DanielP

Back to the market. Oil is surging, volatility is expanding, and sentiment is quickly turning bearish—that’s your first clue. When fear spreads wildly, you have to start thinking contrary. But let’s be clear: Powell has signaled he’s on hold until there’s clarity out of the Middle East. That means uncertainty remains the dominant force—for now. After last week’s meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that further evidence of easing inflation is required before additional policy easing is considered: “If we don’t see that progress, then you won’t see the rate cut.” Market expectations have shifted. In just a week, bond traders moved from anticipating rate cuts to pricing in roughly a 50.0 percent probability of a rate hike by October. In Europe, markets are now pricing in as many as three ECB rate hikes by year-end. Recession risk is rising as the Iran conflict prolongs and oil prices are elevated. A slowing U.S. economy could hurt corporate profits and also exacerbate emerging stresses in the private credit market. At some point, we’re going to get a sharp snapback rally. That’s inevitable. But don’t confuse a reflex rally with a new uptrend. Some of the most powerful rallies happen inside bear markets and major corrections—they trap the impatient and reward them with whipsaw action. The market is news driven. If this conflict resolves quickly and favorably, we could see a classic V-shaped recovery. If not, the market is going to likely need time to repair to establish a durable bottom. Oil will eventually present a good shorting opportunity. Equities will bottom. But timing is everything—and for the low-risk trader, volatility is the enemy. That's why I’m never concerned with buying at the lowest price—I want the right price. I want alpha, and I want it fast and efficient. Grinding for pennies in chaotic conditions is for gamblers and action jumkies. Those are hard-penny environments—and that’s where amateurs get chopped up. Professionals have what I call sit-out power—the discipline to wait for easy-dollar conditions, when the odds are clearly in your favor. How long do they wait? As long as it takes. That's where the discipline comes in. minervini.com

Perhaps Miran recognizes that if the Fed starts hiking from here and throws the US economy into a recession, it will give China the opportunity to establish a stronger foothold in long term global trade. (see my report below)

El video del profesor Jiang al que Mariano de @nofinancieros hace referencia en Los dineros 12.26 youtu.be/2K2nQsTTjQE?is…

Hay fondos de Inversión que pagan por estos análisis @nofinancieros con su club y canal te lo da gratis ORO MOLIDO🪙🪎.... UN TIO INTELIGENTE, VIVO, VIAJADO, Y UNA DEDUCIONES TREMENDAS Y REALES. Seguirle y subcribiros si no queréis estar perdidos... youtu.be/vL_ZfpWuuDg?is…

this is excellent >GitLab founder diagnosed with rare cancer (osteosarcoma) >standard care works but cancer comes back later >medical team says there's not much else to do >"It became my own job to keep myself alive. Nobody else was going to do it for me at this point" >starts researching, assembles his own medical team, uses AI for deep research >“I’ll talk to anyone, I’ll go anywhere, and I can be there anytime" to collect information >does as many diagnostic tests as he can find as often as he can (maximal diagnostics) >develops his own therapeutic ladder with repurposed drugs, personalized medicine, etc >Sid’s cancer currently in remission

@BitacoraBolsa Excelente, didáctico y con detalle. Foco en la protección patrimonial, más contenido como este se necesita

Artículo en abierto: ¿Por qué estoy en liquidez desde el viernes? Timing beats time in the market! Te cuento por qué el viernes vendí con ganancias para pasar a liquidez, por qué no ampliar en las bajadas, y por qué no me voy a perder ninguna subida shorturl.at/6hUVR

Son las cinco y nadie del Gobierno ha felicitado ni el Domingo de Ramos y ni el inicio de la Semana Santa a los católicos. Para felicitar el Ramadán, una fiesta que nada tiene que ver con España, se dieron mucha prisa.

The Fed's worst nightmare is materializing in front of our eyes. What is often overlooked is that the Fed primarily controls demand-side inflation, not supply-side inflation. In other words, it can influence how much people borrow and spend, but it cannot directly increase supply, like producing more oil. This means that in the case of a supply-shock, as we are seeing now with energy prices, the Fed often has to overcompensate on the demand-side to contain inflation, and vice-versa. During the pandemic in 2020, this meant effectively cutting interest rates to zero, as lockdowns triggered a sharp collapse in demand alongside widespread supply disruptions. With oil and gas prices skyrocketing, our models suggest US CPI inflation is set to rise toward 3.5%, or 150 basis points above the Fed's long-run target. In a vacuum chamber, this means the Fed should tighten policy and theoretically hike rates. However, the issue becomes the fact that the US labor market is objectively at its weakest point in years, and it has not improved despite recent Fed easing. Therefore, if the Fed hikes interest rates now, the US is positioning itself for a full-blown labor market crisis. On the flip side, if the Fed does not tighten its policy stance, US CPI inflation could potentially even exceed 4.0%, depending on how long the Iran War persists, and how long the post-war recovery takes. In a sudden turn of events, the Fed is now forced to pick between 3.5%+ inflation or 5.0%+ unemployment. The Fed is in a very bad spot.

@dapreal4 Se llegó a decir que era la mejor empresa del mundo. Pump & dump, historia de la bolsa otra vez...

Burford Capital era bastante mítica hace unos años en el Value patrio y algunos fondos independientes ¿Os suena que alguno la tenga ahora? -42% lleva ahora mismo

who's buying the dip? ;)

I think I finally solved the stock market.

What a difference a headline makes.

What a great summary: Debt tends to build up over multiple credit cycles in the private sector, until it reaches its absolute limits. At that point, rather than mass defaults occurring, money usually gets printed and the debt starts to get rotated up onto the sovereign level via much larger fiscal deficits. Then, when debt builds up significantly on the sovereign level, the next release valve is through inflationary currency debasement and major political resets.

The Global Stagflationary Squeeze Global flash PMIs give us an early read on the macro pressure from the oil shock. It's an ugly sight with inflation spiking and the demand outlook collapsing after just a few weeks into the Iran war. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-global-s…

What if the entire gold and silver jump was insiders front running retail? There was no war. No crisis. But gold was up 65% anyway. Here's the full story. Central banks started buying gold like never before. China, Russia, India, Poland buying for three straight years. More than 3,000 tonnes bought between 2022 and 2025. Double their historical pace. This started the moment the US froze Russia's dollar reserves in 2022. Every country on Earth got the same message that day. Dollar reserves can be seized overnight. Gold cannot. But central banks weren't the only ones buying. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and Citi were ALL quietly accumulating gold and simultaneously publishing research reports telling YOU to buy. JP Morgan said Gold will hit $6,300 Morgan Stanley said Bull case $5,700. They were buying at $2,000. Writing reports at $4,000 and telling retail to buy at $5,000. Unlike central banks who buy gold to HOLD forever, institutions buy gold to SELL. Central banks hold gold as a reserve asset. Institutions hold gold as a trade. From 2022 to 2026, gold pumped almost 250% and added $28 trillion to its market cap. Then retail joined late when gold went vertical in January 2026. Regular investors saw the numbers. ETF inflows hit all time records. Everyone piling in right as the people who bought at $1,800 needed an exit. Then the war started. US and Israel struck Iran on February 28. Oil supply disrupted. Strait of Hormuz threatened. Every reason for gold to explode was on the table. Retail thought this was the moment. But since the war started, gold is down 25%. Why did gold FALL during a war? Because institutions needed an exit and the war gave them the perfect cover. Oil spiked → inflation fears → rates stay high → gold loses its appeal → stop losses triggered → margin calls hit → algorithms accelerated the dump. The retail buyer became the exit liquidity. In simple terms: Central banks built the floor. Institutions built the hype. Retail provided the exit. The war pulled the trigger. Insiders loaded up at $1,800. Wrote reports at $4,000. Sold to retail at $5,500. Gold dumped below $4,200 today. The oldest trade in finance, Played perfectly.

In 1870, a German chemist named Erich von Wolf was analysing the iron content of various vegetables. He made a decimal point error. He recorded spinach as containing 35mg of iron per 100g. The correct figure was 3.5mg. The misplaced decimal sat in the nutritional literature for decades, entirely unchallenged, because nobody particularly felt like re-testing spinach. In 1929, the Popeye comic strip launched. The creators cited the iron content of spinach as the scientific basis for their character's powers. By this point, the decimal point error was already sixty years old and fully embedded in received nutritional wisdom. The error was identified and corrected in 1937. The correction was not issued with anything approaching the cultural reach of the original claim. Popeye continued punching things. The actual iron content of spinach, 3.5mg per 100g, roughly where it was always supposed to be, is further complicated by the fact that spinach is among the highest-oxalate vegetables known. Oxalates bind to iron and calcium in the gut and remove them before absorption. The iron in spinach absorbs at around 1–2%, compared to 15–35% for haem iron from red meat. You would need to eat roughly a kilogram of spinach to absorb the iron equivalent of a 100g beef steak. There is also the kidney stone question. Spinach contains around 970mg of oxalates per 100g: one of the densest plant sources. Chronic high spinach consumption, particularly raw in daily smoothies, is a documented pathway to calcium oxalate kidney stones. The smoothie industry has not issued a correction. Popeye is still a sailor.

No voy a desarrollar esto. Lo cuento para los que estéis aquí en unos años: Hay un catalizador que puede hacer que deje de trabajar a los ≈42. Depende del resultado de las elecciones autonómicas de mayo 27, no es broma (en realidad estaría casi obligado a hacerlo). Os contaré.

@jbegno1 De 7000 a 6000 en el SP sería una caida del 14-15% que no es nada descartable, además coincide con el abanico de @BitacoraBolsa en los ~6100, y ahora tienen "argumentos" para tirarlo rápido abajo

Cuando lo NORMAL era 1 evento de estás características cada 6 años, ahora hemos tenido 4 eventos de caída cercana o superior al 20% en solo 7 años. ¿Vendrá otro en 2026? #SP500

Aren’t you entertained 😂 Efficient market never mispriced everything has been priced in advance ✍️ Informed minority knows money has no intrinsic value, uninformed majority didn’t know 👀 Banks ALREADY printed infinite money, the poor becomes poorer and the rich gets richer! 🤫

Este es el nivel en el que, por magnitud y también por estar violando algunos niveles clave, está empezando una corrección de verdad en el S&P 500. Lo sorprendente es que esto no hubiera ocurrido mucho antes. Ahora sí empiezan los fuegos artificiales y la presión contra Trump.