daniel

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj @troycuban how long has he been quoting rfqs and has he seen the change in competition in that time. what has he done in response?

For this week's episode, @Sports__Proj and I interview @troycuban . A Kalshi trader closing in on $1m in public profits who "hasn't originated a thing in my life". Troy is active in RFQs along with other strategies - leave some questions below. This is for the top-downers!

@Flupnolide he looks mortal now

Having a position against wemby fucking SUCKS. This feels like betting against brady in the 2 minute drill

@yaboi_Kr @mattkalish @Kalshi very possible, but I think the over-the-top kalshi advertising, especially the tiktok "random girl easily won 36 months of rent and you can too," has to be deceitful, especially with the backend data they have. do agree some (maybe most) believe they are doing a net good though

@danielalready_ @mattkalish @Kalshi i do think there’s a % of the c suite that genuinely believes in the “decentralization” ethos (more for Poly than Kalshi, but this sort of prisoner’s dilemma duopoly they have means they act/think in tandem) not sure if it’s entirely deceitful and not just misguided belief

Odds of us getting gaslit by Tarek in any random Kalshi video you open? Yes - 98% No - 2%

@ShipTheJustice @mattkalish @Kalshi should've said regulation in general

@danielalready_ @mattkalish @Kalshi ** a veneer ** of keeping cftc regulation. they effectively are the fucking cftc

@mattkalish @Kalshi Agree, do you think most will catch on, or the marketing will be too much? rfq quoters blocking certain ids has been known forever but I don't think consumers will ever care enough, more of a regulatory issue no?

@danielalready_ @Kalshi Kalshi / Wall Street / CFTC want to book sports In the process decided to put a massive PR and Marketing engine around a completely invented way they claim to serve the market (eg not limiting sharps, open free market, better prices, etc) and it’s all coming out as lies now.

@mattkalish explain it, I genuinely would like to listen. you are much more knowledgable than I ever will be, but saying there is nothing on exchanges remotely close to traditional sportsbooks is insane to me when prices are similar/better

@danielalready_ Brother it’s not even close. If that was true they wouldn’t have shut off the data eg dune after this was reported. It’s not remotely close. I can explain it but can’t make u understand if you don’t want to

Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)

@mattkalish since then, prices have tightened and on a bet-by-bet basis kalshi is comparable on straights and better on most parlays. If recs are getting a better price on the same bets it is unlikely they are losing noticeably faster than dk/fd

@mattkalish dont have the raw data, but probably does not account for bonus bets/welcome bonuses that inflate early p/l on sportsbooks but not on kalshi. also according to this, data started July 2025 when liq was lower and combos weren't event released next.io/news/predictio…

@mattkalish mms are posting fd/pinny fairs with a lower juice. recs will still lose betting parlays on kalshi, but will lose slower. Agreed that the transparency on kalshi's end is a major hurdle and fd/dk is better, but getting a larger payout for the same wager is net good for rec bettors

If they are posting FD prices that means they are posting at -110 or -115 and just not being honest that they built in the 10c margin. Then you pay Kalshi fees on top and then you don’t get any rewards where it is 30-40% on DK FD etc. it’s way worse and that’s why ppl lose so much faster in exchanges. At least a book will keep it real and you see what the spread is like -110 on both sides or whatever.

@ChiefsWashed thoughts on hurts/darnold?

Offseason qb tiers : Clear top: josh Unknown: lamar Very good: burrow, daniels, mahomes Clearly good: maye, dak Good: stafford, jlove, baker Solid: purdy, goff, herbert, stroud, kyler Bad but playable: caleb, bryce, nix Could be good: dart, mendoza,

@Rishibets think too many people argue the semantics of the scenario while feigning ignorance to the actual question

I think maybe the main roadblock with this bonus bet thing might be that people just don't realize how much 10k is worth to an average guy who doesn't have significant money set aside for betting

@goldenpants013 @Sports__Proj how has life situation (age/job/family) changed your tolerance to risk if at all?

Hi all - this week we are making an episode on managing risk on prediction markets in all forms. (not getting knight capital-ed, combo exposure, capital return, adverse selection, etc..) If you have questions on this topic or in general for me and @Sports__Proj leave them below

the las vegas aces just bankrupted me

@PredMTrader do you think my landlord will start accepting aura?

Sharp takers have so much more aura than makers

spurs game 2 and rockets tonight gotta be 2 of the most demoralizing losses ive had

The dopamine rush of scrolling through twitter after your favorite player had an all time great performance

@Flupnolide looking for a <redacted> unpaid summer intern?

@danielalready_ Agression and quick thinking

Decided to make a substack to get some random thoughts out. Probably my only post: flupnolide.substack.com/p/scaling-a-be…