DFZ

@patientinvestor We sold Google and bought Microsoft. Interesting. I have enormous respect for Chris.

🚨Aktien Earnings des Tages🚨 TTT Highlights 👉 $BN 👉 $NU 👉 $AMAT Welche Aktien befinden sich auf eurer heutigen Watchlist am Vatertag #finx?😀 Da hatte ich gestern die falschen Daten und keiner hat etwas gesagt.😉 #Börse #Aktien #Finanzen

So, we (kinda silently) launched @lemonade_inc Car in Indiana yesterday. This launch marks a major milestone in Lemonade Car's history- Yesterday, Lemonade Car got a shiny new heart! I've spoken briefly about our L2 tech stack before, but the centerpiece of it all is LoCo, our LLM-first, no-code insurance application builder. With LoCo, our team can rapidly build new products, launch states, iterate on pricing and underwriting, and experiment with various dynamic experiences - all in hours instead of weeks, and without touching any code. I believe the best projects are those that can stream business value as they're being developed, and that's exactly how we're approaching LoCo. While LoCo is being built, we're already incorporating it into our products, and it's already delivering huge value in Lemonade Pet, and now - Car. Yesterday, Lemonade Car launched with two new LoCo components: LoCo Core Defines and manages coverages, limits, UW criteria, segmentation, QA and validation without a single line of code! LoCo Rater A new rating engine, powered by our own Domain Specific Language (DSL), simplifies complex rating logic, improves performance by several orders of magnitude (built on Rust), and comes with advanced validation capabilities. LoCo Rater works hand in hand with our UBI stack, used to analyze driving behavior and help generate risk-based pricing, using our own proprietary data science models.

Thoughts on $LMND post Q1 2026 ER from a personal investment perspective. I've been following the Lemonade story since way before the IPO, having come across Daniel Schrieber and the original peer to peer business model in circa 2016. Luckily I missed out on the stock price action post IPO and through 2021, but got very interested in the stock in early 2022 when stock had fallen from peak 183 to around $18, and had a good hard look at whether the company could achieve it's claims. Watched many a @PaperBagInvest video before we ever crossed paths online or invested, he is the OG in the stock. The company suffered through a period of technical challenges in 2022 - 2024, mostly to do with macro inflation increasing claims costs at the same time as the mechanics (and regulatory rate filing limitations) would not allow Lemonade to match risk with rate - i.e. because inflation took off so dramatically in the 2022 period, writing business was simply not profitable. The management team took the very sensible and well signposted approach of taking their foot off the gas until inflation calmed down and regulatory approvals allowed rates to catch up to the cost of future claims. The earnings reports in this period were terrible, with a double whammy of poor topline growth alongside dismal bottom line results and large EBITDA losses. Understandably the stock struggled in the $12 - $18 range. I first invested in early 2022 but sold out a few times, luckily at some local peaks and traded pairs with Tesla in 2022 - 2023/24 which worked well. Then from around Sept 2023 I began to seriously ask the question: what would it look like in 20 years if I just committed to holding this stock from a $1bn market capitalization? What happens if the company does get through the rate change quagmire, and get back to a 30% long term growth rate? What if the claimed tech does result in collapsing loss adjusting expenses? What if there is truth to the claim that AI can literally run the company with limited human oversight? The conclusion I came to was that IF Lemonade could achieve the things laid out so eloquently in the earnings reports, albeit having to see past the near term market and mechanical challenges, the company had a clear path to a $100bn and greater market cap. So logically, all one had to do was hold one's nose and get past inflation/rate/capital adequacy concerns, and hold the stock. My background as a general insurance actuary massively helped here, as I could understand clearly the mechanics of why near term challenges would go away in time, and why Lemonade could have a clear 10% or more loss ratio advantage over the competition once they hit scale. That's a huge differential in a market where many insurers struggle to maintain a 90% combined ratio. Pricing elasticity means a slightly lower price than competitors translates into massive market share gains. Fast forward to early 2024 and the story hit a new trajectory of accelerating growth, increasing gross profit. The stock rapidly re-rated to $50 around the Nov 2024 investor day as investors finally got it. The stock hit a peak of ~$100 in Jan 2026 and has since halved to around $54, leading to frustration among newer investors and people looking for a quick buck. My own perspective is twofold: firstly, if you had invested $100,000 on 10th May 2024 at $16.58 you would now have $329,000 on 8th May 2026, a compound return of 81%. Not too shabby, notwithstanding the recent fall from $100. Secondly, if the thesis still holds, and Lemonade has an understandable, relatively low risk path to $100bn market cap, then all we have to do is hold and the returns will be astronomical from the current $4.2bn market cap. Investors like me with a cost basis around $17 for the bulk of shares held have had a 4x return so far, and I'm in it for the eventual 100x. Everything I read in the last four earnings reports put the trajectory squarely on the original thesis. Almost all of the data points we predicted and were looking for in the thesis that long term bulls agreed upon in late 2023 are in place and being hit consistently. The two areas of concern introduced in Q1 26 ER are: Stock based comp being higher than before (to me this is a non-relevant issue - if the stock goes up, happy for Daniel, Shai etc to create and capture value) The underlying operating expenses minus marketing increasing from around $85m per quarter in 2022 - 2024 to $110m in most recent ER. I give two thoughts to this: firstly, I think from Shai's comments on Q4 earnings call that the team are behind the scenes building infrastructure for future products that we don't know about (same as in 2022 a big amount of opex $ was to build the car product) - and secondly, a decent chunk of it is related to interest payable on the general catalyst programme. Just as Lemonade was using 75% then 55% and now 20% quota share, and the reduction increases revenue and retained profit, so they will in due course close the general catalyst programme and retain the 16% IRR for the company profit account. Capital constraints mean that is some way off, but eventually it will go away and the OPEX line will come down. Overall in my opinion the underlying Lemonade bull thesis is fully intact, and without going overboard on detail I believe the data points in last 3 earnings reports overwhelmingly give evidence that we are exactly on the trajectory we want to be on. The path to $100bn or greater market cap is clear to see if you have a long enough timeframe and patience. A better question than looking at the current stock price is, what kind of investor am I? Am I willing to park a good chunk of capital for 20 years to get an eventual 100x pay off? I asked myself those questions over the past 3 years and am fully committed to seeing the course. I will of course sell some along the way (around $180-$200) but the bulk of my investment is in it for the 20 year win. Hope to see some long term bulls be patient and chill as the story plays out. Not investment advice or influence, my risk tolerance is very high compared to an average investor and I have been relaxed about a large reduction in net worth over past six months. Many investors would sell at the bottom and lose, so if that's you then do diversify and use adequate risk management. Do not buy Lemonade stock if you get nervous about volatility. Good luck!