Psyduck

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Psyduck

@cryptopsychdoc

bullish believer | side character

Chicago, IL Katılım Aralık 2017
2.3K Takip Edilen3.6K Takipçiler
Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
not sure why, but coins going up feels so much better than stocks going up
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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
she zec my vvv til i hyperliquid
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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
entire market fucked by a euro twink
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Blueprintsmb
Blueprintsmb@blueprintsmb22·
Long post but the TLDR is choose your reference points carefully. I grew up comfortable in Kansas with a father who owned a small business pulling $40k a year. I felt rich until I went to Brown. Then I felt like the poor. There were students that had BMWs parked on different parts of campus so they wouldn't have to walk far to get access to a car. I needed to make money to pay back my parents for college so I went to Wall Street. After Morgan Stanley, I worked for a single manager hedge fund managing $1.5Bn (alot of money back in the day) in SF that had just received an anchor investment from Yale University. My boss was making more money than ever and was spending it. He would vacation with Lance Armstrong and Cindy Crawford. He became close with Wes Edens at Fortress. We made investments in Fortress portfolio companies. My boss took board seats on some of these investments. My boss spent alot of time frustrated he was not on the same level as Edens. My boss was also close with Charles Schwab and we also invested in SCHW. Charles would let my boss and the firm stay at Stock Farm in Montana to host events for our LPs and management of some of our portfolio companies. It was the first time I ever flew private. I met Don Valentine of Sequoia who was an LP in our fund. We ran into Huey Lewis in the men's locker room before playing some golf. It was a world I never knew really existed growing up in Kansas. We were also investors in Herbalife and would complain to the CEO at the time Michael Johnson (ex Disney) that he was massively overpaid and that the compensation structure of the company needed better alignment for shareholders (based on hitting key KPIs, etc). He would say he impressions mattered in his industry and living in LA was expensive. When 2008-9 happened, our fund got decimated as we basically were a long only. Heavy exposure to Fortress names with massive leverage was no bueno. My boss had board seats which meant we were restricted. Yale pulled their entire investment. While the world was burning down, my boss in his fancy office in the Transamerica building told me that I was lucky "to not have any money to lose" while the world was burning down lol. I get what he was saying now as we saw clients that had amassed generational wealth in tech or owning boring businesses in Louisiana lose half of their net worth in 12 months. People were scared. I would move back to NYC and end up working for 3 billionaires at different points during my career as a journeyman buysider. I did well enough at points to have direct contact with some of them. I saw the same dynamic - always someone doing better. Always frustrated. Not that happy. I stayed in this world just trying to stay alive with some good years and years I got paid nothing when performance was poor. I was fine staying on this never ending hamster wheel until 1) I got married 2) we had a daughter 3) my dad's cancer diagnosis got more grim and I did more self reflection on what game of life I was playing. Ultimately I left to buy a small business which has been hard. I still have friends on the buyside and in tech that struggle with comparison. But the reference points I was around constantly in my W2 are no longer loud. I wake up early and turn on machines. Most of my team members never graduated high school. My customers are mostly salt of the earth sales people working for small distributors sprinkled with some big publicly traded companies. $4 gas is a huge problem to everybody I interact with during my day - my customers complain daily about it in their daily lives. I sometimes lend money to my team members when they need help. I have to fix problems every day as the business isn't big enough to support hiring a general manager right now. But I'm home for dinner every night. This works better for me and my family. My life is simple now => bring in business to make sure the 10 team members can feed their families. Last year when tariffs and a big customer shutting down hurt business badly for 3 months, my accountant told me to start firing employees as my competitors were either shutting down or firing 25-33% of their entire staffs. Entire shifts were shut down. I fired no one. It didn't feel right. I just stopped paying myself. This year things have turned around. Team members are making 25-33% more due to overtime. I have more purpose now as my life is simplified as I'm just focused on making sure my team can eat, we make good product for our customers and the business can continue to pay down debt. This is a hard path. I wouldn't recommend it for many, but it works better for me at this point in my life. My mental health has never been better. My wife reminds me how big of an asshole I used to be in finance as I was always stressed about my exposure / frustrated I wasn't doing better. What changed? My reference points changed. I no longer live in NYC. I live in this myopic world where I spend my weeks talking to team members, customers and vendors. 4am until 4pm is spent living in this world. 4pm-8pm is spent with my family before I go to bed ahead of a 330am wake up. I have no doubt if I stayed in finance and was living in the Upper West Side in NYC, I'd still be playing my own version of "why aren't I doing better." It took having a child and thinking more about my Dad's mortality (he passed this October from cancer) to re-evaluate things. I wish I had been brave/smart enough to consider a pivot earlier in life. x.com/deedydas/statu…
Deedy@deedydas

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation). Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. As a result, 1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb. Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more. 2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future). Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire" 3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed. Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies. 4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either. No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money." I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here. Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success". Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
if the market nukes enough it will deter Trump from using actual nukes
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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
@0xMerp yeah. this is what they do in singapore + have strong legal action against corruption
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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
biggest release of the day: Leopold's 13F or Drake's iceman
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Evanss6
Evanss6@Evan_ss6·
MyBags not looking good today
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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
@notthreadguy if Drake wrote a bar about me, i’d play that shit as my entrance song everywhere i go
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threadguy
threadguy@notthreadguy·
on drakes new album: “better treat me like shayne coplan” polymarket supercycle
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Poop Hitler
Poop Hitler@pooph1tler·
@Evan_ss6 You're closer than you think and that's the problem.
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Evanss6
Evanss6@Evan_ss6·
These bankers who do these IPO allocations are ass-spulunking cowbangers you don't hate them enough
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Leveraged Cat
Leveraged Cat@leveraged_cat·
the strongest case I can think of for no meaningful pullback for a while, and worst case a few choppy weeks, is that nearly everyone I know who was bullish late March/early April (myself included) has made calls to get cautious and raise cash recently obviously the argument for caution may prove wise. I'm still not fully allocated after taking some profits for concern of short term volatility But the argument is this: if the market continues to drift higher, even those who timed the initial move well will get locked out of this rally and be forced to chase. Bullish participants with an eye for risk management will continue to cycle through: get long -> ride a leg higher -> take profit, wait for pullback -> be forced to chase higher take it from someone who took profits the past few weeks and saw nearly every name continue on higher than my sale prices it's really not that different from the positioning mechanics we witnessed last year, except this year there seems to be a fresh sense of optimism about the AI ecosystem this is also a key ingredient for the formation of bubbles
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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
@blknoiz06 “Claude, what stock are you most bullish on?”
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Ansem
Ansem@blknoiz06·
how did everyone start shilling this at the same time
Michael Sikand 🦑@michaelsikand

I just bought $2M of a brand new stock after it crashed 7% today. $PENG is now a 20% position in my Asymmetrical Bets fund (+89% YTD) on @joinautopilot followed by $10M. Credit goes to legend @pennycheck for being the first to call this stock. With Penguin Solutions I now own the winner agnostic integrator behind the memory, CPU, and photonics supercycle at under 17x forward earnings. 1) The memory business alone is worth the market cap. Penguin's Integrated Memory biz = they take raw DRAM chips from manufacturers like SK Hynix and package them into custom memory modules built to spec for AI servers, telco gear, and enterprise systems. It's now 50% of revenue, did $172M last quarter, growing 63% YoY, ~$800M annualized. Apply a 3x price to sales on just this unit and you're already above what $PENG is worth today. 2) Play the CPU supercycle. CPU:GPU ratios going from 1:8 to 1:1 as agentic AI takes over. $PENG is the lead integration partner for AMD EPYC and Intel Xeon. Every new socket = more memory cooling and integration revenue baked in. 3) The AI Factory platform is real. OriginAI is their turnkey deployment from 256 to 16,000+ GPU clusters for sovereign and enterprise customers. 85,000 GPUs already deployed. UBS says non hyperscaler buyers (sovereigns, neoclouds, enterprises) capture 48% of AI infra spend in 2026. Hyperscalers build in house. But these other players ALL need Penguin. 4) Photonics is the unpriced asymmetric bet. $PENG called photonics early and was an early investor in Celestial AI. $MRVL acquired it $3.25B in December. Now Penguin is building the Photonic Memory Appliance, making it the only public play on this kind of wild photonics tech. The PMA is basically a box that uses light to link memory across a bunch of servers so the entire AI cluster can share one giant pool of memory like it's one big computer. Marvell guides Celestial to $1B revenue in 2029. If Penguin captures even low double digits of that stream, that could be 9 figs of unpriced networking revenue on $PENG's highest margin, most defensible IP. 5) People/partners are cracked. Chairman of $PENG is ALSO Chairman of $LITE. AMD CTO Mark Papermaster sits on the board SK Telecom dropped $200M as a strategic investor New CPO Ian Colle ran AI infra at AWS 6) Risks are real but manageable Penguin's AI cluster business is lumpy and one big customer slipping a quarter can tank earnings (already happened in Q2, down 42% YoY). The memory shortage is a headwind as high DRAM prices are slowing customer orders and hitting Penguin's gross margins. The photonics upside is a 2027+ story, so if it slips, the stock can sit dead money for a while. Because the multiple is still so cheap, I overall see limited downside compared to the upside if their photonics option can be quantified with $MRVL where I could see Penguin trading closer to a 30x+ forward PE. Surf's up. Full thesis linked on Substack below.

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Psyduck
Psyduck@cryptopsychdoc·
@apewoodx last thing i wanna hear is a guy with a bitcoin DAT tell me how to be "aspirationally superior"
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Ansem
Ansem@blknoiz06·
how did they convince people that chatgpt is emptying the oceans of water?
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apewood
apewood@apewoodx·
think I’ve stalked most of my mutuals to see who does and doesn’t have a cat but if you do have a cat lmk, and also if I reach out to you about cats in the next couple of weeks it’s not weird it’s cool I swear thank you for your attention to this message
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