@TonerousHyus Rs were clearly gonna win this race when the Atlanta metro started reporting
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SoCal Data
1.4K posts
SoCal Data
@data_socal
Chief Pollster, SoCal Strategies; AAPOR Member. Business inquiries: [email protected]
Katılım Ekim 2024
218 Takip Edilen574 Takipçiler
@RepMAGAKING @SocalStrategies It’s a congressional primary with a 5% sampling error. It’s a damn good poll objectively
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@SocalStrategies With all due respect 54.9 and 45.1 isn’t that close
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SoCal Data retweetledi
ICYMI: Our first primary poll was spot on in Kentucky, well inside margin of error despite CD primaries being very difficult to get right. We'd love to continue this, but we need your help!
SoCal Strategies@SocalStrategies
Hi everyone, we’re thrilled to be back. We paid for this survey out of pocket, but won’t be able to do so for the rest of the cycle. We kindly ask for your support to help us continue publishing accurate polling this year. Thanks, The team at SoCal gofund.me/0dd5f30e1
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@Settings911 @RNolan96194 @KJVPopulist There’s no way to “accidentally” buy something on kalshi, you’d have to click through way too many things. Idk why he’d admit to this
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@RNolan96194 @KJVPopulist Yea he “accidentally” bought Gallrein +5-10% on Kalshi, and then sold it. He admitted it on stream. I reposted the vid if you wanna go back and look for it. Being in the polling buisness and doing that shit is so shitty
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Biggest loser tonight isn't even Thomas massie - it's rich baris.
He threw away EVERY bit of respect, integrity, and weight big data poll had in order to release cope polls that were obviously faking numbers to get better going into the primary
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SoCal Data retweetledi
Bethel's lead has grown with 77% of the vote in to 113K.
Basically the Fulton drop coming in about 30 minutes or so should confirm that he wins, as long as Rankin doesn't overperform (which has not happened in the Atlanta area yet).
CA ET Nerd@earlyvotedata
Bethel with a 100K lead now, slimmed down a little. 70% of the vote in, the question will be can he keep that lead?
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@ZacharyDonnini Most normal counting process in Fulton county lmafo
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Fulton County, GA may begin reporting votes as soon as 11 p.m. ET after a manhunt forced one polling location to close during the day and remain open until 11.
Democratic Supreme Court candidate Miracle Rankin is from Fulton and likely needs a strong drop there.
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@BananaRep405 @earlyvotedata 64k in Cobb, 24k in Cherokee, 19k in Forsyth
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@earlyvotedata Where are the rest of the votes outside Fulton?
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@earlyvotedata This is pretty much over imo. Bethel is doing very well in the Atlanta metro, I'd expect that trend to continue in Fulton. If NYT is right and there are 220k voters there that break for Rankin by 40%, Bethel still leads.
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Bethel with a 100K lead now, slimmed down a little.
70% of the vote in, the question will be can he keep that lead?
CA ET Nerd@earlyvotedata
An big update: with 64% in Bethel now has a 9.5% lead. That's going to help a lot with the Fulton county drop coming. About a 120K total vote lead.
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Results aren’t final, but it seems the poll will be almost dead on. Thrilled to provide accurate data once again!
SoCal Strategies@SocalStrategies
New SoCal Strategies KY CD4 Republican Primary Poll Ed Gallrein: 49% Thomas Massie: 42% Undecided: 9% n=450 LV 5/15-16 @socaldata/note/p-198064733?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=4aupgp" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@socaldata/not…
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One thing to watch for, that I believe is under-covered in this KY-04 primary between Rep. Thomas Massie and Ed Gallrein, is who gets the most votes.
That’ll be a huge factor in who wins that race.
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@restoreorderusa @RedEaglePatriot Weighting. Because weights aren’t full numbers, the final result for the Gallrein supporter probably had a value of 1.14
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Massie is up with voters who are
Young
Not enthusiastic
Moderate and liberal
Just doesn’t seems like a winning formula in a primary IMO
InteractivePolls@IAPolls2022
KY-04 GOP PRIMARY (with leans) 🟥 Thomas Massie: 50.2% (-2.2) 🟥 Ed Gallrein: 49.8% (+2.2) —— Enthusiasm • Extreme: Gallrein +4 • Very: Gallrein +13 • Moderately: Massie +16 • Not at all enthusiastic: Massie +50 --- • Conservative: Gallrein +20 • Liberal: Massie +37 • Moderate: Massie +40 --- • Gen Z: Massie +63 • Millennials: Massie +43 • Gen X: Gallrein +8 • Silent/Boomer: Gallrein +24 --- • White: Gallrein +1 • Black: Massie +22 • Hispanic: Gallrein +10 • Asian: Massie +10 --- • Income 30-50K: Gallrein +36 • Income 200K+: Massie +33 --- • No College: Gallrein +19 • College: Massie +23 --- • No religion: Massie +48 • Evangelicals: Gallrein +21 • Another religion: Massie +38 • Protestant: Gallrein+8 • Catholic: Massie +2 • Jewish (n=7): Massie +10 • Muslim (n=2): Gallrein +14 --- • Men: Massie +9 • Women: Gallrein +10 --- • Boone: Gallrein +7 • Campbell: Masie +5 • Kenton: Massie +13 • Rest of District/Rurals: Gallrein +4 —— • @BIGDATAPOLL | 5/17 | 500 LV • (+/- change vs May 1) | ±4% bigdatapoll.com/project/kentuc…
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@TheDataGooroo REP has sponsored our polls in the past, but this one was internally funded. He had no involvement in this survey.
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btw, for your information, the pollster SoCal strategies is directly linked to @RedEaglePatriot
the same guy calling all Massie supporters a "group of cultists"
so it should be no surprise that that poll has Ed up "comfortably"
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Didn't release in full crosstabs because of small #, but here are the results of our poll by county
Boone: Gallrein+17
Kenton: Gallrein+6
Oldham: Massie+4
Campbell: Massie+18
Shelby: Gallrein+19
Rest of District: Gallrein+13
Could be a decent baseline to have on election night
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@mattforney Obviously I’ve polled this race, so I’m a bit biased, but Gallrein at 53-55 after 2 polls showed him up 7 seems to be very good value.
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Nearly 24 hours since the last poll dropped and Midwit Powerball still has Massie collapsing.
I'm guessing the lolberts can't manipulate the market anymore because they've maxed out their moms' credit cards.
Matt Forney@mattforney
Midwit Powerball is going nuts. Lolberts gonna have to dig through their couch cushions to manipulate this.
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@AF_Insight And if there are no polls, there’s really nothing for the betting markets to go off of.
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Polling died and was replaced with prediction markets.
Even then, the ROI for House polling is pretty much nil. Unless a candidate sponsors it themselves.
The 2024 NY-16 Dem Primary was about $25M and only got 3 public polls.
There should be more polling, but people are much more interested (and trusting) of the gambling markets.
SoCal Data@data_socal
Yeah this is correct. This has been the most discussed race of the year, there shouldn’t only be 4 public polls.
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