Chris Baken

@oddball_mr @bowtiedstocks @BoomTimeCC What is the median aussie house price-to-income ratio at the moment compared to the last 200 years?

@cpbaken @bowtiedstocks @BoomTimeCC Like the last 200 years of history and property increases.

Average first home buyer age in Australia today is around 36-37 For a lot of them, they would also be tied down with kids, the costs that comes with that and school fees etc If they are getting into the market with a 10-20% deposit If prices fall 30% or more from the current highly inflated levels Can they realistically recover from this? Or will they be negative equity debt slaves for a large portion of their remaining working life ?? It strikes me as a fairly grim setup

@DeepPsycho_HQ @Ermeeking This is a fake quote. Buffett did not say that

@Ermeeking It’s really hitting core of the heart.

“people don’t have patience to dedicate 3 years to building their own business, but they have the patience to work for others for 40 years.” - Warren buffet

@oddball_mr @bowtiedstocks @BoomTimeCC Like this history? x.com/i/grok/share/0…

@bowtiedstocks @BoomTimeCC History.

@bowtiedstocks @BoomTimeCC Wishful thinking and denial are common defense mechanisms used to circumvent psychological pain

@BoomTimeCC I think it’s quite likely, at least in real terms What makes you say it ‘won’t happen’ ?

@puppyeh1 Yes this was obvious in hindsight - we don’t get many opportunities like this, so I held on and added more with strong conviction x.com/cpbaken/status…

$MCE.AX getting taken out by AIS at 40c…exactly as speculated per the below…🤌🏻🤌🏻 Hope you all made some $$, only took 6mos longer than I thought 😀

@LackyDoovery Welcome to my world - hope you like it x.com/kejca/status/1…

@cpbaken 'value investor'

@cpbaken What a fucking pussy. Calling people commies. You're a pathetic cunt.

@bowtiedstocks @The_scanner_man Don't forget about the bank forecasts x.com/i/status/19137…

@The_scanner_man They were all spruiking this utter rubbish with absolutely zero accountability Plus, if you were up in Brisbane, you got ‘Olympics 2032’ thrown in for good measure All from guys less qualified than a weeties packet

I remember an auction I attended late last year, auctioneer was telling everyone it was a great time to buy with "rate cuts coming soon" yikes.

@TheVixhal Most modern payments are not encrypted with RSA. @grok - confirm

Prime numbers are the reason your credit card is safe. When you buy something online, your payment information is encrypted using a system called RSA encryption, and its entire security rests on one simple mathematical fact: Multiplying two large prime numbers together is easy. However, reversing the process and figuring out which two primes were multiplied is effectively impossible. For example, it's trivial for a computer to compute: 12,451 × 18,637 = 232,048,387 But going the other way is much harder. If I hand you 232,048,387 and ask you to find its prime factors without telling you where to start, it becomes a genuinely hard problem. Now scale those primes up to numbers with hundreds of digits, which is what RSA actually uses, and even the fastest computers on Earth would take longer than the age of the universe to crack it by brute force. What makes this philosophically strange is that RSA encryption is built on a problem mathematicians haven't proven is actually hard. We believe factoring large numbers is fundamentally difficult. But nobody has ever proved that no shortcut exists. It is possible, however unlikely, that someone could discover a clever algorithm tomorrow that breaks all encryption instantly, exposing every bank account, every private message, and every government secret simultaneously. This is one of the greatest unsolved problems in mathematics, known as P vs NP. It asks whether problems that are easy to verify are always also easy to solve. If the answer is yes, meaning P equals NP, modern encryption collapses entirely.

@Auswagerage @bowtiedstocks Could this be a picture of a speculative bubble deflating?

@cpbaken @bowtiedstocks You are a walking meme.

If you like crypto, you like it more for its volatility than its 'store of value' properties

@AussieHodl @BrissyBitcoiner @grok Oh. My point is that Bitcoin bros probably aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed 🤪

@cpbaken @BrissyBitcoiner @grok Been buying bitcoin since it was $1000. Your point?

I wouldn't have bought BTC at 100k for my SMSF if I had known it was near the top. The problem is nobody knows, and even if 126k was the top, it was my first bull market — obviously nobody felt it until it dropped to 59k. As Bitcoin believers, we should talk more about BTC and keep DCAing during the bear market instead of when the price is high. That's the right thing to do, for me now. 🧡🧡🧡

@BrissyBitcoiner @AussieHodl @grok, When the smartest kids in class- those who ace maths and outthink most of us - choose to study finance, what do they learn about the basics of asset valuation? How does that align with the world’s best investors? What’s one book you’d recommend to learn that approach?

@AussieHodl Let’s see how it work out after 5 years. I hope it’s happy tears 😂

@theRealKiyosaki @grok , can you please remind me of this in 2 years

Although Bitcoin is crashing I bought one more whole Bitcoin for $67k. Why? Two reasons: # 1: Because the Big Print will begin when the US debt crashes the dollar and “The Marxist Fed” begins printing trillions in fake dollars. #2: The magical 21 millionth Bitcoin is getting close to being mined. When the 21st millionth Bitcoin is mined…. Bitcoin becomes better than gold.

@zerotohero24 @QuintenFrancois If you understand computer science and IT systems then you will know that bank accounts are safer against quantum attacks than Bitcoin due to its distributed nature. @grok, explain why.

@QuintenFrancois Quantum will break your bank account while Bitcoin is still loading its first block

Quantum is a threat to Bitcoin

@BTCBreadMan @britcoal @BarbellFi Yep. Directly experiencing the GFC provided valuable lessons in how important having a good cash buffer is, rather than being a desperate seller at unfavorable prices

@cpbaken @britcoal @BarbellFi Enough cash for a few months expenses at the very least.

The perfect portfolio doesn’t exist But at 36 mine is pretty close: 5% cash 5% bonds 5% Bitcoin 35% real estate 35% total U.S. stock index fund 15% total international stock index fund The simple path to wealth 💰

@britcoal @BTCBreadMan @BarbellFi Some cash (5–10%). It gives you the option to act quickly at attractive prices during forced selling and liquidity stress. Those periods aren’t frequent, but seizing an opportunity from a desperate counterparty within 24 hours is where you can sometimes get exceptional value

@cpbaken @BTCBreadMan @BarbellFi Time in the market is better than timing the market. People think holding cash on the sidelines is a winning move but I guarantee that they're doing worse in the long term 🤷‍♂️

@BTCBreadMan @BarbellFi At least with Bitcoin gambling, there’s a chance of significant price gains as the stupids bid the price up. With bonds, you’re almost certainly going backward over the long term. Some cash is useful for seizing quick opportunities from desperate sellers

@BarbellFi What is the point of 5% bonds at age 36 lol

@bowtiedstocks Software engineer here. AI tools are awesome - they speed up development. But an incompetent developer will just create a sprawling maintenance nightmare. Companies that specialise in cleaning it up will be in big demand

When listed insurance brokers dump 10% in a day on no company specific news Because the market thinks they’re going to be ‘AI vibe coded’ out of existence $AUB.AX $SDF.AX

@brainteasers4u @JimChuong @grok, looking at history, how common was the term ‘paradigm shift’ during past bubbles?

@JimChuong The U.S. dollar is a medium of exchange. Bitcoin is a monetary network in price discovery. One is already finished. The other is in its infancy. Confusing volatility with gambling is just what people say when they arrive early to a paradigm shift. You’re welcome.

The U.S. dollar is a medium of exchange. Bitcoin is a medium for gambling. That’s the difference. You’re welcome.

@Auswagerage @bowtiedstocks @SpachusAus This is the type of response I expected from a Bitcoin bro. Keep it up and see how far that gets you in real life 👍

@cpbaken @bowtiedstocks @SpachusAus Speculation is Speculation you ignorant fuck

Neither a store of value nor a medium of exchange Just a tool for a speculative punt, and I’m ok with that Let’s not kid ourselves about what it is or what purpose it serves 👍