. The street is offside. And I’ve seen this movie before, except this time, I’m not the one who loses. See you in Valhalla.
bubble boi tweet media
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Christian Holmberg
Christian Holmberg@computeberg·
when the steam engine was invented, I don't think the world or it's creators understood what was coming this time, the revolution is much bigger. despite this, the future state of the world is directionally obvious the truth will set you free
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high cagr
high cagr@HiCagr·
Yes, the models will get cheaper over time. And that’s bullish.
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Justin Curl
Justin Curl@curl_justin·
AI agents have a loyalty problem. Should they prioritize their users or their makers? Sen. @MarkWarner's AI Agent Act would say users, adopting @zittrain / @jackbalkin's concept of information fiduciaries. For more, go read @ellgood's excellent analysis explaining how loyal AI agents could help solve users' problems with social media platforms
Justin Curl tweet media
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Christian Holmberg
Christian Holmberg@computeberg·
@AtlasShrug1 how so? open source needs compute. closed source needs compute. I need compute. you need compute.
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John Galt
John Galt@AtlasShrug1·
@computeberg Not so sure about that. I mean in the very long run sure. But in the short run, many of these things remain wildly overvalued and now have broken charts. I am steering clear other than a few special sits.
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Christian Holmberg
Christian Holmberg@computeberg·
seems to me that in all cases the hardware wins
John Galt@AtlasShrug1

I am not understanding how this AI trade can play out well. I saw Gavin’s tweet about lower cost open source models, which conflicts with Altimeter’s assertion that the frontier guys will continue to gain more share. Either way, the casualties will be brutal. If the frontier models continue to dominate, OpenAI and Anthropic do well, but costs remain high and the whole Jevons Paradox thesis is delayed. That doesnt seem like a great outcome given where valuations stand today. On the other hand, if the low cost open source models take meaningful share, Jevons Paradox kicks in, but OpenAI and Anthropic business models may be at risk, they may struggle to consistently make money, and therefore their trillions of dollars in future purchase commitments that are the cornerstone of the buildout of “the ecosystem” may not be money good, creating potential liquidity problems and death spirals with all of the leverage now in the system. To me it appears that the odds of a major disruption of some sort is extraordinarily high one way or the other. And it may be the next iteration of companies that are either tiny and private now or that havent even been started yet that will figure out how to make money from whatever wreckage transpires. Am I crazy or is this plane unlikely to land smoothly?

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Christian Holmberg
Christian Holmberg@computeberg·
@jukan05 can't we apply this logic to all semis pretty much at any point in the last 12 months?
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Looking at the current market mood, it feels like memory is going down either way. Case 1: If they deliver earnings above market expectations: “Isn’t this peak-out? Do you really think these profits are sustainable? Memory is cyclical, and this is the top.” Case 2: If they miss market expectations: “Memory is over now. Even after excluding bonus provisions, they should have easily printed KRW90tn. Sell on news.”
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Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland@Erling·
It’s been quite a row, thank you for making it so special 🚣🏼🇳🇴❤️
Erling Haaland tweet mediaErling Haaland tweet mediaErling Haaland tweet mediaErling Haaland tweet media
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Christian Holmberg
Christian Holmberg@computeberg·
in the limit don't the hardware companies just own all the data and therefore just win?
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Ken Wattana
Ken Wattana@KenWattana·
Just saw someone say Anthropic has no moat and they’re not worth $1T Every day this site manages to surprise me
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shirish
shirish@shiri_shh·
I cancelled my $10/mo Notion subscription and vibe coded my own with GPT 5.6 for $7500
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Christian Holmberg
Christian Holmberg@computeberg·
robotics is clearly the end game
Serenity@aleabitoreddit

"China is shipping ~90% of the world's humanoid robots. We cannot keep taking them lightly." Elon's comment: "For now" Meanwhile, 1X today posts a video of the most advanced humanoid hand. Looks like the inflection point for American humanoid programs is here? Both technologically with players like 1X and with mass production with $TSLA? I'm am personally long on Agility through $CCXI targeting commercialization with Amazon and others. But I'm proud to see American robotics as a whole go brrrr.

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Ryan Brewer
Ryan Brewer@ryanbrewer·
The future of work is having a little voice agent guy you delegate all your tasks to on then go sit in the park and think about what actually matters
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Keşfet

@bubbleboi @lakshyaag @HiCagr @curl_justin @MarkWarner @zittrain @jackbalkin @ellgood