Psyduck
11.3K posts

Psyduck
@cryptopsychdoc
bullish believer | side character

Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

*SEC SAID TO CONSIDER ALLOWING TOKENIZED STOCKS TO TRADE ON DEFI PLATFORMS - BLOOMBERG LAW

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation). Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. As a result, 1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb. Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more. 2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future). Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire" 3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed. Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies. 4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either. No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money." I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here. Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success". Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

Just a friendly warning. We don’t even make $200k per year in Congress despite working nearly 140 days. If we aren’t properly compensated, a lot of us will go to the private sector and you will be left with some real idiots in Congress.



I just bought $2M of a brand new stock after it crashed 7% today. $PENG is now a 20% position in my Asymmetrical Bets fund (+89% YTD) on @joinautopilot followed by $10M. Credit goes to legend @pennycheck for being the first to call this stock. With Penguin Solutions I now own the winner agnostic integrator behind the memory, CPU, and photonics supercycle at under 17x forward earnings. 1) The memory business alone is worth the market cap. Penguin's Integrated Memory biz = they take raw DRAM chips from manufacturers like SK Hynix and package them into custom memory modules built to spec for AI servers, telco gear, and enterprise systems. It's now 50% of revenue, did $172M last quarter, growing 63% YoY, ~$800M annualized. Apply a 3x price to sales on just this unit and you're already above what $PENG is worth today. 2) Play the CPU supercycle. CPU:GPU ratios going from 1:8 to 1:1 as agentic AI takes over. $PENG is the lead integration partner for AMD EPYC and Intel Xeon. Every new socket = more memory cooling and integration revenue baked in. 3) The AI Factory platform is real. OriginAI is their turnkey deployment from 256 to 16,000+ GPU clusters for sovereign and enterprise customers. 85,000 GPUs already deployed. UBS says non hyperscaler buyers (sovereigns, neoclouds, enterprises) capture 48% of AI infra spend in 2026. Hyperscalers build in house. But these other players ALL need Penguin. 4) Photonics is the unpriced asymmetric bet. $PENG called photonics early and was an early investor in Celestial AI. $MRVL acquired it $3.25B in December. Now Penguin is building the Photonic Memory Appliance, making it the only public play on this kind of wild photonics tech. The PMA is basically a box that uses light to link memory across a bunch of servers so the entire AI cluster can share one giant pool of memory like it's one big computer. Marvell guides Celestial to $1B revenue in 2029. If Penguin captures even low double digits of that stream, that could be 9 figs of unpriced networking revenue on $PENG's highest margin, most defensible IP. 5) People/partners are cracked. Chairman of $PENG is ALSO Chairman of $LITE. AMD CTO Mark Papermaster sits on the board SK Telecom dropped $200M as a strategic investor New CPO Ian Colle ran AI infra at AWS 6) Risks are real but manageable Penguin's AI cluster business is lumpy and one big customer slipping a quarter can tank earnings (already happened in Q2, down 42% YoY). The memory shortage is a headwind as high DRAM prices are slowing customer orders and hitting Penguin's gross margins. The photonics upside is a 2027+ story, so if it slips, the stock can sit dead money for a while. Because the multiple is still so cheap, I overall see limited downside compared to the upside if their photonics option can be quantified with $MRVL where I could see Penguin trading closer to a 30x+ forward PE. Surf's up. Full thesis linked on Substack below.

There is something spiritual about living your life with no alcohol, drugs, nicotine, vaping, steroids, peptides, tattoo ink, Botox, lip injections, spray tans, antidepressants, ADHD meds, or melatonin. Nearly impossible in modern society, but aspirationally superior lifestyle.




