Chris Lytle

@CCapLP @darkstarsats @dan_tmt @WaltLightShed Agreed. They could not have a more powerful argument on force majeure here. It spells out directly being forced to stop network build

$SATS - (via Gemini) "The ruling is highly helpful for EchoStar in its attempt to shed these obligations, although it has triggered significant legal battles with tower providers. By officially terminating the mandate that EchoStar build and operate a nationwide 5G network, the DOJ ruling provides the company with the regulatory justification it needs to abandon its physical cell tower infrastructure. $AMT $SBAC $CCI

SpaceX Spooks the Telcos and Throws Towers a Bone. $TMUS $T $VZ $SATS $AMT $CCI $SBAC $ASTS $AMZN lightshedtmt.com/2026/05/14/spa…

@BDeveran CBRS and AWS-3 worth much more than Street estimates. Finally, interests aligned for tax advantaged SATS SpsceX equity swap post DBS spin. There is almost $100/share of other asset upside here

@BDeveran The miss on this analysis is equity value on merging DBS & DTV. 4X pro forma EBITDA is $32B EV with $12B of debt. Separate entity (maybe CNXX) will be majority owned by Ergen — FCF pays down $12B of debt in 3 years. SATS gets $5-10B of equity value

$SATS — Beyond The SpaceX Proxy I understand the hedging dynamic in EchoStar with SpaceX private holders running synthetic shorts ahead of the IPO. But there's a growing probability of SOTP realization across remaining spectrum and OpCos that the market isn't pricing. Three scenarios with highest implied upside: 1. DBS sale or DirecTV merger — Transfers est. ~$7.75B in DDBS debt off EchoStar's balance sheet, plus est. ~$2.25B in cash consideration to EchoStar. DDBS debt tranches that would transfer with the business: 5¼% Sr Sec 2026: $2.75B 7⅜% Sr 2028: $1.0B 5¾% Sr Sec 2028: $2.5B 5⅛% Sr 2029: $1.5B The March 2026 DBS RSA already cleaned up the path — 82% of DDBS debtholders aligned, pending litigation dismissed with prejudice, intercompany loans settled. That's the kind of balance sheet hygiene that precedes a transaction, not a standalone restructuring. 2. AWS-3 paired spectrum sale — Could fetch est. $7-8B at current mid-band comps (AT&T deal set the floor). 3. IRC §1033 tax treatment on AT&T + SpaceX spectrum gains — Could defer est. $6-8B in tax liability via qualifying reinvestment through EchoStar Capital. Stacked: est. $7.75B debt eliminated ~est. $10B in cash ($2.25B from DBS + $6-8B from AWS-3) ~est. $8B in tax deferral That's est. $25.75B in debt reduction, cash, and tax efficiency unrecognized in the current $40B market cap. Strip that from EV and the remaining OpCos + net cash sit at negative implied value. Each leg is independently accretive. None require heroic assumptions — DBS RSA was cleaned up for a reason, AWS-3 has a defined comp set, §1033 vehicle is already structured. At some point the delta hedge becomes uneconomical for the 29.8% short interest with 9.23 days to cover, 70.74% off-exchange. Locked-up SpaceX private holders can't easily unwind. As each catalyst hits, the hedge math breaks further. Management executing these sales + SpaceX trading higher post-IPO = the re-rating and squeeze setup is structurally loaded. I will probably do a write up on this now that the SpaceX IPO is coming near. Continuing to track these potential catalysts and accumulating signal. Speculative, do your own research! I did my first post on EchoStar last September +90% since then!

@BDeveran The upside on other assets is the big miss on Street right now. DBS/DTV merger enhances value of 12 MHz in a shared spectrum scenario. Boost in SpaceX hands worth much more given X platform scale and increasingly adversarial stance versus legacy MNO’s.

@chlytle33 Thanks for the input, Great point

@Kimerrrs @Umbisam Once DBS spun into DTV, logical route is to sell SATS shares to SpaceX tax free — all of those assets (Boost, CBRS, AWS) synergistic. There is at least $80/share of other assets and tax advantage of selling to SpaceX overcome discounts on assets

@Umbisam It does look like a good discount. My main worry would be the tax situation for $SATS. Spectrum sales tax (less so) & eventual tax liability if Echostar sells their Spacex shares (this I assume could be a larger overhang).

Many jumping on $DXYX at premium and I get that (I own some) Astonished $SATS (still!) concurrently trading at deep discount I love Mr Market when offering these dislocations.

@peter_adderton @EchoStar @JusticeATR @FCC @SpaceX Peter, there is no SpaceX IPO without this spectrum. Stop the nonsense

Did I miss the memo? Did @EchoStar quietly get the green light from @JusticeATR and @FCC… and get the $11B of @SpaceX stock? Or are investors acting like approvals are a formality now because apparently regulators have been downgraded to decorative pieces? Genuinely asking… or are we all just pricing in “toothless tiger” as the new regulatory standard? Why EchoStar Stock Is Suddenly Taking Off Now - TipRanks.com share.google/IiJt4zZCGJ9Czd…

@CCapLP @FREESPEECH1017 @GlobalSenate Classic deal where both sides win. Absolute value of SATS spectrum worth much more than $20B to SpaceX TAM and stock compnentn now worth $40B or so. Could argue worth much more than that to SpaceX with international priority rights

@FREESPEECH1017 @GlobalSenate Charlie said in Paris it was undervalued, but they got SpaceX equity at a cheap mark ($400B). $SATS

Some weird things with the $amzn $aapl $gsat deal: 1. It doesn't close for a year, till 2027. Why? 2. The terms leave open the possibility for other buyers to come in ( see below ). 3. $11B seems low price given that $sats sold for $17B Not sure this is over.

@brad_patnaude @dan_tmt Ergen wanting SpaceX stock clearly the driver of the transaction

@dan_tmt Really don’t understand how they didn’t try to buy $SATS

Globalstar turning into Straightpath 2.0? 🤔 $GSAT

@WaltLightShed @AyeAye_CAPT VZ tried to haircut them on any prospective shortfall on auction of minority interest. Now auction including Ergen & SpaceX will drive buy of all AWS-3 spectrum at much higher prices

@AyeAye_CAPT they should have contributed it INTO this auction!

Unclear why $VZ is not buying $SATS remaining AWS-3 spectrum before someone else ends up stepping in.

@BeckDavidsonV @dan_tmt 100 pct agree. $4B of pro forma FCF and synergies wish likely platform combined debt in 3 years. Could see potential synergies with Starlink as well

@dan_tmt SATS needed to quash the bonds' de facto veto over a DBS acquisition of DTV (which is the reverse of Origo's thesis). My bet is SATS takes control of the combined entity, as what other exit does TPG have for DTV? This would crystalize $5-$10bn equity value for SATS.

I don't see what $SATS gained by going through with this fight with bondholders. Maybe they thought they had a better case before the lawsuit happened? Feels like the same way the fight with vendors is going to go.

@brad_patnaude @origoinvest Missing the big picture here. Ergen will take majority control of DBS/DTV and synergies much larger. Pro forma $4-5B of FCF and pro forma debt of $12

@origoinvest this potentially clears the way to get another $10ish billion of debt off the enterprise balance sheet tho.... The only reason to do this is for DTV deal IMO... I thought $SATS would have moved more on this news.

Had a moment to briefly scan through the RSA on the EchoStar DISH DBS restructuring Lots of moving parts but in short: (i) paydown of DBS SubscriberCo TL and preferred shares (ii) paydown of all the 2026 Notes (iii) funded via settlement of InterCo loans (through DNC) (iv) $125M Claims Settlement (v) further protections / cash sweep on residual notes Per my initial note the clean-up paves the way for a combination with DirecTV (and only makes sense in that context given the non-recourse nature of the OpCo debt). The RSA/TS is also riddled with references to a potential transaction. From a pure numbers perspective we know this is irrelevant to the core EchoStar $SATS thesis. Fwiw I estimate the deal to be cash neutral to the business on a >4.25x FY25 EBITDA sale to DirecTV. The value here is in accelerating the transition towards a new narrative as a Space Investment HoldCo, shedding legacy luggage and repositioning the Company with a new shareholder base.

@peter_adderton @brad_patnaude Tried to build something great and failed. No shame in that. Obviously did not want to sell but had a back-up plan and played pretty well. Will be worth much more than if he sold his dying DBS business to VZ or T years ago. Have you even raised any outside capital?

Only logical path? Really If burning billions, losing subs, watching churn rise, ARPU fall, and still being nowhere near competitive scale is the onlylogical path you and I have a different meaning of the word logic. Yes, Boost can post gross adds. So could anyone with enough promo spend and handset subsidies. The question isn’t gross adds it’s net adds, retention, and sustainable economics and on that MobileX out did Boost by greater than 100,000 .. And if the grand outcome of this “only path” is to fail at everything you set out to build that’s not a strategy. Getting spectrum “to market fast” only matters if you build something durable with it. selling the spectrum was Not EchoStar’s wish or plan even to this day but FCC said you have failed ? if it was not there plan to build it out then don’t tell the tower guys.😀

"On today’s call analysts didn’t express much interest in EchoStar’s legacy (and declining) businesses, including Dish TV, Sling TV and HughesNet internet. Analysts also showed little interest in EchoStar’s wireless business Boost Mobile now that it’s divesting its spectrum and decommissioning its 5G assets, other than to ask about the vendor situation." @BrendanCarrFCC @JusticeATR @FCC They showed little interest because it’s of little interest to them. If that’s the case, then force them to sell the retail wireless business you effectively gifted them just like you did with Spectrum. Both assets are clearly underutilized, and both would likely be far more valuable in the hands of operators who actually want to invest in and grow them.

@peter_adderton @brad_patnaude Please stop. It was only logical path (getting spectrum to market fast) and Boost still doing 650k more gross adds than X/quarter. Will just end up with Starlink as a viable MNO competitor in rural/suburban areas

@chlytle33 @brad_patnaude Analysts we looking at the companies performance not following Brendan Carr and FCC and Trumps involvement in bailing them out.

@peter_adderton @brad_patnaude Who cares what analysts ask on call. They were ones that missed $15 to $115 so don’t think they are capable of asking anything remotely useful on remaining assets which are generating $2B of cash flow with no capex and $15-30B of net cash/spectrum plus optionality on DBS/DTV

@brad_patnaude Have they basically turned into a family office whose main asset is SpaceX stock? 😂

@CCapLP Him saying nothing is a good thing. Trust me

$SATS -- I am very ready for Hamid to leave Echostar. He says absolutely nothing.

@HedgeyeComm @grok @TSOH_Investing For global tower infrastructure in rural areas (where tower economics never made any sense, spectrum would allow SpaceX to go after $15-40B opportunity. US opp is likely 20k towers (2 carriers at $4k all-in costs/month) and global opp 10X bigger

@grok @TSOH_Investing What was the strategic reason for their purchase of Echostar spectrum?

Dan Sundheim on SpaceX: "The telecom market globally is now the TAM... They've come so far down the cost curve that I think in a relatively short time - months or a few years - they'll be dramatically cheaper than any other form of delivering broadband." Fantastic interview, thank you for sharing @patrick_oshag youtube.com/watch?v=mBtmTm…

@HedgeyeComm @grok @TSOH_Investing Extension is huge market for them. Go after profitable rural/suburban markets and even low density tower business and force carriers to partner in urban. Slow bleed

@PeterDiamandis My bet is that orbital datacenters are a small niche and that the forecasts are obvious nonsense It’s a multi-variable problem not just energy. And space compute fails on most of the other variables linkedin.com/posts/deanbubl…

@WaltLightShed @SriniGopalan Which band?

“We walked away from the Echostar spectrum. We fundamentally believed it was too expensive” - @SriniGopalan $TMUS $SATS

@aaronburnett 100 pct agree. If you believe compute/intelligence is as big as the valuations suggest, space DC are inevitable and China racing there as well. Undoubtedly, it will involve government sponsored programs & funding. Just wait until more states put halt on terrestrial builds

David Friedberg on All-in this week asking about what happens if Elon is successful with space data centers. What stuck out to me is he frames his question on China as if they aren’t already pursuing this. Similar to energy generation investment at large China is ahead of space data centers (from a national planning and commitment perspective). Obviously China has several national champions pursuing different strategies and launched early tests on their “Three Body Problem Compute Constellation” over 6 months ago. It’s a bit surprising how few even know that simple fact. I think it would help the national narrative if we stopped pretending like this science project from an overly optimistic trillionaire and position it that way it should be… as arguably the most important international infrastructure race of the early 21st century. We’re lucky that Elon is leading that charge with the massive Starship upmass and cost advantage today. I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see a US national imperative in similar scale to Golden Dome in 2028-2029 time frame.