David Contreras-Loya

The morning after submission

Recently accepted by #QJE: “How Do You Identify a Good Manager?” by Weidmann, Vecci, Said, Bhalotra, Adhvaryu, Nyshadham, Tamayo, and Deming: doi.org/10.1093/qje/qj…

OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google use 10 internal prompting techniques that guarantee near-perfect accuracy…and nobody outside the labs is supposed to know them. Here are 10 of them (Bookmark this for later):

Does care quality change when doctors meet patients by phone vs. in person? A new @nberpubs study by J-PAL affiliate @paul_gertler & coauthors finds: 📌 Telemedicine = higher quality for respiratory cases 📌 Comparable quality for malaria 📌 Lower costs & less overprescription 📄 nber.org/papers/w34185

Recently accepted to #REStud, "Normalizations and misspecification in skill formation models," from Joachim Freyberger: restud.com/normalizations…

🚨 New NBER working paper: "The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Parenting and Children" This paper estimates the effects of receiving a $1,000/month guaranteed income for 3 years, compared to a control group receiving $50/month, on children and parents in the US. 1/

Really cool paper, which was unfortunately never published due to ethical concerns. Thompson and Hanley found that creating new Wikipedia articles changed the content of scientific papers. As a way of disseminating information, it is ludicrously cost effective.

Deep meritocracy is fundamentally unstable, because elites can't tolerate their kids losing. They will engage in destructive status competition with each other, and also just directly corrupt the institutions. 1/

📖🎉My new book, Impact Evaluation in Firms and Organizations With Applications in R and Python, will be published on August 5th by @mitpress and is now available for pre-order: mitpress.mit.edu/9780262552929/… #econtwitter #statstwitter

Not too much goin' on today, so I thought I'd tell you about a new paper just published in @NEJMEvidence, w/ @metrics52, @carolxmgao, and @rwyeh We explain why instrumental variable (IV) methods are essential for randomized trials of medical interventions that fail to play out as intended (i.e., with imperfect treatment takeup & control group crossover) In an application to the landmark ISCHEMIA trial, these methods show that the benefits of revascularization on quality of life are 46% higher than what a conventional "intentions-based" analysis would suggest Check it out! dropbox.com/scl/fi/lsnmm2g…

Since most here have concluded that wokeness was a mental illness, it's worth highlighting some of the positive elements. fwiw, I also think stuff like cancelling algebra if black students perform worse on average was insane.

This QJE piece is fascinating. Cognitive endurance as a sort of trainable muscle. Really novel and persuasive.

Showing that alternative data from digital transactions through a delivery app are effective at predicting creditworthiness for borrowers with no credit history, from Laura Chioda, @paul_gertler, @SeanKHiggins, and Paolina C. Medina nber.org/papers/w33208

@koosukeaf Así es my darling, antes cobraban más por gráficas a color, y si quieres que no haya paywall (open access) es otra feria 🤡

@dcloya esto te pasa a ti amigo?

De las satisfacciones más grandes como profesor es ver a tus alumnos presentar sus trabajos en foros internacionales y ampliar su red de colaboración, enhorabuena @karinasanchez #ICUH2024 @EGobiernoyTP @EVIS_EGobyTP @IOR_Obesity @TecdeMonterrey

Uno de los infiernos de Dante se llama Av. Constituyentes

In this paper, recently available online, I measure and describe inequality of opportunity (IOp) in overnutrition for the adult population in Mexico using distributional regression techniques. (1/3)

Don't miss out on this guide on how to run surveys: on creating your own identifying variation: more than 80 pages and an Appendix with examples including social desirability, vignettes, information treatments and more.

How does public social care expenditure affect users' care-related quality of life? In this new publication, we provide evidence of the channels through which this effect exist taking the case of the Adult Social Care programme of England. (1/2) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.10…

Great tutorial on instrumental variables for social scientists! As an update, we now have a specialized package for sensitivity analysis of IV: github.com/carloscinelli/…