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@decodejar

Bitcoin & Crypto Market Intelligence | https://t.co/pTW6aRaBjT

Not financial advice Katılım Mayıs 2020
569 Takip Edilen68.4K Takipçiler
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Decode
Decode@decodejar·
DN19 | Six Months In Review | A mid-year review of the framework: what played out, what fought us, where the market sits today, and what we need to see before the bottom can be called. newsletter.decodejar.com/p/dn19-six-mon…
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Decode@decodejar·
England will beat Argentina
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Decode@decodejar·
The best way to grow is to say things like "Bitcoin WILL do xyz". Those accounts, the ones that speak with absolute certainty, are the ones that get the followers. I do think though that it's human nature for people to naturally gravitate towards people that speak with certainty, even though they will inevitably be wrong over and over again. No one is interested if you say Bitcoin could go up or down, here are two possible scenarios, despite that being the actual reality at any given point in time.
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Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈
Cantonese Cat 🐱🐈@cantonmeow·
Inaccurate charting, false and sensational statements, and self-boosting without proof can gain you a ton of followers. I need to remind of myself to not be a piece of crap like that.
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Decode
Decode@decodejar·
@BitNoah007 About 70% of my total crypto allocation, excluding Bitcoin.
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Noah
Noah@BitNoah007·
@decodejar I know you’re a big fan of Bittensor (TAO). Can I ask how much of your crypto portfolio is in Tao in %?
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Decode
Decode@decodejar·
I've been quiet on the BIP-110 debate, mostly because I haven't seen a single post put forward a well-thought-out technical reason why it was necessary in the first place, and I expected there to be a lot of noise before the proposal failed by default. My view has always been that nodes run whatever config they want, set their own OP_RETURN output value, and fees price the block space. Whatever your views on arbitrary data, restricting it by a consensus rule change sets a dangerous precedent for censorship and fundamentally conflicts with the decentralised ethos of the Bitcoin network. By any measure, this should be the most important thing. Raising the OP_RETURN output limit is aimed at fixing UTXO bloat, improving node performance and overall network efficiency. It also simply recognises that capping OP_RETURN never stopped arbitrary data anyway; it just forced it into places that affect the network in the most negative way. Enforcing these limits by a change to consensus would therefore forever force arbitrary data to be stored in places where it hurts performance the most. Ultimately, block space needs to be regulated naturally by fees, which currently sit at less than 1 sat/vB, indicating there is really no spam problem at all, or at least nothing that requires such a heavy handed attack. I enjoyed Adam's post here, aimed at less technical people who really don't understand how the Bitcoin network works, but these are the people I see supporting BIP-110. His framing that most proponents are really just scratching at the surface of something much bigger is accurate, I think, and to quote directly: "there is no policeman, no policy authority, just mathematics, free market and hard money." The free market will decide the fate of spam on Bitcoin, and if that is by Bitcoin's ultimate success, it will be controlled by a robust fee market that eventually prices it out.
Adam Back@adam3us

On the filter fork topic. I don't usually have time, but this morning listened to one of the twitter spaces from earlier in the week, with some well meaning relative bitcoin newcomers, that humanized them, and their concerns and thoughts for why they thought that made it logical to support 110. My feeling after listening, is if these are the people with #110 in their handles, I'm sad to see them about to fork off and get disillusioned without understanding why bitcoin rejected 110 robustly. So here's a more empathetic, constructive higher level version of explaining why not. I hope it's high-level and first-principles enough that everyone can follow. They seem to want to understand what makes people tick, and are suspicious of intent. So, if someone asked me why is Bitcoin important and what is it, I'd say my (personal) mission and hope for bitcoin is to build the cypherpunk future, that "Snow Crash" was a blueprint, and work backwards from there. Bitcoin I hope leads to fully free markets via bearer unseizable, hard mathematically dependable money. Not everyone is comfortable with that level of freedom, but that's my view. And at this point, I believe that surprisingly, even now many governments have come to understand and value bitcoin's gold-like mathematical assurance, a positive development. Others may have milder views than myself, but still like hard censorship resistant money. Because of motive suspicion, if it's not obvious: I hate spam with a passion, that's how I came to design hashcash while researching decentralized bearer money with others, and running nodes in privacy related cypherpunk p2p networks nearly three decades ago. People seem upset about the default op return policy change in bitcoin. I will just assert, there are extremely robust and simple reasons for bitcoin changing default relay policy, and most just didn't do their research, so don't know what those are, or maybe not technical enough to fully understand though there have been 1000s of posts trying to explain in various simplified ways. So that lack of understanding lends itself to shared build-up of false narratives. So here's my back-to-basics higher level explanation. The decentralization needed to create cypherpunk money has implications a: side effect of decentralization is that you can't impose your views on others. The very decentralization mechanism that helps that, is working against what BIP 110 wants, which at it's most basic is a quest to police other people. I understand supporters don't see their intent like that, but introspect deeper. You can modify your software, but not anyone else's. Another critical and incredibly robust technical bitcoin immune system is bitcoin can't have people who don't understand technology basics insist on eroding security, decentralization robustness and core properties. That would end badly, fast, and so people will fight you on that. So the message is Bitcoin respectfully says "no" to what you want. Sorry, and bitcoiners do genuinely understand and empathize that you mean well, have high level thoughts that make emotional sense, and articulate sensible bitcoin-defensive high level ideas, but they are not grounded and without you seeing it, the way you propose to achieve your ideas, hard-conflict with free cypherpunk permissionless money. My advice is to listen to more experienced people who understand the system and why it works the way it does, to whatever detail you want to understand the grounded reasons for why this is the implication of decentralization and cypherpunk money. I guarantee you the developer and protocol ecosystem shares and exceeds your views on bearer hard money (and dislike of spam). You may not agree with individual developers choices, views, way of expressing themselves etc, BUT you also need to understand the IETF-like decentralized technical consensus process creates a protective change resistance, that is highly effective at protecting bitcoin mission. The implication of which is no developer can change anything without technical consensus from hundreds of other developers and protocol observers who are pedantic and extremely knowledgeable clever people who won't let any unaddressed technical question past. The protective change resistance is robust and decentralized in an amplifying way because of this technical consensus. And the many highly technical mainline developers' cypherpunk mission mindsets are probably far more determined than you can even handle on clarity of understanding and views about freedoms on permissionless networks, as many of you are probably still subconsciously inured by the matrix, where they have transcended that, and grew up immersed in it decades ago. They think natively in this space, while you are just grappling with the surface. Many wont have internalized or have the experience to know how this internet physics works, where there is no policeman, no policy authority, just mathematics, free market and hard money. That has implications for your views also, unfortunately. Now the tough pill, which is unfortunately true: If you won't listen to reason, educate yourself, learn, the same radical freedom applies to you: your permissionless recourse is to club together and create a fork. But bitcoin won't be joining it. (With respect and no sleight intended.) Please rejoin bitcoin now, or later if you're not convinced and need to experience 110 forking off and fizzling for yourself to start that journey of introspecting and learning. It would be sad if bitcoin lost people disillusioned due to simple lack of understanding of what's going on there, we're all trying to defend bitcoin and keep it on mission. Including btw the 110 technical promoters, just they wandered off plot somehow. Join the cypherpunks on bitcoin, come cypherpunk summer🌞 in a few weeks.

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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
BREAKING: FIFA’s Gianni Infantino has said FIFA will examine expanding the World Cup by a further 16 nations to a 64-team tournament ahead of its next edition in 2030, per NYT
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Adam Bucholz
Adam Bucholz@Bucholz_Adam·
Miejsca półfinalistów Mundialu w rankingu FIFA: 1994 🇧🇷3, 🇮🇹4, 🇸🇪10, 🇧🇬29 1998 🇧🇷1, 🇫🇷18, 🇭🇷19, 🇳🇱25 2002 🇧🇷2, 🇩🇪11, 🇹🇷22, 🇰🇷40 2006 🇵🇹7, 🇫🇷8, 🇮🇹13, 🇩🇪19 2010 🇪🇸2, 🇳🇱4, 🇩🇪6, 🇺🇾16 2014 🇩🇪2, 🇧🇷3, 🇦🇷5, 🇳🇱15 2018 🇧🇪3, 🇫🇷7, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿12, 🇭🇷20 2022 🇦🇷3, 🇫🇷4, 🇭🇷12, 🇲🇦22 2026 🇦🇷1, 🇪🇸2, 🇫🇷3, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿4
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Sminston With 👁
Sminston With 👁@sminston_with·
I love you Brits, But your days of getting by with saying regular stuff but making it sound profound due to your accent are OVER. You had me for a while
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Anonymous
Anonymous@YourAnonOne·
AI predictions for the 2026 World Cup semi-finals. Claude: 🇫🇷 2 - 1 🇪🇸 🇦🇷 2 - 1 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Gemini: 🇫🇷 2 - 1 🇪🇸 🇦🇷 2 - 1 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 ChatGPT: 🇫🇷 2 - 1 🇪🇸 🇦🇷 2 - 1 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Grok: 🇫🇷 2 - 1 🇪🇸 🇦🇷 2 - 1 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
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Decode
Decode@decodejar·
@claudeai Stop fucking around and just leave Fable in the plan or your customers will leave.
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Claude
Claude@claudeai·
We're extending Claude Fable 5 access on all paid plans, as well as keeping Claude Code’s weekly rate limits 50% higher, through July 19.
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Decode@decodejar·
@TimstaMills @StockmoneyL It could be, hence consideration of both, but just noting that schematic 1 is more common.
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Decode@decodejar·
I think this is the correct approach and agree with the idea that Bitcoin is in accumulation and has likely just completed ST in Phase B. I discussed this in my previous newsletter DN18. One thing I think is worth adding to @StockmoneyL's post here is that there is a second schematic that does not see new lows, and we should consider both options, although I am in agreement that schematic #1 is most likely. It is the most common outcome of the two.
Decode tweet mediaDecode tweet media
Stockmoney Lizards@StockmoneyL

Bitcoin update. Summer boredom and accumulation time. Q4 = bull.

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Decode@decodejar·
@chartzfukup @cryptofergani I agree, and whilst there is a chance we have bottomed, all these power law and rainbow charts are not the way to determine it.
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Crypto Fergani
Crypto Fergani@cryptofergani·
The bear market is over. The bears lost. Bitcoin is going for ATH. And YOU sold the bottom 😂
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Decode@decodejar·
@ShadowTraderCT It's a non issue imo. Bitcoin has a strong history of shrugging off attacks.
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Copy Trader BTC
Copy Trader BTC@ShadowTraderCT·
@decodejar I hope so and probably you are right but many investors might think twice about dropping millions into btc until uncertainty is gone. Maybe it’s a non-issue, idk.
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John Holmes
John Holmes@CryptosBlocPrty·
@decodejar @BigCheds Why the hell would anyone want to DCA almost 30k above where it’s gonna bottom? Does that sound like good math to you?
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Cheds Trading
Cheds Trading@BigCheds·
Interesting observation. Many large accounts declaring $BTC has bottomed on HTF but rank and file is not buying it, with 2/3 saying no bottom yet
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Decode@decodejar·
@ShadowTraderCT Another silly narrative that is much much further away and much much lower risk than most people realise.
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Copy Trader BTC
Copy Trader BTC@ShadowTraderCT·
@decodejar When quantum starts hacking dormant addresses including Satochi addresses it won’t be a pleasant sight..
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Decode
Decode@decodejar·
DN19 | Six Months In Review | A mid-year review of the framework: what played out, what fought us, where the market sits today, and what we need to see before the bottom can be called. newsletter.decodejar.com/p/dn19-six-mon…
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