David Earn

COVID-19 mask-induced variolation blog post royalsociety.org/blog/2022/06/f… @McMasterU @McMasterScience @McMasterIIDR #COVID19 #variolation #mask

Congratulations to my former advisor, Bryan Grenfell, Kyoto Prize Laureate, on this tremendous honor. kyotoprize.org/en/laureates/b…

our new ontario COVID-19 forecasts are out. the main take-home: ⚠️even without omicron, we could be headed for trouble⚠️ more here: mac-theobio.github.io/forecasts/outp… (cc: @bolkerb, @jd_mathbio @DavidJDEarn)

Data scientists interested in epidemiology/stats/data management, check out this 15 month position (full disclosure: working with my spouse) at McMaster: mac-theobio.github.io/data-science.h…

BC Public Heath should require vaccination to ski on Whistler-Blackcomb. vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/… #COVID19 #vaccination #vaccine #Whistler

“Going viral” isn’t just a phrase--hit songs spread a lot like an infectious disease, according to a new study by Matthew Woolhouse (Music), @davidjdearn, @bolkerb and math grad student Dora Rosati (Math). I love seeing art and science collaborating! bit.ly/3lNlgZM

This editorial by @zeynep in @nytimes lays out why understanding aerosol is so key to pandemic control, why updates have been so late and quiet, and why it's important to educate people about the implications of aerosol transmission. Essential reading. nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opi…

My first gif! (this is the second gif from our report, not the one @irenapapst posted).

In late January, things look good on the surface. But the evidence was already strong that the orange line was going to be the story.

our modelling group managed to predict #ontario’s current #COVID wave two months ago, when daily infection reports were still declining. the 🔑? looking beyond infection reports & toward emerging evidence of b.1.1.7 spread in the province. more here: mac-theobio.github.io/forecasts/outp…

Another reminder that we need to worry about hospital capacity and long-term health effects even as vaccinating the oldest reduces COVID mortality.

our paper on the relationship between individual age and serious #COVID19 outcomes (with @MLiwz1 @DChampredon @bolkerb @jd_mathbio @DavidJDEarn) has finally been published! 🎉 open access article & source code here: doi.org/10.1186/s12889…

1/4 The #PHAC-@McMasterU longer-range modelling forecast for March 26, 2021 continues to play out in the data we are seeing now. Current surveillance data (red dots up to April 9th) are plotting along the strong resurgence trajectory.

#MacTheobio (headed by @bolkerb, @DavidJDEarn and me) is looking for a post-doc for exciting projects in #COVIDforecasting and other practical disease-spread questions. mathjobs.org/jobs?joblist-1…

ontario, the more transmissible B.1.1.7 #coronavirus variant is no joke 🦠 don’t be fooled by dropping #COVID19 case reports: the province has mostly been under lockdown/stay-at-home orders since boxing day, & it's worked🔒 we haven’t given B.1.1.7 much of a chance… yet (🧵)

Forward-looking serial intervals correctly link epidemic growth to reproduction numbers pnas.org/content/118/2/… @bolkerb @jd_mathbio @McMasterU @McMasterScience @McMasterIIDR #MacTheobio #COVID19

Excited to share our latest article with Olga Krylova on smallpox dynamics in London, published in @plosbiology: journals.plos.org/plosbiology/ar… #plosbiologyauthor @bolkerb @jd_mathbio @McMasterU @McMasterScience @McMasterIIDR #MacTheobio #smallpox @DFisman #COVID19

"Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic". In London, plague spread *much* faster in 1665 (the Great Plague) than in 1348 (the Black Death). pnas.org/content/early/… @bolkerb @jd_mathbio @McMasterU @McMasterScience @McMasterIIDR #MacTheobio #Plague #COVID19

we know #COVID19 severity depends on age, but we mostly see the ages of those dying… what about serious, but non-fatal, outcomes like hospitalization? ICU admission? intubation? ventilator use? how old are people receiving these healthcare interventions for #COVID19?