Das Qwas

$NBIS Israel exposure — site by site, with the capacity math nobody's doing: targets 800 MW – 1 GW active by end of 2026. Currently at 170 MW. That means they need to add 630-830 MW this year. Here's the Israel problem: 🇮🇱 Modi'in — 8 MW Status: LIVE ✅ GPUs: 4,000 NVIDIA B200 Risk: Grid dependent, zero backup. Hosts Israel's national AI supercomputer 🇮🇱 Beit Shemesh — 58 MW Original: Q3 2026 – Q1 2027 Delayed estimate: Q1 – Q3 2027 (6-12 months) Needs an 830 MW gas plant that's NOT APPROVED Mega Or building at $880M — cost overruns likely This was their largest single non-US addition for 2026 🇮🇱 Masmiyya — 22 MW Original: Q3 2026 Delayed estimate: Q1 – Q3 2027 (6-12 months) Southern Israel = highest threat vector 240 MW substation planned nearby — not built yet The impact: 80 MW delayed = 10-13% of planned 2026 additions pushed into 2027 But it's worse than the % suggests: → These were EARLY 2026 deliveries, not late → Missouri (800 MW) and France (240 MW) are H2'26 at earliest → Israel was supposed to fill the gap between Finland scaling and US coming online → Every month of delay = lost revenue months that compound against the $7-9B ARR target Back-of-envelope: 80 MW × 12 months × ~$2.5-3M/MW/year = $200-240M in revenue pushed to 2027 $NBIS guides $3.0-3.4B in 2026 revenue That's 6-8% of the full year target at risk from Israel alone They lease everything to the left from third parties — Mega Or in Israel, Equinix in Paris, Ark Data Centres in London, QTS/landlords in the US. When Mega Or’s construction slips, when the IEC grid can’t deliver, when the substation isn’t built — Nebius has zero control. They’re a tenant waiting on a landlord. IREN owns the left side. Childress, Texas — they own the land, own the 750 MW grid connection, built the substations, have PPAs at $0.033/kWh directly with ERCOT. Sweetwater — same thing, 2 GW campus, they own the dirt and the power. Oklahoma — 1,600 MW, owned site. When Microsoft needs capacity, IREN doesn’t call a landlord. They energize their own substation. 🤖