Dan

89 posts

Dan

Dan

@danman314

Just to follow others. Also Idle Rambling on Substack.

Katılım Mayıs 2019
507 Takip Edilen98 Takipçiler
Dan
Dan@danman314·
Kudos to @DaCaveOfWonders for initially pointing me towards this. I used @revolvingdoorDC's tracker to fill in the gaps: therevolvingdoorproject.org/trump-disaster… I've updated the github repo with all these new charts. x.com/DaCaveOfWonder…
Tiger Lava Lamp@DaCaveOfWonders

@tracewoodgrains I looked into this when it first came up. There were examples I found of denials that just weren't in the FEMA dataset, which is why Politico's chart says the source is their own analysis of news, not OpenFEMA records.

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Dan@danman314·
One other way Trump screws blue states out of disaster relief is by leaving it pending. POLITICO showed this clearly here in the first chart. He usually denies long-pending requests, so charts that only include decisioned requests if anything undersell the bias!
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Dan@danman314·
@llama_irl @tracewoodgrains @_SUPER7X Did my best to poke around on this. Unfortunately the money requested isn't availble on the FEMA API. @tracewoodgrains x.com/danman314/stat…
Dan@danman314

Some people have asked if it's the requesting states, not Trump, who's "at fault" for the denials. Unfortunately, FEMA doesn't have $ amounts for the requests on their API, but we can still slice the data in a few ways to check. TL;DR: No. Trump is what's changed, not requesters

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Jack
Jack@tracewoodgrains·
Is Trump denying disaster relief to blue states for partisan reasons? Yes, and it's not "lying with data" to say so. Some commentators have been trying to poke holes in reports showing this; Dan does a good job showing where and why that hole-poking fails.
Dan@danman314

@politicalmath idlerambling.substack.com/p/yes-trump-is… Here is the post again, to read. The reason the explicit "include_emergency=False" flag even exists is that I implemented a way to... include emergencies! And ran it! And it shows more or less the same thing!

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Dan
Dan@danman314·
Some people have asked if it's the requesting states, not Trump, who's "at fault" for the denials. Unfortunately, FEMA doesn't have $ amounts for the requests on their API, but we can still slice the data in a few ways to check. TL;DR: No. Trump is what's changed, not requesters
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Dan@danman314·
@FrankBednarz @DaCaveOfWonders @tracewoodgrains Oh this is super interesting and I missed @DaCaveOfWonders's comment until now. I did think it was notable that I never got a result as low as Politico, and state filing records that never made it to FEMA would explain it - and probably bias heavily towards denials.
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Dan@danman314·
@FrankBednarz @BlueRepublik This chart uses the “2/3rds” criteria for state party classification, which includes all states, but dilutes the effect by including swing states. It’s even more stark when you use the original “trifecta” classification to compare political allies to enemies.
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Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦@FrankBednarz·
@BlueRepublik @danman314 In my quoted tweet, I grabbed the wrong plot. This is with emergency declarations. The rate is slightly less disparate, but the much larger number of examples makes the result more robust.
Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦 tweet media
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Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦@FrankBednarz·
I had assumed that when @politicalmath went silent (and stopped replying to my comments on this site), it was because he was kinda embarrassed about the errors identified in this comment. Wouldn't fix it, but wouldn't promote it knowing the errors. Nope! @idlerambling/note/c-236989271?r=64gq7" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@idlerambling/…
Dan@danman314

@politicalmath I was frankly stunned to see @politicalmath claiming that I "went silent" - I had the most recent post and comment on Substack, where I painstakingly went through his concerns and published detailed methodological updates and a dataset that met his precise criteria.

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Dan@danman314·
@FrankBednarz @BlueRepublik Right, I don’t think I’ve clearly said this anywhere, but the “they’ve excluded data” and the “this is all hinging on a small number of datapoints” critiques are self-refuting. Synthesizing them makes Politico’s case stronger, not weaker.
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Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦@FrankBednarz·
@BlueRepublik @danman314 The data actually show a stronger case than Politico made. If you consider Emergency Declarations (generally worth less than $5 million) it shows a similar disparity to Disaster Declarations (>$5 million) with enough data you can't dismiss it as a fluke. x.com/i/status/20552…
Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦@FrankBednarz

@politicalmath @BlueRepublik 3. You accuse Politico of p-hacking by looking at only Major Disaster requests (again, statutory term of art), but when you expand the analysis emergency declarations, the same disparity jumps out at you. (Credit: Idle Rambling.)

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Jack
Jack@tracewoodgrains·
Does the accuracy of the data mean, as the attempted debunking said, that Trump is a "vindictive, cartoonishly evil president who is making the victims of disasters suffer because they live in the wrong state"? Those are his words; others can judge. But the numbers hold up.
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Dan@danman314·
@politicalmath You’re still using the updateTime field to code for accept date, this is outright wrong. You can literally google this event to find dozens of articles showing you’re wrong. google.com/search?q=biden…
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PoIiMath
PoIiMath@politicalmath·
Here's the crazy part: The argument we're having hinges (in part) on 2 data points. The Palisades fire started January 7 (during Biden's term). The FEMA relief was approved February 18th (during Trump's term). The anti-Trump team isn't counting that as a Trump approved disaster.
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PoIiMath@politicalmath·
I don't want to harp too much on the FEMA story, but I've been going back and forth with a cool guy who says wrong on the data. Here's his piece. I basically said "are we looking at the same data" and the answer was "no" idlerambling.substack.com/p/yes-trump-is…
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Dan@danman314·
@politicalmath @BlueRepublik Your spreadsheet has no info on which FEMA dataset was used, how you decorated it with party, or many other important methodological questions. I get that coding isn't your native tongue, but saying I'm less transparent because I gave you the literal source code is bizarre.
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Dan@danman314·
@politicalmath @BlueRepublik This is a lie. The results of the code have been on github since the first post, and directly after your asking for the raw data I modified the code to give a full dataset of every raw and derived value relevant to the charts produced. github.com/danstoyell/tru…
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🔰Chief Georgist Shill 🔰
🔰Chief Georgist Shill 🔰@BlueRepublik·
I’m curious how any right winger actually engages this Clear direct evidence that their worldview is wrong, and liberals are more magnanimous to their political opponents than conservatives are in this situation I suppose you just run and hide back in your echo chamber
Rowan Fornow 🚵🚉🏙️🦣🇵🇸@rowanfornow

This is a perfect comparison because we don't actually have to speculate. Conservatives go out of their way to specifically avoid saving liberals from fires. And floods. And hurricanes.

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PoIiMath
PoIiMath@politicalmath·
@BlueRepublik Wrong again. I looked at all data, which includes fire, winter storm, tropical storm, tornado, severe storm, severe ice storm, hurricane, flood, earthquake, and coastal storm. I understand if you think that data is "noise" when it doesn't match your desired outcome
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Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦
Frank Bednarz 🇺🇸🇺🇦@FrankBednarz·
@politicalmath @BlueRepublik I looked at your data. There are significant problems; you ignore them. 1. You fault Politico for not counting non-disaster requests in their tally of... disaster requests, which is a statutory term of art. You accuse them of p-hacking based on this!
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Dan@danman314·
@politicalmath @BlueRepublik The "include_emergency" flag exists so it can sometimes be True! As I make extremely, unambiguously clear in my post. I broke down the bias by every possible combination of disaster inclusion + state inclusion. Why are you misrepresenting this so blatantly?
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PoIiMath
PoIiMath@politicalmath·
@BlueRepublik His code explicitly excludes "emergency" declarations all_recs = fetch_all_fema_web(include_emergency=False) He also excludes the FEMA approval for the Palisades fire (which was approved under Trump) because the disaster happened in the last few weeks of Biden's presidency
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Dan@danman314·
@politicalmath @BlueRepublik I gave you a csv with the entire FEMA dataset and all derived values from my code. Really glad to see @BlueRepublik already pointed this out. Did you just miss it? Why lie about this? x.com/danman314/stat…
Dan@danman314

I'm "Idle Ramblings" on Substack. @politicalmath, it would be nice if you would just admit you're incorrect here? I absolutely did not just say "run the code", I gave you a csv with every conceivable piece of metadata that my code ever touched. github.com/danstoyell/tru…

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PoIiMath
PoIiMath@politicalmath·
@BlueRepublik I asked repeatedly "what are your raw numbers?" b/c that will let us see the raw results and agree on percentages. All I got back was "run the code, run the code, run the code".
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Dan@danman314·
@politicalmath In the second, I break the entire state-level dataset out into a scatterplot of Trump vote share vs FEMA approval rate. Please just look at this and ask yourself if you feel there's a correlation (r=.65 with p<.001, but I think it jumps out visually anyway).
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Dan
Dan@danman314·
First, I combine the "major disasters only" and "excluding states" critique. Every single combination sitll shows that Trump is screwing blue states on disaster relief. @politicalmath continues to repeat these gripes implying that they change the punchline, when they don't.
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Dan
Dan@danman314·
Two charts that I think show clearly why @politicalmath is wrong, and Trump is in fact screwing blue states. They're big charts, but it's worth it if you've been reading through this debate, I promise.
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Keşfet

@DaCaveOfWonders @revolvingdoorDC @llama_irl @tracewoodgrains @_SUPER7X @FrankBednarz @BlueRepublik @politicalmath