Cy Scott

Hey everyone, I'm starting to write on @Medium covering trends as seen through the lens of data on the legal #cannabis market. Lots of great content to come, take a look and let me know. Feedback welcome! medium.com/cannabis-packa…

Yeah it definitely varies by state. Some markets we have really strong coverage, others less so. We think a lot about sampling bias and try to make sure our retailer mix represents the market, not just one type of operator. It's not perfect but we've been refining it for 11 years. Always happy to nerd out on methodology if you want to DM.

@cy_scott @Boris_Jordan @higherexchanges Makes sense. So roughly 25-30% share. Don’t feel need to answer, but imagine there are states where HS skews higher and lower. Do you feel HS is representative of state then? Meaning, if HS is in X MSO but not Y MSO how do you think about relative strength/share.

New York just hit 600 cannabis dispensaries, five years after legalization. We tracked $1.68B in sales there in 2025, up 86.5% YoY. Meanwhile 9 of the 15 states we track at Headset are down. NY is the market to watch in 2026, but the real test is whether it avoids the oversaturation trap that hit every mature market before it.

Here is our Q1 25 vs. 26 in NY, this will settle down as we finalize March numbers but trajectory looking good: Here's the Q1 comparison for New York: Key Highlights: Sales Growth: +23.6% YoY ($335.2M → $414.3M) Units Growth: +40.8% YoY (9.5M → 13.4M units) Average Item Price: -12.2% YoY ($35.33 → $31.02) New York's Q1 2026 performance shows strong volume growth with 40.8% more units sold, though this was driven partly by a 12.2% decrease in average item price. Total discounting also increased significantly from $6.4M to $28.6M, suggesting more promotional activity in Q1 2026.

We also publish our Analytical Methods available for subscribers, here is an example of a post from us on NY 2025: New York Cannabis Sales Total Updates December 2025 The forecasting process of Headset Insights starts with the total sales values for each market, sourced from state or provincial regulatory agencies. If data is not yet available for certain time periods, our analytics team creates forecasts for top-line sales. These topline forecasts are used to generate daily, product-level forecasts displayed in the app. When government-sourced data becomes available for any previous time period, Insights totals are revised to match, which may trigger restatements. Within each affected month, total sales values for all individual products are revised equally. New York’s Office of Cannabis Management released new sales data this month - including significant revisions to previously-published values - and we are revising many months’ sales totals accordingly.

This is the tension playing out everywhere. Cannabis beverages are one of the few categories actually growing right now, up 9.3% YoY in our Headset data while most of the market is flat or declining. And states are actively trying to shut them down. Ohio is up 20% YoY overall so killing a growth category there seems counterproductive. We talked about this on the latest High Rise episode actually.

Ohio breweries are fighting back after a line-item veto removed the provision that would’ve kept hemp THC drinks legal until 2026. 8 breweries united. 6,000+ supporters rallied. But one policy move can still shut down a fast-growing category overnight. #Ohio #THCDrinks #HempBeverages #CraftBeer

Great question. We have direct POS integrations with 3,500+ retailers across 16 US states and 4 Canadian provinces. So our data represents actual transactions at those locations, not extrapolations. Coverage varies by state but in mature markets like WA and CO we have pretty deep penetration. Happy to dig into specifics if you want to compare notes on what Boris was referencing.

@cy_scott Curious, how do you extrapolate for dispos not on Headset data. Bc what @Boris_Jordan said on @higherexchanges doesn’t jive then.

This is the key insight that a lot of people miss. THC beverages aren't replacing beer, they're expanding the occasion. Our data at Headset shows cannabis beverages grew 9.3% YoY while the overall market grew just 2%. Convenience is the perfect channel for this format because the consumer behavior already exists there.

THC beverages enhance beer sales, not replace them, Rmarts says dlvr.it/TRqF04 Read more ⬇️

Good question. MD is actually one of the 6 states still growing in our Q1 2026 data, up 4.1% YoY to $292M. But you're right that the growth is slowing. It was stronger earlier in the rec rollout. The compression pattern usually kicks in around year 2-3 of adult use, so MD is probably entering that window now.

@cy_scott Love the insight and question at the end. Where does MD stack in the data? Seems like growth has stalled and the market is firmly in the compression phase.

New High-Rise episode with @empax1 just dropped. The Army wants stoners now (effective 4/20). DHS is deporting people for possession. The White House is meeting on CBD policy. And someone just sued to block the Medicare CBD pilot before it launches tomorrow. Same government. Same week. Plus we dig into the data: 10 of 16 states declining, but cannabis beverages keep growing. youtu.be/c4-mX4Wql7k

This is exhibit A for the contradictions I wrote about in my first newsletter yesterday. The White House is meeting with cannabis companies about CBD regulation while anti-marijuana groups sue to block Medicare CBD coverage. Same week. Same government. Operators are just trying to build businesses while the feds can't decide if cannabis is medicine or a menace.

Anti-marijuana groups have filed a lawsuit against HHS and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Service, seeking an emergency order to block the new Medicare CBD program before it takes effect tomorrow. themarijuanaherald.com/2026/03/groups…

@DanielSabetGG This is so true. After 11 years working with cannabis retailers through Headset, the operators who build systems early are the ones who survive when margins get tight. And with 10 of 15 states we track down YoY right now, margins are definitely getting tight.

Cannabis operators treat audits like finals week. Cram for 4 weeks. Suffer. Promise "next year we'll do better." Repeat. Better way: Year-round audit readiness 4 hours/month = smooth audits, lower fees, zero findings vs. 160 hours crammed = stress, extra fees, findings

The data backs this up. Cannabis beverages are one of the few categories still growing while the overall market is flat or down in most states. We track this at Headset across 15 states. The irony is real though. The same companies that funded anti-legalization campaigns are now the ones pouring capital into THC drinks because their core business is shrinking.

Big alcohol spent decades telling you cannabis was dangerous. Now they're scrambling to sell you THC drinks 🤔 Budweiser, Molson, Constellation — all investing billions in cannabis beverages. They saw the data: younger generations are drinking less and smoking more. So now the same companies that lobbied AGAINST legalization want to profit FROM it. Meanwhile home growers have been out here the whole time, growing our own medicine in living soil for pennies on the dollar. You don't need a corporation to put THC in your life. You need a tent, some soil, and patience 🌿 What's your take — would you buy a THC drink from a beer company? 👇

10 of the 15 states we track at Headset are down YoY. But cannabis beverages are one of the few categories still growing. The operators paying attention to category mix and format innovation are the ones who'll come out ahead.

@ccasacchia @CultivatedNews Really appreciate that Chris, means a lot coming from you. Cultivated is one of the newsletters I actually read every week. Excited to add another voice to the conversation.

@cy_scott Count me in, looking forward to reading and plan to include a mention in @CultivatedNews newsletter

For 11 years (!!!) building Headset, I’ve had a front row seat to one of the most interesting and **confusing** industries out there. If you’ve heard me on the High-Rise podcast or seen me speak at events, you’ve gotten some of it. But most of my real takes have stayed behind the scenes. Client calls, board decks, private conversations. Well, now I’m starting a weekly newsletter where I break down what’s actually happening in cannabis, backed by real data, and say the things people usually avoid saying about our beloved category, both good and bad. First topic: the federal government can’t seem to decide what it thinks about marijuana (surprise!). Just this week: → The U.S. Army dropped marijuana-related barriers for recruits (effective 4/20… seriously) → DHS flagged ~77 people for deportation over marijuana possession → The White House met with cannabis companies about CBD regulation → And rescheduling? Still “in progress” three months later Same government. Same week. Completely mixed signals. In this first issue, I dig into what this means for operators, where the market is actually headed (10 of the 15 states we track at Headset are down YoY), and why cannabis beverages might be the most interesting category right now. If you work in cannabis, invest in it, or just think the industry deserves better analysis, check it out. open.substack.com/pub/cyscott/p/… If you find it interesting, subscribe. I’ll be writing every week. #cannabis #cannabisindustry #marketdata #headset

It's wild. They're scheduling meetings about CBD enforcement while rescheduling sits in limbo. Meanwhile the Army just dropped marijuana barriers for recruits (effective 4/20, seriously) and DHS is deporting people over possession charges. I started writing about this every week because the contradictions have gotten too absurd to ignore.

Still no cannabis rescheduling. How can they make decisions about this, and not decide on rescheduling?

The rescheduling timeline keeps slipping and meanwhile the rest of the federal government can't agree on what it thinks about cannabis. I wrote about exactly this in my first newsletter issue this week, the Army dropped marijuana barriers for recruits the same week DHS flagged people for deportation over possession. Same government, same week, completely mixed signals.

US Congressman Presses DOJ, DEA Heads On Cannabis Rescheduling Timeline cannabisbusinesstimes.com/cannabis-resch…

@srg444 Let me know how Headset data can help with your next chapter Scott!

1/ TURN THE PAGE🧵 As cannabis enters its next chapter, I’m stepping away from Zig-Zag and $TPB. I’ve truly loved the last ~5 years leading cannabis inside a NYSE-listed company going through its own transformation -- one I was proud to help steer alongside trusted colleagues. My mandate gave me a unique opportunity to evaluate, structure, and execute a playbook that was distinctly my own -- focused on new investments, partnerships, and products.