@conorsen Inventory still down about 30% vs the same time of year pre COVID calculatedriskblog.com/2024/07/housin…
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Dan Kahn
18K posts
Dan Kahn
@dbkahn
Radio silent here // previously @Plaid @CapitalOne @Wharton @CommonBond @Kennedy_School @Kiva
Katılım Ekim 2010
2.4K Takip Edilen4.8K Takipçiler
Inventory is way up, mortgage rates are down YoY, yet transactions won’t budge — I find this a bit perplexing.
Mike Simonsen 🐉@mikesimonsen
Pending Home Sales - Only 62,000 in the new sales pending cohort of single family homes this week. That’s barely rebounded from the holiday in early July. - 9% fewer home sales started this week than the same week in 2023. 🤯 - It’s obviously too soon after mortgage rates dipped to see consumer behavior change, but zowie, this is moving in the wrong direction. - In this chart of new pendings each week you can see how sales were running a bit ahead of last year, but are now back at the same (low) levels. I’ve highlighted the change since May. 4/8
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@dbkahn They had a 1.5x promo with Bilt last week- I could have gotten you a bunch!
I have ~40k now
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@csuitecounsel @jevgenijs For CapOne that is a blended rate. Card business is much higher (see page 9 of their earnings presentation) investor.capitalone.com/static-files/8…
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@dbkahn @jevgenijs If NIM for Amex was 13.4% in Q1, for Discover - 11%, and for CapOne - 6.7%, how can one tell who has better risk management capability based on that information alone if they are targeting different segments?
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So...Discover's $DFS credit card loan portfolio seems to be better than Capital One's $COF (at least from the FICO score perspective). The share of loans to borrowers with a FICO score of 660 and above:
✔️ Discover -> 80%
✔️ Capital One -> 68%
Jevgenijs Kazanins@jevgenijs
Discover's $DFS credit card, student, and personal loans portfolio by FICO score 👇🏻
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@csuitecounsel @jevgenijs Look at Net Interest / total portfolio then compare losses…
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@jevgenijs This is on purpose, though, more of an indication that CapOne has more risk appetite and potentially better analytics to lend to this segment. Its delinquency is also higher, so it's not like their secret sauce is out of this world.
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@iamjakestream There are 5 congressional districts where the red candidate got 60% or more of the vote
There are 24 congressional districts where the blue candidate got 60% or more of the vote
SF has 2 reps (both Dem) and LA has 17 reps (including 3 Republicans)
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People forget that outside of LA and SF, CA is a red state
Daniel Herrold@DanielHerrold
Never thought I’d ever see this in California.
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@kimmaicutler @pitdesi Reminder that the Final Solution (with caps) actually started out with plans for mass deportations and evolved after those plans proved impractical en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madagasca…
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@kimmaicutler @pitdesi It’s unfortunate, but Stephen Miller was the most effective Trump advisor in term 1. He knows the entire immigration apparatus and how to grind legal immigration to a halt and now he’s got his sights set on a final solution.
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I hope he is serious but can’t forget what happened last time
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in this case it's so blatantly painful to watch because this was WEEKS away from rolling out - we could even just experiment with it for 6 months, or iterate once launched (e.g. drop it from $15 to $5)
but to kill this outright after legitimately 15+ years of it getting the necessary approvals is just embarrassing from a process perspective
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what frustrates me about the government in general is that it's insanely hard to get a yes to do something and too easy for one no to shut it down
Either it should be easy to get yes with an easy to reverse, which allows for experimentation quickly to get results before a wider rollout
Or hard to get yes and hard to reverse no, which means people can effectively plan long term when a final yes is made knowing it'll actually come to fruition
the final decision of congestion pricing is bad, but what's even more depressing is the process
Rebecca C. Lewis@_rebeccaclewis
"I have directed the MTA to indefinitely pause (the congestion pricing) program," Gov. Kathy Hochul confirms
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@conorsen Political malpractice by NY Dems. Mayor @ericadamsfornyc and Governor @KathyHochul both deserve to be replaced if this is what they’re going to deliver!
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I'm buying Japanese capsule beds as nap pods for our new SF office. If you want to bulk order with me, they should be something like $1000/bed.
Please DM me if interested!
Comparable products sold in the US cost like $15K
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Visiting LA next week and have a few slots open for founders, operators, angels, investors, etc - who are some great peeps to meet?
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Fintech is hard, but @sophgoldb and the team @cheaperpayments are absolutely the team to make closed loop payments happen! techcrunch.com/2024/04/30/wal…
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@zbruhnke @John_PiazzaIV @alexisohanian Thanks JP and ZB! Whether NorCal or SoCal, I’m long fintech and CA 💪❤️
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I'm curious, Twitter, who do you think are the best FinTech angels in SF?
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@regulatorynerd You won’t like the 3x revenue multiple after cost cuts 😭 pcmag.com/news/dropbox-c…
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While cool, I’d rather have them focus on cost reduction so they can IPO or direct list. Stripe could be an amazing acquirer of the companies that are beating them in the market in products like card issuing.
Micah Springut@mspringut
It’s showtime! Our Stripe sculpture now on display at Stripe Sessions. It took just one month to fully design, mill, and hand finish this 6ft sculpture in Carrara marble.
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@JacobyBrandon @CharleyMa @SoFi @Chase Penny wise and pound foolish my friend. I was a very happy FRB customer and willing to consider using JPM for products that have $10,000s of CLV (both business and personal). Will definitely be looking for other, more customer focused firms now…
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@dbkahn @CharleyMa @SoFi @Chase They probably made a good chunk on selling them to SoFi + don’t have to deal with the cost/operational burden of servicing them themselves to make a marginal (for them, relatively speaking) amount
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Thought that I fell for a phishing scam today...but apparently I didn't (honestly still unclear)
So @SoFi is now servicing first republics personal LOCs, but the onboarding process has been pretty idiotic.
First, I got two emails with two different directions...
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@andreasklinger This is a startup that is building an alternative measure to government data. They find that actual inflation is now…lower than reported in official figures 😂 truflation.com
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People should use google maps menu photos to track real world inflation.
Example:
Döner in a popular Berlin spot (Rosenthaler Platz Grill)
6 years ago: €3.40
4 years: €3.90
2 years: €4.40
3 months: €6.90 (!) 🤯
And people don’t believe me when i say BLN got expensive. 👀
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