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Crypto Through a Macro Lens 👁️
After 18 years on macro trading desks, I look at Crypto through a macro lens
What are some of the macro indicators I look at every day as part of that framework and why?
A thread 👇
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David Brickell
6K posts
David Brickell
@davidbrickell80
18 yrs on institutional trading desks. Now focused on crypto through a macro lens. If you’re not in crypto, you’re not macro. @FRNT_Financial @LDNCryptoClub
United Kingdom Katılım Mart 2016
2.4K Takip Edilen5.8K Takipçiler
@bobthewizard23 I was about 30 points away from stopping out 😅
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Thanks for your good luck messages once more, worked out well again 😂
David Brickell@davidbrickell80
Ok, gone long some S&P futures on this Wish me luck…again…worked out well last time 👍
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Man City remembering they’re Man City and Arsenal remembering they’re Arsenal 😂
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Ok, gone long some S&P futures on this
Wish me luck…again…worked out well last time 👍
LondonCryptoClub@LDNCryptoClub
Great post looking at the events of yesterday, market reaction and why we’re likely nearing an end to this war 👇
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Great to be joined this week by @Matt_Hougan on the @DeribitOfficial Crypto Options Unplugged pod
Matt has such a clear and articulate view of this space and is at the forefront of driving the institutional wave of adoption
This is a great episode to drown out the noise, switch off the charts and see the bigger picture of what is going on
This won’t leave you feeling bearish, it will leave you feeling early!
Check it out 👇
Deribit@DeribitOfficial
New episode: @Matt_Hougan (@Bitwise CIO) on why $1M Bitcoin is a math problem, not a bet - plus the Clarity Act, Digital Asset Treasuries, AI agents, and more. 🎧 youtu.be/xxgSRWhLsmU
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The “narrative spark” for Bitcoin playing out real time 👇
LondonCryptoClub@LDNCryptoClub
Interesting dynamic, watching US treasuries sell off, with 10yr yield back testing 4.20% It’s putting the squeeze on equities but BTC pumping This is “left tail” hedge scenario as markets start to question US debt sustainability Of course, Bessent and Co won’t allow the bond market to collapse, so it will lead to moooar liquidity and financial repression which will feed back into equities For now though, Bitcoin is reconnecting with its ultimate safe haven characteristics as a non sovereign, borderless asset
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Great to catch up with the @MilkRoadMacro guys to discuss all things macro and why I think Bitcoin can win in either a prolonged war scenario or a swift end 💪
We also dive deeper into the Bitcoin sell off over the past few months, how the tech/AI rotation is impacting and look at what the liquidity drivers have been and how that plays out over the coming months
Check it out 👇
Milk Road Macro@MilkRoadMacro
“Heads I Win, Tails You Lose”: Why Bitcoin Wins No Matter What Happens Next w/ @davidbrickell80 Most people think war is bearish for markets. But historically it does the opposite. War → more government spending → more debt → more money printing → higher asset prices. This is why some macro investors think Bitcoin wins either way. Tune in to know more ⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱ 00:00 - Intro 01:30 - US–Iran Conflict Reaction 03:24 - Oil Spike or Overreaction? 05:38 - US Energy Supply Offset 06:47 - War = More Liquidity? 07:26 - Russia–Ukraine Parallel 08:14 - How Wars Get Funded 09:09 - Lessons From 2008 09:41 - The Central Bank Safety Net 10:43 - What Triggers the Fed Printer? 13:11 - $BTC: “Heads I Win, Tails You Lose” 16:20 - Bitcoin the High-Beta Hedge 19:41 - Sponsor: Summ 20:32 - Sponsor: Midnight 20:51 - The AI Market Paradox 24:02 - Bitcoin: The Longest Duration Asset 26:57 - Where Will Liquidity Come From? 28:10 - The Rotation Trade 29:54 - SLR Rules & Bank Liquidity 31:00 - Why the Public Still Hates Crypto 34:02 - Sovereign Wealth in the Digital Age 37:43 - David’s Portfolio Strategy 41:14 - Wrap-Up
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Feeling pretty smug that I filled the car up with petrol this weekend 😀
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David Brickell retweetledi
If they could print oil right now they would
But they will absolutely print the fiat…especially if the bond market comes under extreme pressure
To that end, as per the last Connecting the Dots, Bitcoin feels like the “heads I win, tails you lose” trade
Prolonged war and we see the bond market under serious threat which fires up the money printers and financial repression tools
Swift end to the war and all things risk melt up
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Thanks for all the good luck messages yesterday 😂
David Brickell@davidbrickell80
Gonna buy some S&P futures Wish me luck 😬
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Rolling isn’t just about time.
Typically, I don't really like going into the last week on a directional option position.
Once the delta goes above 80 on an option, it's not starting to feel like an option anymore. It's starting to feel like delta one.
You’ve got to decide in real time.
Do I want something in the book that behaves like an option, or am I alright with it behaving just like stock or futures?
If a put has gone to 80 delta and I don't want a short futures, then I need to roll it to something with maybe a 30 delta so it still has convexity and doesn’t just have a stable negative delta profile.
When you get into the last week or two and you’re anywhere near strike, that decay starts to hurt.
If I don’t have a good reason for maximum gamma and convexity in that expiry, I should be rolling it to take that decay back down and have something that decays more orderly while still giving me protection.
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David Brickell retweetledi
This is something we’ve written about
Whilst Bitcoin and crypto have traded almost tick for tick with software stocks and the AI FUD recently, getting caught up in “tech” risk buckets, crypto is a natural compliment to an agentic AI world
The rotation out of tech on AI fears has been a “shoot first, ask questions later” move but as capital looks to get re-deployed, crypto will be more rationally seen as a winner in an exponential AI world and capital will be allocated accordingly
Discussed this too on the @MilkRoadMacro podcast yesterday 👀
Pantera Capital@PanteraCapital
We’re witnessing a convergence of AI and crypto. AI agents can't walk into a bank, open an account, or transact in paper money. Crypto provides the financial rails for AI agents to exchange value online. As AI adoption grows exponentially, we believe crypto demand will follow naturally. @dan_pantera @bloomberg @crypto
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Generally like to fade war based sell offs
Rates and liquidity are all that matter and this will certainly lead to more liquidity being pumped in and more debt as they look to fund this war
Sell off in bonds won’t sustain (this is just a broad de-risking where all positions get reduced) and the Fed will ensure stability and keep yields under control
Debasement trade on steroids
Central banks removed the left tail risk broadly from markets but sometimes they need to be tested to act
They don’t need much testing during a war as they need to show strength and stability (you don’t encourage Iran by allowing US asset markets to get obliterated)
Also think longer term money will start to position for a post Iran works and a “peace dividend”
So thinking short term specs sell the hole, then all get squeezed out
This just me punting btw. I’m not the best day trader by a long stretch and rarely get involved trying to chop myself up 😂
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David Brickell retweetledi
Markets opening broadly as expected
US S&P futures down circa 1.7%, oil up 9%, gold up 3.5%, broad dollar DXY up 1%
US bond futures relatively muted. Caught between safe haven and the implications for debt dynamics
Bitcoin range bound, likely also caught between the risk-off but also anticipating the brrrrr of the war funding money printer
Ultimately the brrrr of money printer dominates all assets and so you look for dips to buy all things risk
Want to see oil settle down first though (no need to be a hero just yet as things settle)
The world and their dog abandoned all Bitcoin narratives after a very typical BTC correction driven first by tightening US liquidity and then by the AI FUD tech rotation
Yet its fundamental qualities haven’t changed and it still captures both the far left and far right tail of the risk distribution (neither ends of which markets have visited in recent months)
A more prolonged war and Bitcoin captures the left tail risk and sniffs the consequent money printer
If Trump’s gamble pays off and we get a swift conclusion, then there’s a huge “peace premium” and Bitcoin trades with the right tail of all things risk pumping 🙌
This might finally be the narrative catalyst Bitcoin has been waiting for to bring it back from the dead…again
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@LDNCryptoClub In Belgium we do the dishes with Heineken. It's a free world but I recommend to upgrade to real beer!
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I hope people aren’t panic buying Heineken, I drank all that last week 🫣
zerohedge@zerohedge
In Dubai, some delivery services have been suspended as people flood supermarkets to buy water and other food essentials. Stockpiling prompted UAE authorities to issue a statement to reassure residents and the millions of expatriates that there is ample supply: BBG live blog
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