Davie
1.4K posts

Davie retweetledi

@KemiBadenoch Lebedev - appointed against security services advice.
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Davie retweetledi

The market is less than 5% (3% for equal weight Nasdaq) from retracing the entire Trump term and put us negative since Jan 20th 2025.
We had the biggest technological revolution, inflation coming down, more peace than ever...
Then Tariffs and now War.
Unreal performance for such a rich environment in terms of potential.
USA could have been the absolute leader in 2-3 technologies at the same time with most of the world as allies and growing at mid to high single digits.
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Davie retweetledi
Davie retweetledi

My favourite moment from yesterday.
@NECircuitleader giving the Minister a reality check on Labour’s nonsensical plans to limit jury trials to address the backlog.
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Davie retweetledi

I placed $1.5 billion in futures at 6:50 AM.
Fourteen minutes before President Trump's Truth Social post. That's generous. Usually, I get five.
The S&P was barely breathing. Premarket Monday. The kind of quiet where a single order echoes through the entire book. I bought $1.5 billion in futures. The index moved 0.3% on my entry alone.
That's how thin the market was.
That's how empty the room was.
At the same time, I shorted $192 million in crude oil.
Then I sat there. Three screens. One coffee. The futures blinking green on the left, the oil contract bleeding red on the right, and in the center, a Truth Social feed set to refresh every four seconds. Fourteen minutes is a long time when you know what's coming.
Not because I was nervous.
Because I was early.
At 7:04 AM, the president posted. Productive discussions. Five-day halt on strikes. Peace talks with Iran.
S&P jumped 2.5%. Oil cratered 6%. My position gained $60 million before most Americans' alarm clocks went off.
Good morning.
Iran later denied that the talks ever happened. Called it fake news. The speaker of their parliament accused the president of manipulating financial markets.
The talks might not be real.
The sixty million dollars is.
The analytics accounts flagged it within the hour. "Unusual activity." "Orders 4-6x larger than anything else trading at the time."
That's their word for it. Unusual.
My word for it is Tuesday.
They always flag it. That's their function. Flagging is not investigating. Flagging is the system's way of noting that it saw something, documenting that it will do nothing, and calling that process oversight.
The actual investigation is conducted by the CFTC. The CFTC has one commissioner. Out of five seats. One.
The other four chairs are empty. Not vacant. Emptied. There is a difference. Vacant means nobody applied. Emptied means somebody decided the body responsible for policing futures markets should not have enough members to hold a vote.
That's not negligence. That's architecture.
You know what we call this pattern on the desk? TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. Escalate on Friday, capitulate on Monday, and extract in the window between the decision and the post.
It's so reliable, we named it. We have a private Slack channel. #taco-tuesday. It updates automatically when Truth Social pushes a new geopolitical keyword.
We don't teach it as insider trading. We teach it as a market structure. New analysts learn it in their first week. By the second week, they stop flinching.
The phone rang at 6:47 AM. Three minutes before I entered the position. The call lasted ninety seconds.
Ninety seconds of context. $60 million of outcome.
You call that insider trading. I understand why. Insider trading is the word you learned. It's the crime from the movies. The whispered merger at a cocktail party. Four hundred shares of a mid-cap pharmaceutical. That gets prosecuted.
That's the version of this crime the system was built to catch.
What I do is different.
I place $1.5 billion against a war decision made in a room I have the phone number to. On a platform overseen by a commission with one member. In a market where the president's social media account is the most powerful price-setting mechanism on earth.
That's not insider trading.
That's infrastructure.
You would go to federal prison for trading on a tip from your brother-in-law. I made $60 million trading on a war. The difference is not the crime. The difference is the decimal point.
Americans paid for this war with four-dollar gas and sixteen billion in taxes. I paid for a phone call. We are not in the same economy.
Last month, $529 million was wagered on Polymarket's Iran strikes market. Six accounts pocketed $1.2 million. Deposited funds the same day. Hours before the bombs fell. One account cleared $553,000 at 17% odds, seventy-one minutes before public confirmation. He has not placed another bet since.
The president's son sits on Polymarket's advisory board. Two federal investigations into the platform were quietly dropped this year. Twelve government officials sold stocks in the weeks before the tariff crash. All of them reported the sales after the deadline.
Nobody calls any of that insider trading. They call it prediction markets. Delayed disclosures. Portfolio rebalancing. I call it the junior varsity version of what I do with futures.
An Oxford law professor called it the most far-reaching securities fraud in history. We call it the window.
Tomorrow, this will be gone. Buried under a new tariff. A new ultimatum. A new TACO. Next Monday at 6:50 AM, I will be here again. Coffee. Three screens. The phone. The ninety-second call. The fourteen-minute window.
The game isn't rigged.
Rigged implies something broke. Nothing broke. Every component is functioning exactly as specified. The one-member commission. The anonymous platforms. The four-second refresh on the Truth Social feed. The phone that rings at 6:47.
I didn't exploit a flaw in the system.
I am the system.
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Davie retweetledi

Nigel Farage took £585,000 from GB News. His MPs declared another £770,000. Four billionaires have spent £170 million building the media machine putting Reform in your living room every night.
Today the Guardian exposed them and what they expect in return. This is a political project funded from the top.
#ReformUK #NigelFarage #GBNews
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Davie retweetledi

@RobertJenrick Why we buy gas from Norway:
1/ Thatcher privatised North Sea gas extraction in 1982.
2/ Private companies plundered our reserves while Norway’s 100% publicly owned Statoil managed theirs strategically.
3/ North Sea oil & gas peaked in 1999 and U.K reserves are now 90% gone.

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Davie retweetledi
Davie retweetledi

Very, very bad news.
As I wrote in Material World, Ras Laffan is one of the most important industrial sites not just in the Gulf but in the world. LNG, helium, other products. Massive.
Whatever happens next, serious damage to this site could reverberate for months, maybe years.
QatarEnergy@qatarenergy
QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar
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Davie retweetledi
Davie retweetledi

Never, ever forget this. Repost again and again!
Nigel Farage offers to work with Peter Mandelson to secure US-UK trade deal | Trade policy | The Guardian share.google/oJUUli0FCohD3Y…
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@ohiain Great Post @ohiain . I'm really learning from you and @SRxTrades posts.
I would add that there will always be an opportunity at some point. May be 10 mins10 days or 10 weeks away, protecting your capital to take advantage of these is key. I've learnt the hard way!
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For all my newbies... here's what I wish I knew sooner:
- simplicity
- few indicators
- simple routine
- let winners run
- candle closes >
- relative strength
- process > profits
- keep losses small
- less activity > more
- trade with the trend
- focus on the higher timeframe
- higher conviction = more size
What else did I miss?
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Davie retweetledi

Is it as appalling and shocking as these Robert?
⬇️
Robert Jenrick
, currently serving as the Reform UK MP for Newark and Shadow Chancellor (appointed February 2026), has been central to several high-profile political controversies. His career has been marked by accusations of bias in planning, breaches of lockdown rules, and most recently, a dramatic defection from the Conservative Party.
UK Parliament +3
Major Political Controversies
Westferry Printworks Planning Scandal (2020): As Housing Secretary, Jenrick unlawfully approved a £1bn housing development for Conservative donor Richard Desmond. The approval was rushed through just 24 hours before a new council tax would have cost Desmond £40m. Jenrick later admitted "apparent bias" after it emerged they had exchanged private texts and sat together at a fundraising dinner.
Defection to Reform UK (2026): In January 2026, Jenrick was sacked from the Conservative Shadow Cabinet by Kemi Badenoch after she discovered "irrefutable evidence" he was secretly plotting to defect to Reform UK. He officially joined Nigel Farage's party hours later, describing the Conservatives as "rotten" and "broken".
COVID-19 Lockdown Breaches (2020): During the first national lockdown, Jenrick faced calls to resign after travelling 150 miles to a second home in Herefordshire and 40 miles to visit his parents. He defended the trips as essential for delivering medicine, despite government guidance at the time to "stay at home".
Asylum Centre "Cartoon" Controversy (2023): While serving as Immigration Minister, Jenrick ordered staff at a Kent asylum reception centre for children to paint over murals of Disney characters (including Mickey Mouse), arguing they were "not age-appropriate" for teenagers. The move was widely condemned as performative and cruel.
Donation from "Shell" Company (2024): During his 2024 Conservative leadership bid, Jenrick accepted a £75,000 donation from Spott Fitness, a company with no employees and significant debts. This sparked questions about the ultimate source of the funds.
Misleading Parliament on Modern Slavery (2023): The UK Statistics Authority formally criticised Jenrick for claiming 71% of foreign offenders were "claiming to be modern slaves" to avoid deportation, when the actual figure was closer to 20%.
BBC +7
Other Notable Incidents
Expenses and Funding: He was forced to repay travel expenses after claiming for both petrol and rail tickets for the same trip, and faced criticism for awarding "levelling up" funds to his own relatively affluent constituency.
Driving Disqualification (2023): He was banned from driving for six months and fined over £1,600 for speeding on the M1.
Handsworth Integration Comments (2025): Jenrick drew sharp criticism for claiming he "didn't see another white face" in Handsworth, Birmingham, framing it as an example of failed integration.
Wikipedia +3
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Jenrick defects to Reform UK after being sacked by Tories - BBC

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Robert Jenrick - Wikipedia

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Robert Jenrick: Teenage Tory to Reform recruit - BBC News

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@SRxTrades @SRxTrades seantradeswhat time frame charts do you use for the undercuts. Are you just talking dailies ?
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Davie retweetledi
Davie retweetledi

I heard about this at the time I was taking May's government to court over misuse of Henry VIII powers - but thought it too fantastical so didn't believe it.
If there is more in the Epstein files that links the Brexit Boys - Farage, Johnson & Bannon - to Epstein - they all need to be investigated!
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