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DN14 | Mapping The Next Move - Pinpointing key Elliott Wave confirmation levels across primary and alternate scenarios, alongside our latest macro, momentum and cycle analysis. newsletter.decodejar.com/p/dn14-mapping…

@blackwidowbtc 🤝

@decodejar Very reasonable outline if we get get some power above the 80Ks tbh

Bitcoin has now technically overlapped the Nov lows, even though by just a hair, so Elliott Wave counts looking for 'one more low' within the same impulse are dead. Bearish counts are now limited to larger corrective ABC structures where Bitcoin has room to go higher first, or it's a flat correction that started in Jan 2025 and the bottom is in. Over the course of the past two months I've looked at various alternate counts, bullish and bearish, but never found one compelling enough to take the place of the Primary count, which has stayed the same and has been locked in since November.

@lourenco_vs The only thing I would say is that moving averages are still overhead, but otherwise yes, it's pretty bullish overall.

#CustomIndicator On a more serious note after some of today's trolling, here it goes. A lot of people suggest that this "counter-trend" move that we´re in is the equivalent of one of the 3 points indicted by the purple arrows during the 2022 bear. As you can see nowhere during that period never did the price break the downtrend, nor my indicator flashed the trend reversal signal with a Buy. When it finally flashed in Jan 23, it was just before it broke the downtrend - now look at today, same thing, it flashed a Buy just before hitting and flipping the downtrend. So as far as I´m concerned, we have gone through the bear market trend reversal process. Im not suggesting we go up-only from here, we can still do a macro retest of the trend like we did from 25k to 19.5k. But overall, there´s no reason for me to doubt that we well underway for the next major expansion. Lets go get them boyzzz.

@solana Oh hello 👀👀

@GassnerJoshua "early days for May candle"

@decodejar and thats a closed green candle?

Monthly Heikin Ashi candles have a high success rate in confirming major reversals. Notice there were zero green candles during either of the last two Bitcoin bear markets. Early days for the May candle, but keep an open mind.

@cantonmeow @chrono_chartist 🤣

@chrono_chartist @decodejar I disagree Plenty of nice people on my comments posting stuff to support me through sexual harassment

It's funny how some people only show up in the comments to disagree. It takes a lot less energy to tear down a house, than it does to build a new one. Intellectual laziness from people lacking the creative and analytical stamina required to contribute to the conversation.

@andreas_nigbur Clickbait nonsense. You clearly don't understand how a long exposure works at the duration needed for photography in the early 1800s.

THE OLDEST PHOTOGRAPHS IN EXISTENCE SHOW EMPTY CITIES. The first cameras were invented in the 1830s-1840s. The first photographs of major cities — Paris, London, New York, Moscow — show something that NO historian can explain: THE CITIES ARE EMPTY. Massive, ornate buildings. Perfect roads. Bridges. Canals. Fountains. And NOBODY in them. Not “few people.” NOBODY. Where are the builders? Where are the residents? Where are the horses, the carriages, the markets? “Long exposure times” — that’s their excuse. “People moved too fast to be captured.” But the trees are sharp. The flags are frozen. The water is still. The carriages are parked and PERFECTLY visible. Everything is in focus. Except the people. Because they WEREN’T THERE. These photographs were taken AFTER the reset. AFTER the Mud Flood. AFTER the original population was gone. The new settlers hadn’t moved in yet. What you’re looking at is a CRIME SCENE. An entire civilization — erased. Their cities — stolen. Their technology — claimed by others. And the cameras arrived just in time to capture the evidence.😉

BTW this is 75% shitpost, but Bitcoin looks ok. Break of channel upper boundary at 81k would be significant, then long term moving averages at 84k. Above that would be hard to retain a bearish posture, even as an alternate idea.

Bitcoin bears about to get reamed, 60k bear flips utterly shamed.

@cdchester Yes that's pretty much it, and it does mean we could false break from the top of the channel and still return lower. True confirmation is going to be recovery if long term moving averages, or just blasting right through them. ~84k.

@decodejar This is the last EWT count i can use to support the bearish Thesis. past this I don't really have any way to support it. And again for full transparency: this could be a 1-2,1-2 set up for the Bullish Thesis.

@Roman_Trading I didn't buy any Bitcoin, but I did by TAO and SUI.

I’d bet most of the people who are telling you that the bottom is in or longed at a low point during this rally didn’t buy any $BTC. They won’t provide any proof as they are larping, using small accounts, or paper trading. Tough to trust someone who has nothing to lose.

@block_muncher @greektoshi Yes, I said 'early days'.

@decodejar @greektoshi …the month just started tho…?

@sminston_with I'm mostly shit posting, but yes I agree. Channel upper boundary is ~81k. Crossing it would invalidate near term "one more drop" counts.

@decodejar I have a hard time celebrating yet, but it sure seems like we're building the foundation to get closer to the next run than a new cycle low 💪🏻

@Nikola_kingo Grok is the weakest. Gemini is very powerful.

I don't know why more people don't use Gemini and Grok. Just because ChatGPT and Claude are all over mainstream media doesn't mean they are better. Mainstream attention and actual quality are two very different things. Sound familiar.

@azurexbt Grok is also by far the least competent AI. A long way behind its competitors.

@decodejar yeah didn't think you did, fun exercise though. tried it once with grok and then realised that grok would just quote people who know less than i do about it

ChatGPT thinks the Bitcoin bottom is in, citing ETF demand, while Gemini says it is not because global liquidity is still weak. Both are reasonable data driven assumptions. Claude and Grok think the bottom is not in because of the 4 year cycle. Make of that what you will.

@SirIsaacIn1905 I agree

@decodejar long term holders is going parabolic. LLMs just make shit up lmao

@cryptorand Are you sure?

Steve Jobs: +5,500% Tim Cook: +2,277% ---- Steve Jobs: $347 B added Tim Cook: $3.62 T added We owe Tim Cook an apology

@robbtpa Yes, and especially if it closes that way.

@decodejar Thats actually huge! On the monthly!

@azurexbt Yeah I don't give these responses any weight at all. It was interesting to me that Gemini mentioned global liquidity needing a bit more of a push because I've seen that in my own indicators, but otherwise very generalised and not useful.

funny. one of the reasons i don't ask AI for guidance on crypto is because the AI goes off and does some research and then comes back with an opinion based on the views of 'experts' i have specifically unfollowed or deliberately ignore because they don't know what they are talking about.😅 i reckon @aixbt_agent would be the sharpest mind but might be limited in weighing up the factors that will decide if btc has bottomed or not from onchain data when there is a heap of macro involved. what do you think @aixbt_agent?