daniel

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daniel

daniel

@danielalready_

burrow and curry better than ur favorite players

Katılım Şubat 2025
111 Takip Edilen4 Takipçiler
GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
For this week's episode, @Sports__Proj and I interview @troycuban . A Kalshi trader closing in on $1m in public profits who "hasn't originated a thing in my life". Troy is active in RFQs along with other strategies - leave some questions below. This is for the top-downers!
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Chris
Chris@Flupnolide·
Having a position against wemby fucking SUCKS. This feels like betting against brady in the 2 minute drill
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@yaboi_Kr @mattkalish @Kalshi very possible, but I think the over-the-top kalshi advertising, especially the tiktok "random girl easily won 36 months of rent and you can too," has to be deceitful, especially with the backend data they have. do agree some (maybe most) believe they are doing a net good though
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KR
KR@yaboi_Kr·
@danielalready_ @mattkalish @Kalshi i do think there’s a % of the c suite that genuinely believes in the “decentralization” ethos (more for Poly than Kalshi, but this sort of prisoner’s dilemma duopoly they have means they act/think in tandem) not sure if it’s entirely deceitful and not just misguided belief
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
Odds of us getting gaslit by Tarek in any random Kalshi video you open? Yes - 98% No - 2%
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@mattkalish @Kalshi Agree, do you think most will catch on, or the marketing will be too much? rfq quoters blocking certain ids has been known forever but I don't think consumers will ever care enough, more of a regulatory issue no?
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
@danielalready_ @Kalshi Kalshi / Wall Street / CFTC want to book sports In the process decided to put a massive PR and Marketing engine around a completely invented way they claim to serve the market (eg not limiting sharps, open free market, better prices, etc) and it’s all coming out as lies now.
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@mattkalish explain it, I genuinely would like to listen. you are much more knowledgable than I ever will be, but saying there is nothing on exchanges remotely close to traditional sportsbooks is insane to me when prices are similar/better
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
@danielalready_ Brother it’s not even close. If that was true they wouldn’t have shut off the data eg dune after this was reported. It’s not remotely close. I can explain it but can’t make u understand if you don’t want to
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@mattkalish since then, prices have tightened and on a bet-by-bet basis kalshi is comparable on straights and better on most parlays. If recs are getting a better price on the same bets it is unlikely they are losing noticeably faster than dk/fd
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@mattkalish dont have the raw data, but probably does not account for bonus bets/welcome bonuses that inflate early p/l on sportsbooks but not on kalshi. also according to this, data started July 2025 when liq was lower and combos weren't event released next.io/news/predictio…
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@mattkalish mms are posting fd/pinny fairs with a lower juice. recs will still lose betting parlays on kalshi, but will lose slower. Agreed that the transparency on kalshi's end is a major hurdle and fd/dk is better, but getting a larger payout for the same wager is net good for rec bettors
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Matt Kalish
Matt Kalish@mattkalish·
If they are posting FD prices that means they are posting at -110 or -115 and just not being honest that they built in the 10c margin. Then you pay Kalshi fees on top and then you don’t get any rewards where it is 30-40% on DK FD etc. it’s way worse and that’s why ppl lose so much faster in exchanges. At least a book will keep it real and you see what the spread is like -110 on both sides or whatever.
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NFLtakes
NFLtakes@ChiefsWashed·
Offseason qb tiers : Clear top: josh Unknown: lamar Very good: burrow, daniels, mahomes Clearly good: maye, dak Good: stafford, jlove, baker Solid: purdy, goff, herbert, stroud, kyler Bad but playable: caleb, bryce, nix Could be good: dart, mendoza,
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@Rishibets think too many people argue the semantics of the scenario while feigning ignorance to the actual question
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Rishi
Rishi@Rishibets·
I think maybe the main roadblock with this bonus bet thing might be that people just don't realize how much 10k is worth to an average guy who doesn't have significant money set aside for betting
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GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
Hi all - this week we are making an episode on managing risk on prediction markets in all forms. (not getting knight capital-ed, combo exposure, capital return, adverse selection, etc..) If you have questions on this topic or in general for me and @Sports__Proj leave them below
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
the las vegas aces just bankrupted me
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@PredMTrader do you think my landlord will start accepting aura?
daniel tweet media
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
spurs game 2 and rockets tonight gotta be 2 of the most demoralizing losses ive had
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daniel retweetledi
💍💍💍💍
💍💍💍💍@warriorsger·
The dopamine rush of scrolling through twitter after your favorite player had an all time great performance
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daniel
daniel@danielalready_·
@Flupnolide looking for a <redacted> unpaid summer intern?
daniel tweet media
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