Count Draghula

MUTUALLY ASSURED ECONOMIC DESTRUCTION Large-scale tariffs are the "big red button" that closes the US capital account off to the world. The US has had to mirror China's closed capital account to protect itself from a system so good at giving it what free markets want. 1/

Softbank up 10% today with the Nikkei down 👀

@ptuomov It's the cheapest for most mundane tasks. All the others are far too expensive for the amount of context they offer

I attempted an analytical conversation with Grok and came out with the conclusion that XAi is indeed a neocloud.

@aRishisays Well I don't think calling it a surrender is mocking it. It would be the reality, as grim as it is.

@countdraghula I never said the US bears responsibility. My point was re mocking a deal between US and Iran that would normalize things, and calling it a “surrender”, when it would have been a deal/agreement. Thats all.

Mocking him for ending the war (which would be in the best interest of the world) is just as problematic as cheering him for starting it.

@aRishisays My question was why does the US bear the responsibility of a closed strait and not Iran? The costs of surrendering in the long term are possibly greater than that of the short term respite by ending it. Obviously the US thinks so otherwise it would've walked away already.

Sorry, I don’t understand the question. Are you saying that the war is good for the US and only bad for the rest of the world, hence it should continue? I believe war is bad for everyone, including ordinary folks in the US, who’ll end up paying via inflation. Maybe I am wrong or misunderstanding your question. My simple stand is this - war hurts everyone. In a scenario where a “win” is hard to define and equally hard, costly and lengthy to achieve, ending the war is a better outcome than dragging it on for an unknown period of time in pursuit of an unclear or an implausible objective. That’s all!

@aRishisays You've supported my worry here...you agree that if the war continues then they wouldn't allow flow to help the world no matter how bad it gets. Why don't the same rules apply to the US?

we can speculate as to how Iran behaves after the war is over until the end of time. What we do KNOW is that while the war continues, things get worse. It’s simply what we do know vs what we dont; real, terrible, tangible cost vs unknown benefit. unless you know exactly how long the war lasts, how much it costs the world, what Iran agrees to, and how things pan out after the war.

@aRishisays I'm not confident that an Iran as a regional hegemon would put the free flow of cost effective global commerce as a priority over achieving their long held goals. Any respite would be the minimal to avoid total collapse, while maximising other goals and revenue to Iran.

@countdraghula Any end to the war that doesn’t involve Iran totally surrendering their nuclear program could be spun as the US not winning/not achieving their objective. In the meantime, things get worse for the world the longer the war drags! So an end to the war is better!

@HanSoloTheForce It's openai mostly

@countdraghula Lucky he kept ARM after missing the chance of a lifetime in Nvda

If you are wondering "how can the Nikkei be up that much???" Well SoftBank is a ~9% weight and is up >40% in the last few sessions The lesson is if you have disaster like WeWork in your professional life there's always a way back! Don't stop buying

@CRUDEOIL231 Where are the actual real users of these financial instruments? Are there any?

On May 20th, literally minutes before the EIA announced the biggest US crude draw on record, the tape got slammed with headlines saying a US-Iran deal was a done deal. They explicitly pinned it to 'within hours' or 'tomorrow.' Total fiction obviously. Here we are on May 22nd, and that promised peace is still nowhere in sight Then came that garbage Al Arabiya report about Vahidi and the Pakistani minister, which we now know was a sham built on a photoshopped image from 2024. The funniest part? As soon as IRNA repeated the story, Al Arabiya bit their own tongue and denied they ever said a US-Iran accord was imminent. The bottom line is these hack reporters just dump fake narratives to move the tape, and they never face the music. It is a joke anyone would think calling this out isn't the most justified response. The oil complex’s price discovery is being completely broken by the artificial vol these clowns pump out. Wrong is wrong, period. Gaslighting the market like this is no different from victim-blaming in a sexual assault case and screaming, 'You asked for it.' The fraudsters are hiding in plain sight. They deserve to be dragged and held accountable, even if the financial media machine protects its own. #oott #iran

@joequant @MurikanzGowhoop But China takes that paper? Why if it's so bad?

@MurikanzGowhoop @countdraghula Disagree. China makes stuff. US makes paper. Ultimately the person that makes stuff wins.

@MurikanzGowhoop You don't need someone to lend to you. Banks create loans. Only thing you need is collateral (or not, it's up to you)

@CMorrisonMDFACC The sole torchbearer

@countdraghula "It's even more incredible that nobody really is interested in how unhealthy that is..." Michael Pettis writes about this essentially every day.

China has a world record trade surplus - producing far more than it consumes - and still runs up debt at the fastest rate in the world (even faster than the US despite their smaller economy) It's even more incredible that nobody really is interested in how unhealthy that is

@whhatisachoice I just wanted to be clear on your position. BTW you created a matching liability. Negative equity on the CB balance sheet. But I got the point. Make money and give it out. No cost. Easy.

@countdraghula then why did you ask how can it be done?

@whhatisachoice I know how you can do it. So after that you just give out the free money?

@countdraghula Set Rates to Zero, The Treasury instructs the Central Bank to make a payment, the CB credits the reserve account of the recipient's commercial bank. Simultaneously, the commercial bank credits the deposit account of the recipient. New money has been created with no bond.

What does it tell you about Chinese private saving demand if it can absorb massive Governmental and ROW deficits all while experiencing deflation?

@whhatisachoice sorry how do you make a deposit without a matching liability?

@countdraghula then don't issue the bond, there is nothing impossible about the government deciding to just create the deposit without creating the corresponding bond.

@whhatisachoice Which would create more debt?

@countdraghula no I am saying that the Chinese economy is running under utilized which is definitionally true and that the government sector can always step in and create demand.

@whhatisachoice I'm not. It's just the core of how you see the world. You don't believe there is a limit to demand for a particular good, and that building the capacity is always justified.

@countdraghula don't get mad now cmon dude

@whhatisachoice You would be hired immediately in central planning for the CCP

@countdraghula over production is by definition not enough demand, because if there was enough demand it wouldn't be overproduced brother.

@whhatisachoice you are saying that you can't ever overproduce, the problem is not enough demand

@countdraghula "you are saying there is never a private sector surplus ever." what does this even mean?

@whhatisachoice you're kidding. the whole world is running record deficits. you are saying there is never a private sector surplus ever. no matter how much capacity you build. c'mon

@countdraghula x.com/i/status/20569…