David Gabriel

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Retired French general reminds the West of Iran’s ancient civilization: ‘Ali Larijani wrote three books on Kant… I haven’t read anything by Netanyahu or Trump’

The development of the Arab-Jewish fertility differential since records began in 1920. Already well before the foundation of Israel, Palestinean Arabs maintained one of the highest TFRs in the world and a major decline started only in the 1970s. Jewish fertility initially followed closely the trend in Europe and briefly dropped below replacement in 1939 and 1941. Already during WWII, their TFR climbed sharply and peaked around 4 children per woman in the early 1950s. It then slid to below 2.6 in the 1990s. Only after the 1990s did the Ultraorthodox sector grow to a share large enough to impact the overall Jewish TFR and the rate started to climb again. In 2018 the crossover happened and since then, the Jewish TFR has been higher than the Arab TFR.

🚨 BREAKING ​Iraq officially declares its entry into the war alongside Iran against the United States and Israel. ​"We have decided to respond and defend ourselves against the attacks targeting our official Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)." ​This comes as Israel and the US continue to launch raids on PMF headquarters, killing numerous leaders.

🇹🇷🇮🇱 | El presidente turco Erdogan sobre Irán: "El mundo entero está pagando las consecuencias. Esta guerra es la guerra de Netanyahu por su supervivencia política, pero 8.000 millones de personas están sufriendo las consecuencias".

There are 2 chances now: 1. Iran takes full advantage of the fragility of the US economy and strikes all US military assets in the Middle East with Russian and Chinese aid. 2. Iran buys into the “peace” narrative and faces a ground attack with air support by US troops in 2 weeks

It’s coming. The Catholic States of America.

Saudi Arabia AGREES to let American forces use its King Fahd air base against Iran — WSJ

If you want to understand how Islamization of a country happens, there are actually two great, modern examples. Lebanon and Iran. Lebanon and Iran didn’t suddenly “collapse" one day. They were methodically reshaped. Lebanon was founded as a Christian country. It had a system that was built on a frozen moment in time. In 1932, Christians were just over half the population, so every part of the state was designed around that reality. President, parliament, military; all allocated by that snapshot. The problem? The snapshot never changed, even as the country did. Over the next few decades, the Christians who built Lebanon slowly left. They were the most educated, and also the most mobile. At the same time, the Islamic rural communities grew faster demographically and became more politically active. Then came waves of Palestinian muslims expelled from Jordan, who plunged the country into civil war. By the time the war ended, the balance the country depended on was already broken. Every militia disarmed after the war, except one. Hezbollah didn’t need to “take over” Lebanon in a dramatic sense. It just filled the vacuum. It built its own welfare system, kept its weapons, and tied itself directly to Iran. From that point on, real power didn’t sit with the state. It sat with the most organised force inside it. And that was the Islamists. Iran shows a different path. This path was faster, but built on the same principle. The Shah tried to modernise Iran rapidly, but in doing so, he crushed every organised opposition group through his security apparatus. All except one. The mosques. So when unrest hit in the late 1970s, there was only one network left that could actually mobilise people at scale. Khomeini used that network to unite a coalition that didn’t agree on anything except removing the Shah. And once the Shah was gone, that coalition stopped mattering. Within two years, the same groups including leftists that helped bring down the regime were either imprisoned, or executed. What replaced it was a theocracy built by the only organised structure left standing. Islamism. That’s the pattern in both cases. Lebanon changed because its demographics shifted and one group out-organised the rest. Iran changed because every alternative was crushed, leaving one network to take everything. Both countries today serve as a warning to Western countries facing its biggest civilizational challenge.