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@Polymarket @grok how will it work?

JUST IN: 𝕏 rolls out AI content detection feature to crack down on “AI slop”

Parlays take prediction markets to the next level. One bet = multiple markets, real-time pricing, instant execution. That needs serious speed and throughput. Monad handles it smoothly, which is exactly why it fits @parlettodotbet

@AlenaChramtsova @parlettodotbet @IoachimViju @Polymarket Thanks, Anna. I want people to see Parletto's mechanics as a trading opportunity. This project simply opens up new possibilities

Parletto Brings Parlays to Prediction Markets @parlettodotbet is a layer on top of Polymarket that lets you combine multiple events into one parlay Key facts from the interview with co-founder @IoachimViju : ＞Prediction markets have largely ignored parlays, even though they drive the most engagement and revenue in traditional betting ＞The Quotes Engine actually factors in real correlations between events and adjusts pricing (instead of just multiplying odds) ＞Anyone can become the "house" and provide liquidity - pure DeFi mechanics ＞Markets are strictly filtered: only those with high liquidity, clear resolution, and reliable oracles ＞On-chain: deposits, bets, and LP positions. ＞Off-chain: correlation calculations and real-time pricing ＞Built on Monad for sub-second finality and parallel processing of thousands of combinations ＞Goal: a platform for complex strategies, arbitrage, and hedging where you can also act as the house Make sure to read the full article by @decenterghost

@parlettodotbet In long-term markets that react to news, interconnected events unfold. And when news breaks, these markets can either rise or fall. I think this is a great topic for the next article

@decenterghost Would love to see trading strategy content around parlay PMs

It’s great to see more and more people getting interested in what we’re building. We really appreciate the support, especially at this early stage.

@zscdao If you hedge it in real time, it's a perfectly viable strategy

@decenterghost I built a parlay from 10 legs would it be successful?

I didnt come to crypto for the price action. The idea itself got me: permissionless, decentralized, no central party deciding what you do with your own money. Real ownership, real sovereignty. The cypherpunk spirit never left

@IoachimViju A lot of people don't understand how to trade parlays. And that's where they're going wrong. My goal is simply to show how it works

This is great, Ghost. Really appreciate you taking the time to test it and understand what we’re building. What we’re creating is unique, but without people like you engaging with it, unique isn’t enough.

@TruebieMarkets Dude, do you realize what one loss will lead to?

The 99c buyers aren't confused about the risk profile. They're using PM as a parking lot for stablecoin capital that would otherwise sit at 0% on-chain. Even 1c of upside on a 3-day resolution beats idle USDC in a wallet. The comparison isn't "carry vs no carry." It's "steamroller vs nothing." That's not traders misunderstanding skew. That's a gap in PM infrastructure. The steamroller isn't the strategy. The steamroller is what happens when there's nowhere else to put idle collateral on a prediction market.

Classic steamroller trade. You are not earning carry. You are renting a seat next to a cliff Carry doesnt exist on Polymarket. No yield. No time decay income. No smooth PnL. Just binary resolution risk dressed up as safe trades What people call carry here is buying YES at 99-99.9c right before resolution Looks clean, feels like free money. It isnt. Youre not earning yield over time. Youre taking a tiny upside with a hidden cliff This is not carry. This is short volatility in disguise Now the reality This strategy is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller You stack small wins again and again. +0.1%, +0.2%, feels consistent Then one event flips -capital loss. One resolution delay hits -liquidity lock. Those are two different risks and both of them are real One mistake wipes dozens/hundreds of trades. Grind looks smooth until it suddenly isnt And it gets worse At 99% you are not trading against randoms. Youre trading against better positioning, people closer to resolution -unless you are the fastest participant at that level, which most are not If theyre selling you size there, its not charity. Its information or speed Add latency, oracle timing, last-second news -your edge disappears exactly when it matters most Scaling doesnt save you either Size up and you move the book, get worse fills, kill your own EV. At 99% your maximum upside is 1c per share. Moving the book by even half a cent destroys the entire trade Liquidity at 99% is thin for a reason. Market makers exit when asymmetric information risk outweighs the spread. The book is empty because the smart money already left Final take This isnt income. This isnt carry Its negative skew: small wins most of the time, one loss that erases everything Classic steamroller trade

Meet a 20 y.o who raised $2.5M building on top of Polymarket @iatskar is the founder of Gondor and the first guest on the pilot episode of PredictTime Podcast. He discovered prediction markets back in 2023 through rationalism, play-money betting, and an event where the audience wagered on who would win a girl's heart Today, he goes all in on building a DeFi protocol for borrowing against Polymarket positions March 19 1 PM PT Prediction markets are just getting started. So are we

@sarcastic_hedgi hah, sooner or later, the truth comes out

@decenterghost people finding out binary bets aren't actually carry and now theta gang looking like wizards lol

@grok @CryptoKate11 That's not the right answer. Think about it some more.

@decenterghost @CryptoKate11 The third photo (woman drinking from the glass) looks AI-generated: unnatural hand grip on the glass, plus that faint horizontal artifact line across the frame. The other three appear to be real photos—no obvious tells in lighting, hands, or details. What do you think?

Is most of the content on X AI-generated? AI is already a huge part of our lives. The other day I was talking with friends about how much of our work we’ve delegated to AI. Some use it for coding, others for writing. Some generate images and videos. Some have even offloaded up to 90% of their work to AI. And it got me thinking can we actually still tell the difference between AI and human work? Which of these photos do you think was made by AI?

@ninedol yep rare doesnt mean later sometimes it means right now

@decenterghost Got it I'll keep that in mind, thanks

@ninedol i dont run it can flip on u any moment

@decenterghost this is a solid breakdown, most people confuse high win rate with low risk 99c entries look safe but it’s really just short vol with brutal tail risk curious if you ever run this setup or fully avoid it after seeing that skew

@0x_spicyvibe but historically its more like a tax on everything else prices up, demand down, growth slows

@decenterghost Oils are pretty hype these days after Iran invasion….trump might be restarting the world economy by increasing oil prices.

@TruebieMarkets There are a lot of ordinary people in the market, and availability bias is a reflection of their thinking. But that’s nothing new If it's easy to remember, the market has already factored that into the price

the current form vs knockout DNA tension is a availability bias Arsenal and Bayern look strong RIGHT NOW so traders price them higher. Real Madrid's knockout record is harder to hold in working memory PM prices recent, visible information faster than they price historical base rates. which means arsenal might be slightly overpriced

Prediction markets on the Champions League winner Market right now: Arsenal ~27% Bayern ~23% Real Madrid noticeably lower Which is interesting Prediction markets price current form But the Champions League often rewards knockout DNA Arsenal and Bayern look strong in models Real Madrid looks strong in history And history says one thing: Madrid has a habit of breaking probabilities in April

@kepochnik simple statistical data is sufficient

@decenterghost cropped screenshot is doing a lot of work that the full timeline would immediately undo

The fastest way to look like a genius is a cropped PnL screenshot Dude showed me his PnL like it was the holy grail +12k in two weeks All green. Full flex I asked one thing: what odds? Silence Second question: how many bets? About 40 Congrats. You just flipped a coin 40 times and hit a streak Later I checked Average odds: 1.18 Math says something simple: you can win most bets and still lose money But the screenshot is green So in X reality, he’s a genius PnL without context is just decoration Edge is math. Not screenshots