cmaynes

@gemoscatelli @CommodityGraham @JavierBlas podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mac…

@csmaynes @CommodityGraham @JavierBlas Demand is much lower than anyone can possibly imagine, this is the hard pill to swallow, demand destruction

While we await for the deal, I think we can already highlight a few oil lessons: 1) Although we don’t yet understand how, China can reduce oil imports massively (>5m b/d cut) 2) Saudi/UAE bypass pipelines work 3) OECD nations can release their SPR at flow rates of >2.5m b/d

@CommodityGraham @JavierBlas Bro is a journalist, and an excellent one, not a commodity trader. Don’t project.

@JavierBlas You sir are blessed to not be a commodity trader. Given your time in this arena, expected more.

@Geo_papic @AndreasSteno *Needs to read Geopolitical Alpha and start using a constraints based framework*

@AndreasSteno Yes. You will jinx it.

I should probably refrain from commenting on this one US-Iran Draft Agreement Reached Via Pakistan Mediation, Expected To Be Announced In Next Few Hours

@michaelxpettis I’m currently reading Changing Fortunes and highly recommend it.

The more we learn about Bretton Woods, the better. This FT interview of Ed Conway on his recent book, "The Summit", is a good starting point. ft.com/content/99c8e6…

@dampedspring No limit and the assembly 🤣👌🏼

I'm really interested in following the most bullish folks you know. Preferably ones with subscription services and anon. Please shill me your heroes.

@jukan05 Kyle Chan substack - High Capacity, CITIC and CLSA equity research, Jay Huang - Alliance Bernstein equity research

What are the most useful Substacks, media outlets, or websites for tracking Chinese technology trends and the current state of China’s tech ecosystem? Paid sources are fine. I’d appreciate your recommendations.

@TokyoDeepValue Would be great if you have any means of sorting companies by sales mix for domestic to Japan vs other geographies

I built an internal screener to find Japanese stocks that trade under liquidation value. Would it be helpful if I made this tool public? Who would use it?

@newstart_2024 @grok what is this podcast?

David Goggins dropped a masterpiece that will rattle your soul. He doesn’t “work out.” He doesn’t “train.” He wakes up every single day and paints a brand-new Mona Lisa… with his own life. “Every morning I’m creating a masterpiece—and the masterpiece is me.” He only does 2 podcasts a year on purpose. No phone, no noise, no followers, no Google. Just brutal, honest time alone with his mind until the next stroke of genius reveals itself. That’s why at 49 he’s lived 10 lifetimes while others live one job, one identity, one comfort zone. Race car drivers retire and get lost. Goggins? His canvas keeps expanding because he finally asked: “Who the hell am I when nobody’s watching?” The second he stopped copying Michael Jordan, stopped voting party lines, stopped scrolling for answers—everything flooded in. The ultras. The books. The impossible missions. All of it came from inside. His message is simple and savage: Stop outsourcing your destiny. Sit in the dark with yourself long enough and your real list appears. Then paint it—one unrelenting day at a time. If you’ve been feeling stuck, numb, or like you’re living someone else’s script—this clip will hit you like a cold shower at 4am. Watch it. Full volume. Then ask yourself the question he did:“Who are YOU… really?”

@Teslaconomics @grok is this real or ai generated?

“Optimus is now doing the majority of the work inside our factories, from material handling to assembly to quality checks, and we are seeing margins improve materially as costs drop, throughput rises, and downtime is minimized. This is a fundamental advantage that makes Tesla the most efficient manufacturer in the world. Optimus is building the future of Tesla.” - Future $TSLA Earnings Call

@adam_tooze Yes I can help

I want to make a daily price index for Gaza using the reports published by the Gaza chamber of commerce for basic items of consumption. I'm having difficulty getting AI to read the reports reliably. Can someone with good Arabic help? facebook.com/photo?fbid=121…

@LukeGromen Huh, that’s quite incredible. You may not now the answer, but asking just in case you do: what would the value of the step up in basis be? My probably incorrect math: 8,134 tons -> ~287m oz * $2818 = $808bn?

@csmaynes $42

Financial Acctg Manual for Federal Reserve Banks, Section 2.10 👇 Treasury instructing Fed to revalue gold higher results in Fed creating cash that is deposited into the Treasury General Account. It is just double-entry bookkeeping & requires no gold to be sold.

@MacroAlf Hey Alf - what’s your view on the right policy to delever in as orderly a fashion as possible while stimulating consumer spending?

China is making a similar mistake Japan did in the 90s. To counter a massive real estate develeveraging, they are cutting rates - but this is unlikely to work. The outcome is a continuous economic slowdown which could have negative effects on the global economy. 11/

There is a huge macro theme unfolding under our eyes. Yet almost nobody is paying attention. Big things are going on in China. 1/

@ElonMNews A

@JavierBlas Has the Commission noted which other firms did not comply with the probe?

It's official: European Commission announces its proposed level of tariffs against Chinese electric vehicles, ranging from ~17% to ~38%, depending on the manufacturer. Brussels says Chinese companies benefit from "unfair subsidisation". #OOTT #EV #EnergyTransition

@Brad_Setser @Brad, do you have a recommended reading list for understanding China Econ? Perhaps also history of China political economy?

I have a new article out in Foreign Affairs -- One that pushes back against the common narrative that the global economy is deglobalizing and fracturing along geopolitical lines 1/ foreignaffairs.com/china/globaliz…

@Brad_Setser The explanation is they are making great, innovative smart cars that consumers want

There isn't a single explanation for how China has gone from exporting 1m vehicles to 6m vehicles (latest data) in 3 years or so. Russian demand is part of it. But it doesn't explain why GM is supplying Mexico from China, or the surge in EV exports to the EU 1/

@DsrPrivate I read his book and subscribed to his service a couple months. I think I’d put him in the smart guy, no credibility camp. Too doomer and nothing he talks about is really actionable. Ask him for a portfolio that will outperform on a 12 mo basis… nada.

@DsrPrivate Dayum Chinese stonks

@DsrPrivate Maybe gold rising on China news due to relative attractiveness to cash and bonds due to long duration issuance?