Dave Frees
5.4K posts

Dave Frees
@davefrees
Be More Influential -Ideas & Information to Transform Your Business & Life - Dave is a Grand Master of the skills of #influence Steve Forbes


Here's my conversation all about AI in 2026, including technical breakthroughs, scaling laws, closed & open LLMs, programming & dev tooling (Claude Code, Cursor, etc), China vs US competition, training pipeline details (pre-, mid-, post-training), rapid evolution of LLMs, work culture, diffusion, robotics, tool use, compute (GPUs, TPUs, clusters), continual learning, long context, AGI timelines (including how stuff might go wrong), advice for beginners, education, a LOT of discussion about the future, and other topics. It's a great honor and pleasure for me to be able to do this kind of episode with two of my favorite people in the AI community: 1. Sebastian Raschka (@rasbt) 2. Nathan Lambert (@natolambert) They are both widely-respected machine learning researchers & engineers who also happen to be great communicators, educators, writers, and X posters. This was a whirlwind conversation: everything from the super-technical to the super-fun. It's here on X in full and is up everywhere else (see comment). Timestamps: 0:00 - Introduction 1:57 - China vs US: Who wins the AI race? 10:38 - ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning? 21:38 - Best AI for coding 28:29 - Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs 40:08 - Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019 48:05 - AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding? 1:04:12 - How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training 1:37:18 - Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs 1:58:11 - Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research 2:21:03 - Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks) 2:24:49 - Silicon Valley bubble 2:28:46 - Text diffusion models and other new research directions 2:34:28 - Tool use 2:38:44 - Continual learning 2:44:06 - Long context 2:50:21 - Robotics 2:59:31 - Timeline to AGI 3:06:47 - Will AI replace programmers? 3:25:18 - Is the dream of AGI dying? 3:32:07 - How AI will make money? 3:36:29 - Big acquisitions in 2026 3:41:01 - Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta 3:53:35 - Manhattan Project for AI 4:00:10 - Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters 4:08:15 - Future of human civilization




There’s only one @akirathedon



How to Get Rich (without getting lucky):

THE TRILLION METAL POTATOES HIDING UNDER THE OCEAN More than 3 miles down in pitch-black freezing water sit apple-sized rocks packed with cobalt, nickel and manganese worth trillions. They’re key for EV batteries but live in a no-man’s-land ocean zone nobody owns. Now countries and companies are racing to grab them without wrecking an ecosystem we barely understand. Source: johnny .harris

This week we're sharing "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice" a classic paper published by Tversky and Kahneman in 1981. In this paper the authors show that wording alone can flip people’s choices on identical pay‑offs, proving we are far less logical than economics once believed. You should give the short paper a read - it might change how you phrase your next decision.








How to Get Rich (without getting lucky):

The thing about Elon’s alleged political power is that it mainly flows from just saying things out loud that are obviously true.

🚨MUST WATCH: MR. BEAN'S DEFINITIVE DEFENSE OF FREE SPEECH (FULL VIDEO) Rowan Atkinson: "The clear problem with the outlawing of insult - is that too many things can be interpreted as such." Source: @avavidan

