Nivek

1.2K posts

Nivek

Nivek

@cryptobynight_0

Following @Web3Quant & @fewseethis is all you need.

Katılım Mayıs 2017
876 Takip Edilen208 Takipçiler
Nivek retweetledi
Sama Hoole
Sama Hoole@SamaHoole·
In 1870, a German chemist named Erich von Wolf was analysing the iron content of various vegetables. He made a decimal point error. He recorded spinach as containing 35mg of iron per 100g. The correct figure was 3.5mg. The misplaced decimal sat in the nutritional literature for decades, entirely unchallenged, because nobody particularly felt like re-testing spinach. In 1929, the Popeye comic strip launched. The creators cited the iron content of spinach as the scientific basis for their character's powers. By this point, the decimal point error was already sixty years old and fully embedded in received nutritional wisdom. The error was identified and corrected in 1937. The correction was not issued with anything approaching the cultural reach of the original claim. Popeye continued punching things. The actual iron content of spinach, 3.5mg per 100g, roughly where it was always supposed to be, is further complicated by the fact that spinach is among the highest-oxalate vegetables known. Oxalates bind to iron and calcium in the gut and remove them before absorption. The iron in spinach absorbs at around 1–2%, compared to 15–35% for haem iron from red meat. You would need to eat roughly a kilogram of spinach to absorb the iron equivalent of a 100g beef steak. There is also the kidney stone question. Spinach contains around 970mg of oxalates per 100g: one of the densest plant sources. Chronic high spinach consumption, particularly raw in daily smoothies, is a documented pathway to calcium oxalate kidney stones. The smoothie industry has not issued a correction. Popeye is still a sailor.
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Lyn Alden
Lyn Alden@LynAldenContact·
@NaomiSeibt I’d love to look into this data. Can you go ahead and list the source?
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Naomi Seibt
Naomi Seibt@NaomiSeibt·
15 years ago you would have never seen this coming. This is ridiculous.
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Nivek
Nivek@cryptobynight_0·
@Bluntz_Capital Looks very similar to 2021 cycle top and bear market indeed. Keep in mind it took 8 months for it to double bottom and reverse though, so probably no rush in getting positioned.
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Bluntz
Bluntz@Bluntz_Capital·
clear as day macro abc looks done, with 5 waves within the C on $MSTR aswell.
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The Composite Trader
The Composite Trader@Larskooistra_·
A negative event is only a negative event if you don’t create something positive out of it. Let me elaborate. A lot of people in the trading space just got absolutely obliterated during this market correction. Portfolios down bad, believe getting crushed and honestly just the hope for a better financial future gone. And right now, this exact moment, can feel like THE ultimate setback. But here’s the truth most people miss. This is only a negative event if nothing comes from it. If you got wrecked because you thought buy & hold was the shortcut to getting rich. If you thought you could just sit there, hope, and watch your portfolio go up forever… and this correction shattered that belief, good. Because this is the moment THE shift can happen. Right now, this exact moment as you are reading this, this could be the most important moment of your life. Some of you are going to use this moment to invest in yourselves. To learn the skill set. To understand risk. To understand timing. To actually learn how to trade instead of hoping the market saves you. And years from now, when you’re consistently pulling money from the markets. When you’re making the kind of money that genuinely changes your life. You’re going to look back at this exact period and think: “Damn… that needed to happen. That’s what flipped the switch.” Because without getting obliterated, you would’ve stayed comfortable. Without the loss, you wouldn’t have changed. Without the pain, you wouldn’t have leveled up. Sometimes the market has to humble you before it can reward you. For me this happened during the 2021-2022 correction, for you it might be right now. So if this correction hurts you, good. Don’t waste it. Turn that frustrative, anger energy into the moment that changed everything. A wise man once said: “Showtime”
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Nivek@cryptobynight_0·
@kristenreagan @ctoLarsson Not the same! Supertrend on the Daily gave 4 fake outs during this topping process while Larsson Line only flipped once and got it correct. Supertrend would have chopped you up.
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kristen reagan
kristen reagan@kristenreagan·
@ctoLarsson Just remember there are 200 free indicators in TV that shows exactly the same. Like SUPERTREND or TRENDMETER.
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CTO Larsson
CTO Larsson@ctoLarsson·
Bullish on Larsson Line
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Nivek
Nivek@cryptobynight_0·
@Larskooistra_ Bought one hour ago, so excited! 🙏
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The Composite Trader
The Composite Trader@Larskooistra_·
‼️The sale is now live for 48 hours‼️ User experience for new members: 1. Go to tct-trading.com 2. Flash sale pop up 3. Choose desired plan 4. Follow the steps showcased in "how to get access" channel in discord. For existing members: 1. Log in to your account on the website 2. Flash sale pop up 3. Choose desired plan --> renewal date gets extended 4. Open customer support ticket in the server stating your purchase. If you are ready to trade the markets with me every day untill you get sick and tired of hearing my voice --> this is your opportunity.
The Composite Trader@Larskooistra_

The sale is going live in 1-2 hours. Up to 50% discounted, honestly haven’t offered these prices since the launch of the discord server. I will refund 2 people their full purchase amount of the first 20 orders. Make use of the opportunity and lets smash 2026 all together😁

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The Composite Trader
The Composite Trader@Larskooistra_·
Thinking of hosting a massive but limited flash sale for the VIP discord community. Feeling blessed and gratefull with the most recent take profits getting triggered.
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Cold Blooded Shiller
Cold Blooded Shiller@ColdBloodShill·
Last one for today. Good day for scalps, majority of actions completed within a 3 hour window. Only Gold/Silver played (with the exception of a late short on NQ) +$38,000 on the day.
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Sergio Tesla
Sergio Tesla@sergio_tesla_·
$BTC Price is around 74k. A good moment to take stock of the last years performance and lessons learned. In terms of analysis, I identified the major tops and bottoms of this cycle ahead of time, including the Oct ’25 top. In terms of execution, unfortunately, I fell short when it mattered most: ✅ Bought during the bear ✅ Bought during Aug '24 bottom ✅ Bought during Mar '25 bottom ❌ Did not sell during the Oct '25 top I've reviewed the successes here with you, so it only makes sense to review this failure too. Looking back, there were two common reactions to the breakdown among those who expected price to impulse further (myself included): 1⃣The environment was still very bullish and the failure was a low probability outcome. 2⃣There were valid bearish triggers and the system failed to act on them. While I will often default to 1⃣, as a single failure does not disprove a system, in this case I am firmly in camp 2⃣ After a thorough review, it became clear there was a structural blind spot at the execution layer of my system. I won’t cover every nuance here. Instead, I’ll focus on the most important takeaway, for both education and accountability. 🧵 (1/5) For context, this is a screenshot of my analysis on the '25 top (x.com/sergio_tesla_/…):
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Sergio Tesla@sergio_tesla_

$BTC After predicting the 2024 consolidation and catching the 2024 bottom, we once again nailed the 2025 consolidation. We predicted the inter-cycle top on January 20th, and we pinpointed the location of the bottom with 0.74% to spare from our invalidation. That means we caught all 4 of the BIG swing points over the last 2 years: 2 inter-cycle tops and 2 inter-cycle bottoms. While most were waiting for the obvious 72k level (and lower), we used the power of DATA to determine it was unlikely for price to get there. We didn't change our bias when times were tough and fear took hold, because our invalidation was never reached. Cool, calm, collected. And now, we start preparing ourselves for our greatest feat yet: selling our bags while the rest of the market turns euphoric. Fear did not take control over us, and neither will greed. We shall prepare, and we shall prevail.

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Dex
Dex@DexFi_·
Why is no one on the timeline talking about this ? Bitcoin is literally looking the exact same as NVIDIA before it continued its rally in march 2025
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Nivek
Nivek@cryptobynight_0·
@decodejar Market can be in extreme greed and extreme fear for months, there's no alpha in that. Only when combined with huge downside liquidation or upward spike + catalyst (see FTX crash or Coinbase IPO) does it give an edge. I think a downside catalyst + capitulation is near.
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Decode
Decode@decodejar·
Sideways market, and a technical high time frame higher low on Bitcoin, unbroken trend. Extreme fear across the board over the same period. I find it difficult to be too pessimistic here. If time in the markets has taught me anything its that the crowd is more often wrong than not.
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Star_OKX
Star_OKX@star_okx·
No complexity. No accident. 10/10 was caused by irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain companies. On October 10, tens of billions of dollars were liquidated. As CEO of OKX, we observed clearly that the crypto market’s microstructure fundamentally changed after that day. Many industry participants believe the damage was more severe than the FTX collapse. Since then, there has been extensive discussion about why it happened and how to prevent a recurrence. The root causes are not difficult to identify. ⸻ What actually happened 1.Binance launched a temporary user-acquisition campaign offering 12% APY on USDe, while allowing USDe to be used as collateral with the same treatment as USDT and USDC, and without effective limits. 2.USDe is a tokenized hedge fund product. Ethena raises capital via a so-called “stablecoin,” deploys it into index arbitrage and algorithmic trading strategies, and tokenizes the resulting fund. The token can then be deposited on exchanges to earn yield. 3.USDe is fundamentally different from products such as BlackRock BUIDL and Franklin Templeton BENJI, which are tokenized money market funds with low-risk profiles. USDe, by contrast, embeds hedge-fund-level risk. This difference is structural, not cosmetic. 4.Binance users were encouraged to convert USDT and USDC into USDe to earn attractive yields, without sufficient emphasis on the underlying risks. From a user’s perspective, trading with USDe appeared no different from trading with traditional stablecoins—while the actual risk profile was materially higher. 5.Risk escalated further as users: •converted USDT/USDC into USDe, •used USDe as collateral to borrow USDT, •converted the borrowed USDT back into USDe, •and repeated the cycle. This leverage loop produced artificial APYs of 24%, 36%, and even 70%+, widely perceived as “low risk” simply because they were offered by a major platform. Systemic risk accumulated rapidly across the global crypto market. 6.At that point, even a small market shock was sufficient to trigger a collapse. When volatility hit, USDe depegged quickly. Cascading liquidations followed, and weaknesses in risk management around assets such as WETH and BNSOL further amplified the crash. Some tokens briefly traded near zero. The damage to global users and companies—including OKX customers—was severe, and recovery will take time. ⸻ Why this matters I am discussing the root cause, not assigning blame or launching an attack on Binance. Speaking openly about systemic risks is sometimes uncomfortable, but it is necessary if the industry is to mature responsibly. I expect there may be significant misinformation and coordinated FUD directed at OKX in the near future. Even so, speaking honestly about systemic risk is the right thing to do—and we will continue to do so. As the largest global platform, Binance has outsized influence—and corresponding responsibility—as an industry leader. Long-term trust in crypto cannot be built on short-term yield games, excessive leverage, or marketing practices that obscure risk. The industry needs leaders who prioritize market stability, transparency, and responsible innovation—not a winner-take-all mentality where criticism is treated as hostility. Crypto is still early. What we choose to normalize today will determine whether this industry earns lasting trust—or repeats the same mistakes again.
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Nivek
Nivek@cryptobynight_0·
@TechDev_52 I have no doubt you will be right, eventually. But being early is the same as being wrong, especially if you hold alts. Holding from 125k to 60k and pretending like it's not a big deal is pretty unreasonable imo.
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Sergio Tesla
Sergio Tesla@sergio_tesla_·
Yesterday I said 2 things have to happen for me to consider taking out the weekly high: ❌ Yesterday's level had to hold ⏳ No weekly low after Tuesday Small wicks only hold when price is clearly trending away from it, which in my opinion is the case right now, with the path of least resistance being down. Hard invalidation for taking the wOpen is taking yesterday's low, which would confirm the smallest wick on a weekly candle in 3 years, but for me personally the idea has already become very unlikely. So the idea is very simple now: - Hold yesterday's low = look to take out the weekly high & wOpen - Take yesterday's low = look for bearish monthly confidence targets at 84k-80k area Personally biased for the second. I explain my thoughts in more detail in the following video:
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Scott Adams
Scott Adams@ScottAdamsSays·
A Final Message From Scott Adams
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Fantasy Crypto League (FCL)
Fantasy Crypto League (FCL)@playfcl_io·
Introducing Fantasy Crypto League! We're here to make crypto fun again. Play for free, win big prizes. Sign up now at playfcl.io 👈
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Sergio Tesla
Sergio Tesla@sergio_tesla_·
@astronomer_zero shared a great stat: when BTC moves less than 15% over 5 weeks, it usually precedes a significant upside move. We’re in that exact compression right now, so let’s look at what actually happens after these events. Straight to the point: what happens after these compressions? I identified 13 historical cases since 2018. For each one, I measured price behavior starting from week 6, the moment the compression is confirmed. I then overlaid all those forward paths on today’s price. The blue area shows where 80% of past cases traded from week 6 onward for the next 20 weekly candles, excluding the most extreme 10% on both sides. In plain terms: if history rhymes, this band is the zone price would explore next. You don’t need to be a statistician to see the pattern: after these compressions, price has historically moved up far more than down. But before you sell your house and bet the farm, let’s break the data down properly and apply some critical notes where necessary. If this caught your interest, keep reading 👇
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Astronomer@astronomer_zero

$BTC - another piece to the puzzle There is a 93%+ chance this range bottoms us (more proof). (#6 opened btw, as promised) Details to come on further implications. Just a small hint for now, lifting a tiny portion of my secrets. We still have many "reputable" influencers continuing to farm the sentiment and continuing on with posting bearish. Yet as $BTC quietly closed another weekly candle, we have just received more proof that our bullish thesis of this range being a bottoming range is correct, and the markets intended direction. This is indeed in sharp contract with the most popular opinion out there, of this being a bearish continuation range for lower. Yet just by opening our eyes ever so slightly, we can see, historically, $BTC has essentially never ranged for 5 candles or more, for less than 15% without a significant move up from that range or making a new cyclical high. Only bullish ranges created this type of pa. The reason why this is, is extensive and has a lot to do with liquidity buildup. But in simple/understandable terms. This is effectively done to bore the user out and to let bearish sentiment develop, before the move up and catching the majority off guard. I have talked about why the sentiment is clearly bearish right now and how it's undeniable almost everyone expects lower especially the last 5 weeks, minus the accounts who post both bull and bearish ideas all the time. My long term followers back testing my data know. (So if you don't believe me, test it yourself). The only exception is Sept/Oct 2018 (no data is perfect - full transparency). But do never compare price action to just one past instance/do never use fractals. As using low sample sizes (of literally 1) is essentially gambling and mostly used by influencers who by definition cherry pick one data point to fit their bias. Instead, best to fully and deeply back test history, then come to a conclusion. Such as all instances where we ranged for less than 15% for 5 or more candles: ➡️Aug-Sept 2025 ➡️Jul-Aug 2025 ➡️May-June 2025 ➡️April-Oct 2024 (2 instances) ➡️June-Dec 2022 (2 instances) ➡️June-Jul 2020 ➡️Jan-Feb 2019 ➡️Oct 2019 (the failed instance) ➡️Nov-Dec 2016 ➡️Aug-Oct 2016 (2 instances) ➡️ April-May 2016 ➡️... ... ... (Continue yourself further, there are more than 15 instances) Indeed, for more than 15 instances, a less than 15% wide range of 5 candles or more has resulted in bull market continuation (new cyclical highs), or a significant move up (such as 112k coming), with only 1 failed instance. That is 14/15 or better i.e. 93% chance plus of us bottoming. I hope that helps you to continue to filter out the bearish noise out there, of the bears loudly and proudly sharing their charts of 60k and lower coming. Unrightfully. Yes, we know most of those big accounts do this just to farm followers and feed off the bearish sentiment, but it does cause a lot of selling at the worst times (during this bottoming range). So here just another piece of trying to put you on the right side of the trade as I always value my, and also your capital the most above anything else. I will have done my job.

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Nivek@cryptobynight_0·
@sergio_tesla_ @Larskooistra_ Agreed! Is there an invalidation for this scenario though? A point (time or price wise) where taking out the monthly low is no longer as probable?
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The Composite Trader
The Composite Trader@Larskooistra_·
$BTC 91.4% of monthly lows form after the current monthly low. 100% of monthly lows have a bigger wick than the current low. These warnings are extremely effective when price is located wihtin ranging environments, which we currently are. I am viewing any pushes up higher as manipulation and will be looking to short the bearish reversal.
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Mindset Machine 
Mindset Machine @mindsetmachine·
4 years of therapy in 1 minute
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