Dan Krulwich

The astounding thing about the Florida Legislative Special Elections tonight is the Independent/NPA voting: ~75% (!!!) voted for the Dems, just 25% for the Reps. This OBVIOUSLY won't be the case in the midterms, but this vote was Republican+8 in 2024.

Although prev held by a Dem who was uncontested, Democrat Chasity Martinez won the Special Election in Louisiana's House District 60 tonight. She outran Democrat John Bel Edwards's 2019 race for Governor margin by about a point. John Bel Edwards won Louisiana by almost 3%.

@spectt69 @CalltoActivism Who had control of redistricting in 2001 in New York?

@CalltoActivism "Donald Trump started this redistricting war" Democrats have been doing this for decades... This is a real district in New York City:

🚨BREAKING!!! GAME ON!!! The Supreme Court just green-lighted California's new voter-approved Prop 50 map after rejecting an emergency request by the California Republican Party and the Trump administration to override an appeals court and block the map. Dems are now positioned for a potential +5 seat pickup. Gov. Gavin Newsom of California issued a statement: "Donald Trump said he was ‘entitled’ to five more congressional seats in Texas. He started this redistricting war. He lost, and he’ll lose again in November.” LFG!!!

Beto O'Rourke won the district outright in his '18 Senate run (& Paxton lost it in his '18 AG run). Writing these districts off & incumbents fleeing to safe districts continues to be a problem for Dems and likely cost them the House (and 2 years of legislating) in '22.

Regardless of the final outcome in the Texas Senate special election - folks who think it was never competitive are simply ignoring the trends: Obama lost the seat by 30, Clinton by 22, Biden by 13. This seat, and its corresponding Congressional District, are in play for Dems.

I don't know about "expert" but will be on with Jordan in about 20 minutes to talk about the 2024 election!

@Speeding_max @GalenMetzger1 But, a cool way to look at it is that Clinton got 40.6% of the vote in 2016, so even with the apparent rightward swing of the WOW counties in this election, a lot of this overall leftward swing is permanent.

@Speeding_max @GalenMetzger1 In the primary (which was not competitive on the Dem side so hard to accurately gauge), Sinykin got 41.8% of the vote while Biden got 46.8% in 2020. So a 5% rightward swing.

@larry_rodrigue1 A superb choice!

@dankrulwich Georgia?

@carstoni92 I don’t think that’s be an issue 18 months from now but also - there are plenty of members who are very likely to lose in a presidential turnout year.

@dankrulwich Anything even remotely viewed as helping the Dems would be political suicide for any Republican. They would get primaried in 18 months and never be heard from again.

@time_137 As a head-to-head certainly not. But a Lake-Masters-MainstreamRep has a very good shot, kind of the reverse of how Trump won the 2016 primary with only 25% of the vote.

@dankrulwich No normal republican can win primary in Arizona, though.

@cjmoose Indeed. 74% to 26%.

@ryannicholos Let’s hope!

@dankrulwich Pretty sure Adam would know more than you. He said there were also late cured ballots and more overseas to be counted tomorrow,

@JennyAnn @AdamForColorado @laurenboebert Currently yes.

@dankrulwich @AdamForColorado @laurenboebert Which auto triggers a recount, correct?