@TaviCosta This is also my view. The worse things get. The more the USA will effectively print.
GIF
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Dave Beitz
5.6K posts
Dave Beitz
@dbeitz6189
I almost never post…
Tiffin, IA Katılım Nisan 2010
513 Takip Edilen865 Takipçiler
Stagflation is written all over this move today.
Gold decisively decoupling from overall equities and rising in step with oil and other hard assets.
So much for the liquidation narrative — it’s gone completely quiet now.
Don’t believe everything you read.
Metals remain supply-constrained, historically underowned relative to financial assets, and deeply undervalued in a world where neutral assets are in high demand as governments rush to build critical mineral reserves.
The defining difference from the 1970s?
A Fed with no real capacity to raise rates.
Game on for hard assets.
open.substack.com/pub/tavicosta/…
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@DschlopesIsBack This guy should be allowed to enter the ring if UFC girl fights get too slow.
GIF
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Is it bad that I’ve watched this 50 times now? 😂
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@yinyang_yo_ @dangainor @GremlinIndustry @BilloscarSmith If property taxes were so high they would force boomers to sell then they would be too high for younger people to pay also.
Larger problem is labor has lost out on a share GDP basis over the last 50 years.
Non imported goods and services are more expensive on a relative basis
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@dangainor @GremlinIndustry @BilloscarSmith If they can afford to still pay the property taxes, cool. If you want to live and maintain a desirable community, you either pay for it or move
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"Property taxes will push grandma out her house!"
The way the suburban model was supposed to work is that retirees sell their houses to downsize, and younger working professionals buy their house
This was supposed to help drive support for the development of smaller houses
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@WallStreetMav Think how motivated the population would be to vote to change laws. Driverless vehicles could be outlawed. Tax law could change to incentivize human labor. Import tariffs could increase to spur domestic production.
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If all of those 10s of millions of jobs are replaced by Ai and robots, who are the customers going to be that keep the economy going?
Universal Basic Income (UBI) has already been discredited. The Fed printing all of the money to replace taxes would destroy the US Dollar.
I really don't see the economic model that exists after AI and robots eliminate 25% to 50% of the jobs. Somehow I am not able to imagine the same transition happening that we saw during previous technology changes.
Is it just me? I am not seeing the future economic system that makes sense.
One thing I am sure of, UBI is not going to be it.
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@elpasser1 @WallStreetMav Agreed. More like non homeowners were locked out.
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@WallStreetMav "Trapped" in cheap mortgages?
That's like saying a mouse is trapped in a box of cheese.
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More homes are for sale.
Prices are down.
But nobody’s buying.
Because the Fed trapped 40 million mortgages in cheap Covid rates so selling would double their payment.
Jerome Powell should have cut rates years ago. Instead, he’s letting them rise, which will make the housing crisis worse.
Peter St Onge, Ph.D.@profstonge
Home sales hit a wall, falling 18% in a single month — the worst since the 2008 crisis. The problem is mortgage rates: They’re too high to buy, but sellers are trapped in cheap Covid-era mortgages. Worse, oil prices are now hiking mortgage rates even higher.
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@WallStreetMav Agreed. our inflation pressure is being caused by excessive fiscal spending relative to tax revenue. FED is acting like the pressure is from cheap monetary policy. Current interest rates are only limiting supply.
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@aus_pill Long term labor share of GDP. Corporations have been growing their margins at the expense of labor for years. They need to increase wages and reduce their margins. They just don’t want to.
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> need high skill workers for a dangerous job
> set wages unreasonably low
> lower than Starbucks
> no one applies
> “see, Americans are too LAZY, we have to import workers”
> import cheap labour
> and their families
Take profit
60 Minutes@60Minutes
Shipyards desperately need welders, pipefitters, and other skilled workers. But this work is grueling and dangerous. cbsn.ws/4bIyP6O
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Re Canada = Most drilling occurs in the winter. When the ground thaws it gets too soft to move heavy equipment. It’s the permafrost…they can’t increase activity until it freezes. #OOTT
Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )@chigrl
Baker Hughes Rig Count March 20 reporting (I hate this metric but everyone watches it) US: 552 vs 553 (prior) Canada: 177 vs 197 (prior) GOM (or A): no change North America total: 729 vs 750 (prior) US Frac Spread Count March 20 (my preferred metric for the US) 164 vs 172 (prior) I have consistently been pounding the table on this on @NTLiveMedia every morning. Just because oil prices have spiked higher on geopolitical risk does not mean that US oil companies will "drill baby drill" on this price spike when their time horizons are 5, 10, 15 years. Time and time again we see these spikes quickly resuming to the mean once the threat is over. Does this happen this time? It totally depends on how long this lasts.
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🚨Rashad Calls $240 - $260 Silver late summer.. Do you agree?🚨
👇👇👇👇👇
Rashad Hajiyev@hajiyev_rashad
I think most of the longs have been wiped out after second wave of decline in silver. Silver could be forming a double bottom and reversal could be forming towards March end with rally potentially starting in April and lasting into late summer to my $240 - $260 target...
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Funds are long 230k corn contracts and 200k beans
They will liquidate their long positions on first sniff of ceasefire….
Funds don’t care except making money
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*TRUMP SAYS US CONSIDERING 'WINDING DOWN' IRAN MILITARY EFFORT
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@JLinvilleFert What percentage do you think is not priced in Midwest? 10-20%?
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@dbeitz6189 I think there are more than usual that are not priced but thank God for those that priced early.
This is going to be tough on those that haven't.
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N.A. farmers are in good shape for spring fertilizer.
Potash - everything should be in place
Phosphate - everything should be in place
NH3 - most demand is met by domestic production
UAN - most demand is met by domestic production
Urea - of the 5 - 5.5M import needed, 3.5M already lined up thru March
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@ISeeUOSINT @JavierBlas Helped the Democrats win big in Midterms?
Increased profits for domestic oil and fertilizer companies?
F’d up my portfolio which was doing great until this started…
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@JavierBlas I’m so confused what have we actually accomplished?
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BREAKING: Trump on Iran:
"We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts [...] The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not!"
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@dailydirtnap If enough of the population rebels against AI related unemployment is it really100% unstoppable?
Politicians prey on voters fears. Rising unemployment will consolidate a lot of political power.
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I'll be glad when he's gone, but there will just be hundreds more to take his place.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸Bernie is complaining about Bezos investing in robots like automation isn't inevitable. The guy has been in Congress for 30+ years and his solution to everything is still just "tax the rich."
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Don’t worry, whatever Trump ends up doing in the Iran War—ending, continuing, escalating, whatever—is what he planned to do from the very beginning.
GIF
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@sixfootcandy @tylerdurdenhi Yup, McDonalds cheeseburger was 49 cents and hamburger was 39 cents when I was In college. I think we have experienced US service related inflation but not the equal wage inflation to offset it.
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@tylerdurdenhi How much were McDonalds cheeseburgers? They were less than a dollar, right?
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As a Gen Xer, I can tell you boomers and even my own generation comparing their 20s to today’s 20-30 year-olds needs to stop. I paid $600 for a West Hollywood apartment at 23. Today it’s $3500. Burgers weren’t $20, they were $6 to $8 in a nice restaurant. Life is not comparable. It’s a completely different world now.
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EVERY SAFE HAVEN JUST FAILED
BTC. GOLD. STOCKS. OIL. FIAT.
THE WHOLE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS BREAKING.
WHERE DOES CAPITAL GO NOW?
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