ctsr

1.1K posts

ctsr

ctsr

@ctsewerrat

San Francisco, CA Katılım Ağustos 2023
1.6K Takip Edilen944 Takipçiler
ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@nic_carter You are sympathetic to the general who insider traded this market? You really need to re evaluate your ethics
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Pop Base
Pop Base@PopBase·
Today is World Penguin Day.
Pop Base tweet media
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ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@AviFelman portable nuclear sure but large scale nuclear is done after CFS demo in a few months
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@sgg_trader @jukan05 They aren’t on ibkr so they are worse. Sorry that’s just how it works
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SGG-T.eth
SGG-T.eth@sgg_trader·
@jukan05 I think all these Korean suppliers including Simmtech are better than TWN suppliers
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
All the Taiwanese substrate companies hit limit-up today… The Taiwan Stock Exchange needs to widen the daily limit-up range.
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@losingmoney68 The seller is you, getting stopped out at every 2k increment. Nobody owns coins and they don’t want to bid them yet
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chrome@losingmoney68·
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ctsr@ctsewerrat·
If BTC goes to 100k by end of may you make 25k. Max Loss of 4250 at 85k. Breakeven (0 PNL) at 89250 or 80750, anything below 80k you just collect 750 and move on. Also if you just start rallying hard this should perform either way.
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
A cute trade here would be to sell the 80k call, buy 85k and buy the 90k and fuck it buy the 95k as well. for a net premium collection of roughly $750. This gives you 3 calls for May 29th and you get a loss area of 4250 if you pin the 85k strike
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
There was a huge supply of April 75-80k call area that people put on as BTC outperformed during Iran war to generate yield and take profit on their core holdings
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@buffalu__ yes. M = Market Manipulation E = Extracted V = Value
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buffalu
buffalu@buffalu__·
is this mev?
@aaronjmars@aaronjmars

holy fuck, a hair dryer at a Paris airport broke Polymarket weather markets & made someone $34,000 richer - polymarket was settling Paris temperature bets on a single Météo France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle runway perimeter - basically unguarded - the guy bought the long-shot outcome (like "22°C" when everyone expected 18°C) for pennies, since nobody thought it'd hit - then he walked up to the probe and briefly heated the air around it with a portable heat source, spiking the reading just long enough to register as the daily max - temperature snapped back to normal in minutes, the market resolved in his favor, and he cashed out - twice, on April 6 and April 15, before Météo France caught on and filed charges hyperstitions.

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ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@bubbleboi 9b of fcf in trailing year. probably worth 100
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bubble boi
bubble boi@bubbleboi·
Adobe is probably not even worth a 25B market cap if we are being honest.
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ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@0xSisyphus One of these assets has the Mandate of Heaven, the other doesn’t. Up to you to figure out
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Sisyphus
Sisyphus@0xSisyphus·
Someone is trying to sell their home for Anthropic shares "I own a 14 acre estate in Mill Valley, CA and would like to exchange the property for Anthropic equity (understanding that this would be above the valuation of Anthropic's last financing round, in the $800+ BB range)"
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@ann_droo @MorganStanley its not all public but the ones issued by banks and their dealer networks that rely on IBIT definitely are
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ctsr@ctsewerrat·
was looking for the biggest $IBIT structured products and came across @MorganStanley's $100m note they issued back in November 2025. Its a pretty creative structure so figured I would share the mechanics of it:
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ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@based16z Btc whale family office who sells a yard and onboards to private wealth. They ask them what do you think btc does over next 2y. They make this product for them and they pitch in a small amt. this one in particular lines up closely w 4y cycler view
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@based16z So basically vol suppression 109k in nov26 then vol bid 109k Nov27 and wonky stuff around 82k Nov27. Overall this is small but as it grows in size to billions it will definitely cause weird price mechanics in markets
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@based16z From there they are doing a bunch of hedges in forward vol. They are short 109k put and short 109k call 1.5x starting in a year if conditions are met. And they are long 2x 82k digital put in huge size. So they have to buy forward vol and sell forward digital puts
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
@based16z Yea they definitely hedge it. Right now their most pressing risk is the digital 109k call that pays the client 28% if it’s anywhere above 109k at Nov 26. To hedge that they will buy a tight call spread with sameish expiry in listed options
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ctsr
ctsr@ctsewerrat·
These contracts are gaining immense popularity and will cause a ton of unexplained price movement in the future as these banks move to hedge the underlying risk.
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ctsr@ctsewerrat·
The kicker is once it goes below the 82k barrier your gain on downside turns to a pro rata loss all the way from 109k. So if BTC finishes at 81k you lose ~250k and you are exposed to full downside of BTC from there.
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Keşfet

@nic_carter @AviFelman @sgg_trader @jukan05 @losingmoney68 @buffalu__ @bubbleboi @0xSisyphus