David Byler

19.3K posts

David Byler

David Byler

@databyler

VP at NRG | Public opinion researcher | Former @washingtonpost political data journalist | Dad, people person, math person!

Katılım Eylül 2014
814 Takip Edilen16.7K Takipçiler
David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
Also, post-AAPOR thoughts: - People REALLY like using AI to code open-ends - Using AI like normal data science makes a ton of sense (probe weaknesses, be smart, etc.) - AI hasn't fundamentally changed the polling workflow (it prob will though!) - There are huge practical and philosophical issues with synthetic respondents - Some problems, i.e. weirdos disproportionately filling out surveys, prob can't be solved by throwing a bunch of AI at it
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Ben Welsh
Ben Welsh@palewire·
By popular demand, I've pushed a round of improvements to fivethirtyeightindex.com - Tons of deduplications and byline cleanups - 100s of NYT era articles - 600+ podcast URLs - Pub date corrections from the woolly Blogspot days Let me know what more to fix.
Ben Welsh@palewire

Only ABC can fix this, but in the spirit of helping out I created fivethirtyeightindex.com, which lists every page preserved by the @internetarchive. I hope it's helpful to someone

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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
@LoganDobson I think that's one of the best pro-AI messages. We did some message testing on AI/environment stuff last year, and "AI will make stuff cheaper and cleaner" did better than "you are wrong about water, you dummy" obviously not the messages we tested haha but you get the idea
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Logan Dobson
Logan Dobson@LoganDobson·
@databyler wonder why they wouldn't ask the inverse -- what if it decreased your energy bill!
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
More AI polling where there is, at the very least, tension
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
This is the Echelon poll and the NBC poll that made the rounds Like in all things polling -- these are both great groups, both can capture true things, etc. It's just one of those interesting things
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
These results are a little different. And I'm wondering why! I have my theories, but I want to know what other people think
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
This was really fun, as always! Be sure to listen! gdpolitics.com/p/ai-has-enter… And if you want exclusive poll results, on AI, in your inbox from me: @nrgainewsletter" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@nrgainewslett
Galen Druke@galendruke

NEW POD: AI has officially entered mainstream politics From Maine's first-ever statewide moratorium on large data centers passed this week, to the Anthropic/DOD spat in February, AI is beginning to disrupt politics. @databyler and I talked about it!

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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
And I do have to give credit -- on one of those questions, I was tweaking something Tavern did earlier because it was just a great question
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
There's lots of other reasons, but that ^ is one of my working theories on the cost/benefit tradeoff at work for people Also makes sense of people enjoying using the thing, seeing positive personal impact but being really worried about societal impact
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
I have a new thing on the Orange Newsletter App! It's called "Real Research on Artificial Intelligence" It's an NRG channel where I share, weekly, our original survey research on AI Latest post: a lot of normal people think AI is a fancy search engine. And if you weigh "the destruction of your job, many humanity" against "great search" you can see why some people might be uneasy
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
Guys I am trying to come up with an inconspicuous but fake AI company name. For a red herring question And every name is taken. If there is a name, there is an AI company with that name
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
TBH am an optimist! Just trying to not be one of those guys who makes Claude his whole personality
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
So I did a whole Claude Code thing. At least 3-5x faster than me doing it myself. It also crashed three times and got some basic directions wrong So I got both sides of the equation in like the span of half an hour
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
there are not two parties here, you don't have to be polarized
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
can we all just believe 1) The fact that the computer writes code is a huge deal 2) It might not yet be god
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David Byler
David Byler@databyler·
I don't know that it's the two of them! I've got a theory (that I need to write up sometime) that primaries come in three varieties: 1) single-candidate coronation (Trump 2024) 2) two-candidate slog (Obama vs Clinton) 3) multi-candidate chaos (truly anything can happen -- Rs almost nominating Santorum in 2012, Biden looking fragile then surging in 2020, etc.) You can evolve from 3) into 2) or 1) and from 2) to 1). And where the polling sits gives you a big clue of where we are. And for Dems in 2028 we are so firmly in 3)
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Varad Mehta
Varad Mehta@varadmehta·
@databyler I don't see Gavin Newsom as doing that. If it's the two of them, he'd have a hard time getting black voters, IMO.
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