The Pastoral Economist

@FreightAlley @mrenaud04 There is huge multiplier to the economy when real goods trade at profitable prices.

@mrenaud04 Goods is approx 30% of the economy. That is my focus.

The American Manufacturing Renaissance is happening. We are now getting confirmation from multiple freight and supply chain datasets that the industrial recovery is real and manufacturing is on course to enjoy one of the best markets in years. The domestic freight market strength is not just capacity - its an industrial renaissance bringing real volumes to the freight industry. Its not just trucking data - the railroads are seeing strong volumes, with shipments up 4.5% YoY. Rail volumes are more stable than trucking, so this level of increase in remarkable. Carloads, excluding coal, are at the strongest March since 2008, and chemical shipments are the highest levels ever measured. Other datasets, which track trucking but lag SONAR's high frequency data, are also reporting strength. Truckstop - "Highest load board postings since 2022." ATA Truck Tonnage index - "Highest levels in 3 years" BoA Shipper Survey - "18% increase YoY and highest since 2022" ISM Manufacturing PMI - "Highest levels in 3 years" Bottom line: Flatbed + rail strength confirm that the US is experiencing some of the strongest industrial signals in years.

Raw Materials Economics – Acres U.S.A. ® bookstore.acresusa.com/products/raw-m…

@RudyHavenstein I’m thinking MI-6. The Mullahs have billions invested in London. UK is practicing Sharia Law in many areas. London didn’t want US using its bases. They are outside the “ circle of trust” now . Chatham house & all the empire think tanks are really whining right now.

@conchofarmer Are they like the CIA?

Happy Easter, amigos.

@RudyHavenstein The IRGC.

@conchofarmer The animals?

Haha. Good one. I'm thinking if the private equity bubble bursts then that may offsets some of the war time money printing with asset price deflation and credit contraction. Inflation and deflation at the same time. The FED is going to have to do an eye peeling amount of QE to get the dollar down to a level that reshoring can really take off. Bessent even has to buy gold to get the dollar down --not much else seems to work.

@conchofarmer @TJ_Koch1 That is literally the dollar system :-) It’s just that the bail outs only come all at once every 6 to 8 years

If you want to know the path we are now sprinting down, read the first 60 pages of this book. The Brits never saw it coming either, until it was too late.

100%. Even worse is that around 50% of US health care spending is outright grift & fraud. On the other hand, the US does not as a practice subsidize money losing industries like solar or chemical companies for years on end with the strategic goal as a country to bankrupt foreign competitors & grab the market share. You cannot have free trade with a system like that if you want to have any mfg jobs in your home country.

@conchofarmer @TJ_Koch1 RE: China not being free trade - remind me, how is this different than the US Govt spending $1tn on defense, & subsidizing AMZN & other tech co's with govt contracts? IMO China has just been smarter with their subsidies than we have (they built factories, we fought GWOT)

@TJ_Koch1 @LukeGromen I get you. War should be obsolete as means to solve political or resource problems. Sad reality is that humans have been at war for all of recorded history.

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen Just because it doesn't exist doesn't mean it wouldn't work. At least my solution doesn't finance war.

@TJ_Koch1 @LukeGromen Where is this Libertarian haven with no taxes and perpetual peace?

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen Which war do you plan on funding with those tariff taxes?

@TJ_Koch1 @LukeGromen Id like to see 100% of taxation com from tariffs and the income tax eliminated. Taxing consumption vs taxing work and income is a better way to do it. Pres Mckinley had the right idea.

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen We only have it because stupid people support the government and it's stupid ideas like tariffs.

@TJ_Koch1 @LukeGromen Its what we've got no matter how how many Rothbards can fit on the head of a pin.

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen Letting the US govt pick the game in the first place is what got us in this disastrous situation. If the govt was in charge of the oceans there would be a shortage of water within 5 years. Letting the govt pick the new game will lead to even higher taxes.

@TJ_Koch1 @LukeGromen China hacked the game really well. US is forced to change the game.

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen The US govt picked the game and the rules (picked monetary system and set the taxes and regulations). China is playing the game the US picked. If that hurts the US citizens, I consider that a tax. Want to change it, give up reserve currency.

@TJ_Koch1 @LukeGromen Its not that easy getting rid of it-the system itself has inertia. Trillions in Eurodollars issued outside the US. US has taken steps like getting control of its own interest rates. Fed tool LIbor away from London & we now have SOFR. Bessent has tested using gold to manage FX

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen We can't produce more here in the US until we get rid of the reserve currency first. Keeping the reserve currency means we can't produce anything in the US and the tariffs means anything we import is much more expensive. This is why we have exploding homelessness poverty crime

Income tax was slashed as well as capex write offs -As to tariffs -this is economic war. You cant free trade with China whose companies get govt money to export product below cost. China strategically floods nations (even running at losses for extended time periods) as a tactic to bankrupt competitors. China built its own export machine on tariffs.

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen Taxes have never been higher in US history. (Tariffs are a tax)

@AvrosPentos @LukeGromen The Reserve currency is no longer practical for the US which is why we've been trying to ditch it since the sanction of Russia's dollar holdings. The dollar as reserve hurts US power as it cripples productive capacity.

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen Has Trump got the memo? Giving up RCS, isn’t as easy as you make it out to be. This has been the cornerstone of American power. Not aircraft carrier, not nukes. Yes, Triffins dilemma is a reality. But giving up RCS means reverting to a regional power from a global one.

I don't think the US cares anymore about "reserve currency status". Trillions in Euro dollar debt keeps a huge bid under the dollar which makes it hard to get the dollar down enough to get the US more competitive. Maybe the next round of QE will get the job done. Trade partners wont like a dollar that is too cheap though and they will probably competitively devalue as well .

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen US can either continue to have the USD reserve status or give it up to pursue the physical production of things.

Gold is floating and the dollar is being devalued. US pulled out of the UK driven Climate change Paris accord nonsense. Taxes and regulations have been slashed. Strategic choke points for regional trade and security like Panama, Venezuela and Greenland are being addressed. I'd say pretty good progress.

@conchofarmer Ah, but we don’t We are literally repeating almost everything they did

I would counter that Trump is the first president since WW2 to focus on the issue of bringing back physical production to the United States. US has far more resources to bring back physical production than the UK ever had. This war accelerates it. The old British empire is bad comp.

@conchofarmer @LukeGromen Hubris.