Daniel Brönnimann

@ProfessorPape @grok was meinst du dazu

The Iran ceasefire is being called a “pause.” It’s not. It’s a revelation: The U.S. used overwhelming force—and still could not control the outcome. That’s a structural shift in power.

@RealVision As a former pro member of RV I am asking myself when will be the time for Raoul showing up and admitting for being wrong. At least this would give him some credits.

Two charts for your weekend... ISM: 48.8 in October. 52.7 in March. BTC is down 50% in the same window. The old BTC-ISM correlation just broke down in real time. Someone mapped every cycle back to 2013 and found the reason: BTC doesn't trade the ISM. It trades liquidity.

FINAL SHAKEOUT: Bitcoin just dropped under $66k, and many people are panicking. If you’ve been paying attention and able to read between the lines you know this is an OPPORTUNITY One day many people will be begging to buy at these prices.

@ZssBecker You better have enjoyed your birthday with some good friends in Europe last year. It's not all about money.

With all the spare time I have from crippling alt coin poverty... I finally made the anime intro for our come back vid. (Sneak peak and turn on sound, it has lyrics about the bear market lol). Saturday will be...weird. Whoever points out the most easter eggs wins a pickle.

@ZssBecker Few weeks ago you said you would exit by year end....

2026 is going to be the biggest bull in crypto history and it’s kind of obvious.

@BittelJulien @RealVision Appreciate your posts. Even though you were expecting BTC at around 140k by end of June, start of July 2025. Everything else is up but crypto. Something is strange.... wonder if you feel the same...

I wanted to share a few thoughts on liquidity from last week’s MIT report that dropped on @RealVision. Hope it’s helpful… Regarding liquidity, we’ve seen a small tick lower in our GMI Total Liquidity Index this month, but that’s almost entirely being driven by the rebuild of the TGA and the government shutdown, which temporarily halted the drain. However, this too shall pass... Remember, weak lagging employment data is what keeps the Fed engaged, or in GMI lingo, MOAR COWBELL… Lower rates then feed through to more rate-sensitive and leading areas of the economy like housing, and this drives the business cycle higher… it’s a recursive feedback loop. Once this shutdown ends, the liquidity taps will open again in a big way. We’ll see TGA spend, rate cuts, the end of QT, probably a repo tweak to ease tightness, talk of eSLR relief in January, and a pivot back to an "ample reserves" regime as QT winds down. That’s a wall of liquidity coming, and that’s just the US… It also feels to us that the lead time of financial conditions, looking at this chart (chart 1), may have actually increased a little since the start of 2023 versus our GMI Total Liquidity Index. I’m not going to adjust it to overfit the chart, but it’s almost a perfect fit if I adjust the lead to six months for this period. Either way, I believe we’re going higher. As a reminder, this is how the phasing works between financial conditions, liquidity, and the ISM (chart 2): GMI Financial Conditions Index > GMI Total Liquidity Index > ISM I also think the view that the liquidity cycle will peak early next year isn’t going to be right. Feels too early for that. Let me explain… You see, The Everything Code’s debt refinancing cycle plays out in two major phases. Phase one is where rates need to come down first. In China, that’s largely happened over the past two years as the economy struggled, with 10-year yields falling from around 3% at the start of 2023 to 1.6% by early this year. I pushed back pretty hard at the time against the consensus view that this collapse in rates was bearish. Instead, I argued it was a massive easing of financial conditions coming from the East. Now that’s happened, phase two of The Everything Code can play out. Debts can be rolled at more sustainable levels, and with the dollar now weaker, the PBoC can deploy its balance sheet, which this month hit a record high and could reach around $8 trillion by the end of 2026 (chart 3). That, in my view, would likely mark the peak of the liquidity cycle, with China playing a major role. So again, this all suggests to me that liquidity is heading higher in 2026... It’s also worth remembering that back in 2017, the Fed was hiking rates and liquidity injections were basically flat. The real liquidity came from the PBoC and, to a lesser extent, the ECB and BoJ. Yet despite the Fed being sidelined, Bitcoin and other risk assets ripped higher. Raoul and I have talked about this a lot… Everyone is too focused on the US and what the Fed is doing. What really matters is that our GMI Total Liquidity Index continues to trend higher, because that captures all of it. Additionally, our GMI Global Excess Liquidity Composite measures how much liquidity exists in the system beyond what’s being consumed by nominal GDP. This “excess liquidity” can be, and always is, financialized... If you look at the chart, since the mid-1980s, equity valuations have tracked almost perfectly, roughly six months behind moves in excess liquidity (chart 4). So this still points to further equity re-rating ahead... What’s the bottom line? We’re still bullish. The delay in the TGA drain and the Trump tariff scare on the 10th have been painful, but ultimately, they’re just noise. We believe a more dovish Fed, rising PBoC liquidity, and strong Q4 seasonals are all lining up to push this market higher into year-end. At the end of the day, it always comes back to liquidity, and we still see liquidity rising...

@SmartMoneyCrpto You will surely find a doc that is doing it, then you can first try it there. I bought this machine for home use.

@SmartMoneyCrpto No, it's Ozone, O3. Check out: simplyo3.com/?srsltid=AfmBO… Let me know if you tried it.

How mad is this, I got tonsillitis recently and docs prescribed me antibiotics, after finishing the course all my long covid symptoms have gone, no fatigue, no brain fog and I feel like myself again. I’m out on my motorbike, ready to exercise, full of energy. I spoke to the others with long Covid and nearly all of them said, yep, same for me all symptoms disappeared and they felt normal again. Even my body stress/inflammation for the first time in 12 months went from extreme orange and red to blue (healthy). Unfortunately the others said all their symptoms came back after 2-3 weeks. Interesting data and some hope for any one with long covid (around 2m in uk now). We’ll see if my symptoms come back in a few weeks but even if they do seems some options.

@DrProfitCrypto If you wouldn't behave like a freaking idiot and egomaniac here, people would forgive you for your false assumptions. You were right many times and celebrated it like an egocentric... Wait for the answer from the crowd if you are wrong this time.... It will be hell!

To give you a visual explanation of what’s in my mind in an extreme bearish case, don’t be a low IQ and take this chart as a perfect template, because not everything can be seen in advance. But it illustrates how I believe things unfold into year end and early 2026. I expect bearish months ahead, with bounces and short-term opportunities in between. The overall market structure remains EXTREME bearish. For those asking why we placed recent altcoin buy orders, its to capture the bounce that is likely to happen in 90-94k region. I see it aligning with the broader market in the coming weeks. Once that bounce exhausts, I expect more continuation to the downside. Remember: markets need traps to fuel the next leg down. We can either use the traps in our favor, ride the bounce, take profits, and position for the next wave lower or stay out of the market till we see a capitulation.

@RaoulGMI Many thanks Raoul, honestly I didn't know that (and how)I can do this, will ask Milton. My username Phreak79, sorry I am technically not very skilled. Appreciate it!

@danbroenni Why dont you message Jamie directly on the RV platform?

@RaoulGMI Hi Raoul, I am a RV Pro member. Unfortunately I don't understand the tweet from Jamie Coutts... am a bit worried about this 50% BTC correction. Would it be possible for you to make it understandable... either here on X or via your AMA today at 5pm? Appreciate it! Dan

#Bitcoin: A downside move of just 4% was enough to trigger the largest liquidations since the beginning of the year. It proves what I told you days ago, the real liquidity sits below, not above. The herd is overexposed, and the herd is always wrong! My big short is printing

@JamesEastonUK @RaoulGMI Thanks mate, I gave you a follow on YT

@danbroenni @RaoulGMI Hey mate, always welcome. I did a price prediction a few days ago, all of my videos also get put onto YouTube. You can see it here. youtu.be/X1euHU2iSZQ?si…

Video UPdate 📽️ $SUI 💧 - SUI vs SOL & ETH ✅ - SUI Thread by @RaoulGMI ✅ - Price Colour Coded by Risk ✅ Higher. 💥

@TedPillows Posting this all day long doesn't make the dip happen

Grayscale just sold $45,030,000 in $BTC. Big players are selling Bitcoin.

@DrProfitCrypto You should probably watch RV take on the business cycle, Raoul Pal, Julien Bittel

MACRO ECONOMY IS IN BIG DANGER! First and more importantly, no matter when the recession crash happens, either in the next weeks or in Q1-Q2 2026 as described below, the 90-94k Bitcoin target remains regardless! The yield curve is one of the best leading indicators of the economy. It compares the interest paid on short-term US government bonds (2-year) with long-term bonds (10-year). Normally, long bonds pay more because you are lending for longer. That’s called a positive spread. When the opposite happens and short bonds pay more, it’s called an inversion. An inversion signals that investors expect trouble ahead and that the Fed will be forced to cut rates. The yield curve (10Y–2Y) inverted on July 5, 2022 and stayed inverted for 784 days, the longest inversion in U.S. history. Every single recession of the last 50 years has been preceded by this signal. On Aug 27, 2024 the curve flipped back positive (+0.56%). History shows the crash comes ALWAYS after normalization, not during inversion. Same happened in 1990, 2001, 2007 and now most recently in 2024-2025. Looking back at history, the lag between normalization and the start of a recession (Market Crash) was always short. In 1990, the recession began about 180 days after the curve turned positive. In 2001, it took only 60 days. In 2007, it was around 180 days again. So historically the lag has been in the 2–6 month range, but this cycle the inversion itself lasted much longer than any other cycle in history (784 days). The Fed already began cutting rates before a recession started, similar to what happened in 2001. The labor market is only now starting to weaken, with unemployment rising to 4.3% and job growth heavily revised down. So this time the clock is running much longer, 550–650 days but history still says the outcome is the same. A recessionary crash is coming, only with a bigger delay. So as per the calendar when should it start? We are now entering the high risk area in which the recession (Market crash) is going to hit the markets hard. Now, till Q2 2026 is high risk area and the big crash is going to happen in this timeline. On top of it Bond market SCREAMS HIGH RISK: 10Y \~4.05%, 2Y \~3.47%. Falling yields + positive spread are not bullish. This is exactly what we saw before 2001 and 2007 crashes, “back to normal” that was actually the calm before the storm. My Position The last post about the Inversion/ Positive spread recession indicator is one more confirming indicator for the big downside move and many of you missed the MAIN point. The next decisive move is BTC tagging 90–94K. The plan has not changed and I’ve said it for a month: sell 10% of spot daily into strength and load shorts whenever the market offers the 115–125K distribution zone. Because price slipped below our main short window, we’ve already executed 70% capital sits in USDT/shorts, and the remaining 30% spot is waiting for a retest of the short zone to unload and add even more shorts. That playbook is crystal clear. What happens after 90–94K? It’s too early to tell for now: either we print 90K and MOVE TOWARDS 140K before the recession crash, or the recession crash starts in the coming weeks, both events are highly likely and its early to tell. Again, 90-94k region is clear and this has to come. 90–94K gets hit. From there, depending on sentiment and short‑term signals, we either take the tactical 90K → 140K ride or sit tight in a very profitable short for lower targets if recession fear increases. Do not confuse the 90K correction with the recession leg, they are different events. 90K is coming regardless! If the crash timing is early–mid 2026, there’s room from 90K toward 140K before the top and the recession crash. These are the following scenarions: 1. BTC will continue in its "Short area range", later on dump to 90–94K 2. A major recessionary crash, think 1990/2001/2008 is ahead. Timing risk is at max now and extends through June 2026. Even on a 90K bounce, any long we take will be treated as high‑risk and managed with high risk management, because I’m 99% confident the crash lands between now and Q2 2026. I hope that makes it clear !

@gordongekko I really appreciate your posts, except those ones about your sources at White House/BlackRock etc.... that never are the truth. I wonder why you are doing this?

President Trump is making an announcement from the Oval Office at 2PM EST. My sources say it will be HUGE!

@benjamincowen Yes please Ben, I am watching but can't see it on the little screen 🙏

I always forget this, my bad

@DrProfitCrypto You are such an idiot

Repeat after me: Bitcoin goes below 100k in September Bitcoin goes below 100k in September Bitcoin goes below 100k in September Bitcoin goes below 100k in September Bitcoin goes below 100k in September Bitcoin goes below 100k in September