Crawling Puncture

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Crawling Puncture

Crawling Puncture

@crawlingpunctur

Semiconductors and AI

Katılım Ekim 2021
232 Takip Edilen166 Takipçiler
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Crawling Puncture
Crawling Puncture@crawlingpunctur·
$SNDK $WDC $STX $MU AI’s data needs: •AI generates data far faster than humans, accelerating storage demand. •AI video generation (short to long-form) will cause “parabolic” growth in storage requirements. •NAND/DRAM prices will rise due to disciplined supply @zephyr_z9
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
粉子们 挣钱了吗?
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Irrational Analysis
Irrational Analysis@insane_analyst·
Matt Murphy is indeed not blinking. Someone check in on Harlan Sur. He might have passed out in euphoria.
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Crawling Puncture
Crawling Puncture@crawlingpunctur·
@regardingsemi Reducing high beta like Labubu? x.com/labubu_trader/…
3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader

June risks checklist: Fake Risk #1: SpaceX IPO drains liquidity Everyone is treating this like a black hole for capital. I don’t buy it. The float will likely be tiny relative to the valuation, and market liquidity remains abundant. I think any liquidity shock would be just intraday. Fake Risk #2: Waller + QT I highly doubt Waller tries to crash markets with a QT scare in his first meeting. Even if the left hand shrinks the balance sheet, the right hand is pushing financial deregulation and bank balance sheet expansion. Fake Risk #3: Middle East escalation My base case remains that this is a price negotiation, not a state negotiation. Escalation is very unlikely. The real risks: 1. Funds selling because they believe the fake risks. Positioning matters more than narratives. 2. June OPEX. Call/put IV skew is already heavily tilted toward calls. The closer to OPEX, the vanna/charm flow from OTM call options will force MM to sell. The uncertainties: 1. Will Waller be much less transparent than JPow? Markets hate uncertainty. 2. Will oil prices resurge as inventories near bottoms? How much of the oil spike leaks into May CPI/PCE? 3. Will BOJ hike 25bps in June? My plan: Start reducing leverage and exposure to high-beta names from the first week of June. I will not add any new positions except small monthly call lottery tickets, but will buy dips if SMH/SPX reaches the 21d EMA in the OPEX week, as I expect another bull run post-OPEX.

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⚡️The Traveling Trader⚡️
BREAKING: Alphabet announced a MASSIVE $80 billion equity capital raise to fund AI infrastructure and increase compute capacity. 🚩"But why would they dilute their shares now? This is a red flag!" Is it? $GOOGL is the second most valuable company in the world now at $4.5T market cap. $80B raise is peanuts. Yes it will dilute shares in the short term by only 1.8% or so. REMEMBER: on the last earnings call, Google Cloud backlog nearly doubled in a single quarter, exploding from $240B to $462B! Because they literally ran out of capacity to host expanding enterprise AI workloads, they actually left money on the table! On the call they implied they would've made even more! This exact supply bottleneck is why Alphabet just announced the massive $80 billion raise. They are scrambling to buy compute aka land, power, chips to convert that $462 billion backlog into realized revenue. 🤔 So why didn't they issue more debt instead? Simple answer is because they don't need to use that bullet yet. Management made the calculation that a small dilution is worth it here and they'd rather protect their excellent balance sheet and IG standing. Their debt currently has an AA+ rating. S&P explicitly noted that Alphabet has the financial flexibility to layer on nearly $180 billion in additional net debt before triggering even a minor downgrade warning. They know they can generate realized revenue quickly off of a relatively small dilution (no need to tap into more debt yet). Lastly, Alphabet is much better positioned to do this than just about anybody else. It knows this. Other hyperscalers will likely follow with offerings at some point but most don't have the backlog nor the balance sheet $GOOGL does. I think $GOOGL has more than earned investors' trust and IMO any post offering dip is a buy.
⚡️The Traveling Trader⚡️ tweet media⚡️The Traveling Trader⚡️ tweet media
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
最近我的粉丝似乎不是很活跃!!!!
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⚡️The Traveling Trader⚡️
Boomer accounts are going nuts at this market, talking about how people are going to get wiped out, while they sit on the sidelines in cash. They think because they witnessed the 2000 crash that makes them special somehow. I witnessed the 2000 crash. You know what else I witnessed? People make generational wealth in the run-up to the crash. That is the cycle we are in now. Your job is to make money in this market, not bloviate about how long you've been around. Funny how these boomers never talk about capitalizing on the violent run-up but always love to reference the crash part of the cycle. This is the easiest market since 2021. You either argue with it or make money and manage your risk.
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Crawling Puncture
Crawling Puncture@crawlingpunctur·
@ZTheTrader Hi, is “Investing Floor Only” the right one for this, or “Traveling Trader Premium”?
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⚡️The Traveling Trader⚡️
$NOW broke first trend line, sitting on the 9/21 EMA. If it closes above second trend line, look out for liftoff 🚀
⚡️The Traveling Trader⚡️ tweet media
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Heisenberg
Heisenberg@Mr_Derivatives·
A 6-8% $SPX mini correction is coming. And when it does, you absolutely buy the living crap out of it for the eoy 🚀. So pathway could look like this: 7,500-7,600ish —> 6,900-7,000ish —> 8,000-8,250ish And yes this is the Tom Lee/Brian Belski, two permabull’s pathway.
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Crawling Puncture
Crawling Puncture@crawlingpunctur·
@mat78704 will there be a lower point tomorrow? the C leg, or we will go up till May 27?
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
trend day,就是单边。今天是单边向上。
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Fann
Fann@fannyliuff·
@mat78704 C浪是不是没有了 这不跌呀
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
注意‼️还有10 to 15 mins
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
周二路线:摒除夜盘的干扰的话,我认为有很大的可能开盘先往下拉一下,形成一个上行过程中的小回撤,然后再往上走。第一止盈时间11:30 et,第二止盈时间1pm。
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Regarding Semi
Regarding Semi@regardingsemi·
Most bought semiconductor stocks across the latest 13F filing cycle. NVDA and AVGO led all semiconductor names in total institutional buyers, followed by MU, AMD, and TSM. Semi-cap equipment names including LRCX, AMAT, and ASML also saw broad accumulation across filings. The chart reflects the number of institutional funds that added shares of each company during the most recent quarter based on aggregated 13F filings. $NVDA $AVGO $MU $AMD $TSM $AMAT $LRCX $INTC $ASML $TXN $ADI $WDC
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
@AndyLu03583145 May 26-27必新高。而且可能破7550。
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
交易计划:系统看spy下一个低点在May 19。根据最近的经验,低点总是早来一两天,所以我认为大概率低点就在May 18。而下一个高点在May 20。我们在May 20这个极致高止盈。
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AgentMat
AgentMat@mat78704·
第一:高点可不一定是May 15。可以是明天也可以是后天。但可能的比较好的止盈时间是May 14 下午。这些都是可能啊。你们自己分仓止盈。第二:下一个低点可能在May 19。
today@HeavenRm

@mat78704 非常牛逼,A大,还是那个问题,就是 15 日和 27 日中间的那个低点日期,大概是哪天哈

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