decosed 🤪👊
1.5K posts
decosed 🤪👊
@decosed
@polymarket ambassador + @zscdao member (* ^ ω ^)
Katılım Ağustos 2020
550 Takip Edilen460 Takipçiler
that feeling when you've made 36,000 predictions since july and none of them came close to what happened the night i connected openclaw to nba analytics
$179,100. one bet. asleep.
decosed 🤪👊@decosed
BREAKING: Someone deployed OpenClaw on Polymarket for the first time and walked away with $357,940 in a single day sovereign2013, joined July 2025, 36,625 predictions in 8 months: @sovereign2013?via=decosed-qujt" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@sovereign2013…
> Single day P&L: +$357,940 > All-time biggest win: $179,100 > Active positions: $28.2K > Win rate today: 11/12 > One loss: $42 This was the day OpenClaw proved what it's actually capable of The agent ingested injury reports, lineup rotations and referee assignments across every NBA game then ran two formulas on every single market: EV = (P_win × Payout) - (1 - P_win) - only markets above 8% edge passed f* = (b × p - q) / b - Kelly Criterion sized every position so the bankroll never got overleveraged Pure math executing faster than any human could Top closed positions: - Arizona ML +$179K - Tulane ML +$81K - Raiders spread +$73K - Minnesota ML +$71K - Heat/Lakers over +$71K The $179K Arizona bet had 1.7 million shares behind it at 86.7¢ average entry. The most interesting part is the Bucks spread arb - OpenClaw detected mispricing across -1.5 / -2.5 / -3.5 lines on the same game and built a layered position across all three simultaneously while sovereign2013 was asleep 11 out of 12 positions closed green. The one loss was $42. OpenClaw had one job on its first real day. It delivered. English
Two Google engineers quit their jobs after turning $300 → $80K on Polymarket weather markets
at google they had been training ML models on climate data to get highly accurate forecasts
their ML model started to predict ultra-rare weather events {0.01¢-0.1¢}
result was crazy:
25$ → 12,452$
16$ → 8,106$
13$ → 6,850$
the model is trading weather in rare regions like Tokyo, Wellington and Ankara.
they had 0 lose days for the past month and made +$41K profit
profile: polymarket.com/profile/%40Col…
Start copy-trading ML model using Kreo: @copywallet" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@copywallet
Pinned their research below ↓
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$130 → $3,000 on Polymarket.
A friend of mine built a bot inspired by stacks like this, so this thread immediately stood out to me.
The setup was similar:
LLM probability estimates, EV filters, Kelly sizing, onchain execution, and Telegram monitoring.
Strong framework.
But the tools were only part of the edge.
What really mattered was how he used them:
better market selection, less noise, smaller size when conviction was lower, and no forcing trades just to stay active.
That’s the part I find most interesting about systems like this.
The stack gives you structure.
Judgment is what makes it work.
What to trade.
What to ignore.
When to size up.
When to sit out.
Two bots can look almost identical on paper
and still produce completely different results.
Lunar@LunarResearcher
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@xmayeth finally the time has come when I can hand the routine over to robots and just make money
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Went away for the weekend. Gave my Claude one task - find an edge on Polymarket.
$9,900 -> $53,000!
He found a hack to do 5-100x in a single trade!
I DIDN'T EVEN KNOW THIS WAS POSSIBLE!
It's simple. On Polymarket you bet on one outcome. Claude found a platform where you can combine multiple outcomes into one bet.
He took two trades that are obvious to anyone who's been on Polymarket for at least a week. Stacked them into a parlay - multipliers on multipliers. 5.43x from a single entry.
I landed, opened TG right away, go to my Claude chat and see a message from him - 'Sir, I made you $53,000 in the most interesting way.'
I asked 'Claude, how did you do this?'
He sent me a link: polyboost.xyz/?ref=poly
Turns out there's a platform on top of Polymarket where you can build parlays. Pick a few outcomes, odds multiply - and you get a multiplier that simply doesn't exist on regular Polymarket.
They already have ready-made AI-curated parlays with high win rates.
People are quietly doing 5-50x while everyone else sits on single bets with penny profits.
Seriously, I regret not finding this sooner.
Go check out the picks - you'll get it in a minute: polyboost.xyz/?ref=poly
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@LunarResearcher nothing’s lost yet bro
just gotta read the article and start moving
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me realizing this guy mass-built a profitable trading bot in 2 weeks spending $8/month total while I spent $2,000 trading on gut feeling and still can't break even
Lunar@LunarResearcher
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@gippp69 probably the best article i’ve read lately
let’s see how much money i pull from it
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Most traders think edge = one indicator or setup
This article breaks it down properly
real edge comes from multiple layers:
>execution quality
>data advantages
>structural inefficiencies
>volatility + timing
You’re not competing on one signal
you’re competing on systems
Good breakdown, especially for beginners who still believe in “one strategy”
Aleiah@AleiahLock
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$94K in debt, can't find a job, started copying Polymarket wallets to survive
2 months in: lost another $4,300
Why? The wallet everyone was riding showed 89% win rate.
Dug deeper with @join" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@join wallet analysis after seeing this article below with the full 60+ edges breakdown:
> 92% win rate when wallets stacked real edges (structural liq cascades, info edge, factor premiums, volatility stack).
> 15% win rate on politics.
> 11% on sports bets.
I was copying EVERYTHING - their wins AND their garbage no-edge trades.
Started filtering hard on Kreo to copy ONLY wallets running 4+ actual edges from the list (IBKR execution, FlightRadar24 aviation alpha, SSRN factors, VRP, calendar timing).
Last 30 days: +$52K profit.
Stop copying blind in 2026.
The real meta isn’t drawing lines or hoping - it’s stacking edges the smart way.
Kreo + @AleiahLock playbook = cheat code.
Just try here: [t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…].
Bookmark this right now before you copy another wallet’s weakness.
The biggest edge isn’t a new indicator it’s riding the wallets that already run the full stack.
Aleiah@AleiahLock
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I built a Polymarket bot that runs on $8/month
32 tools. 2 weeks. Zero days off
Here's what's actually inside:
Claude reads every market and returns one number - the real probability. Not vibes. Not gut feeling. Math.
Then 3 filters decide everything:
→ EV under 5% edge - skip
→ Kelly Criterion - exact position size
→ Log returns - real P&L, not the number that lies to you
The part nobody talks about:
FOK orders fail on thin markets. Switched to GTC. Fill rate: 60% → 95%
No Telegram alerts? Bot freezes silently for 6 hours. Lost money. Added alerts
No balance check? Bot trades at 3 AM with an empty wallet. Also learned that one the hard way
50+ markets scanned per cycle
2-4 trades per day
$8/month to run
The tools are cheap. The math is public
The edge is just actually doing it
Lunar@LunarResearcher
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@polymarketsuc @Polymarket don’t get people who aren’t living their best life rn without polymarket
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When you’re weather trader on Polymarket and earn $3,000 daily…
PolymarketSuccubus@polymarketsuc
$580 > $2,270 Turns best weather trader on polymarket Another perfect order from HondaCivic on Will the highest temperature in New York be between 56-57F on March 22? > Total = $580 > Bought at 16,8c > NET Profit +$1,690 > ROI +291% Look to new best weather orders in his Profile → @HondaCivic?via=traderplus" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@HondaCivic?vi…
Copy his trade via best poly bot - Polygun Or trading manual yourself in official tg bot → t.me/PolyGunSniperB… English
BREAKING: Someone deployed OpenClaw on Polymarket for the first time and walked away with $357,940 in a single day
sovereign2013, joined July 2025, 36,625 predictions in 8 months:
@sovereign2013?via=decosed-qujt" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@sovereign2013…
> Single day P&L: +$357,940
> All-time biggest win: $179,100
> Active positions: $28.2K
> Win rate today: 11/12
> One loss: $42
This was the day OpenClaw proved what it's actually capable of
The agent ingested injury reports, lineup rotations and referee assignments across every NBA game then ran two formulas on every single market:
EV = (P_win × Payout) - (1 - P_win) - only markets above 8% edge passed
f* = (b × p - q) / b - Kelly Criterion sized every position so the bankroll never got overleveraged
Pure math executing faster than any human could
Top closed positions:
- Arizona ML +$179K
- Tulane ML +$81K
- Raiders spread +$73K
- Minnesota ML +$71K
- Heat/Lakers over +$71K
The $179K Arizona bet had 1.7 million shares behind it at 86.7¢ average entry.
The most interesting part is the Bucks spread arb - OpenClaw detected mispricing across -1.5 / -2.5 / -3.5 lines on the same game and built a layered position across all three simultaneously while sovereign2013 was asleep
11 out of 12 positions closed green. The one loss was $42.
OpenClaw had one job on its first real day. It delivered.
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@decosed Please cab you send me his wallet addy so I can copy trade?
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He made $987K on Polymarket. Then vanished for a month. Today he’s back.
I track wallets with my scanner.
One address went into my watchlist in January - the volumes were massive. $150K-$400K per position.
Then silence. A whole month. I thought he was done.
Today my bot pinged: he’s back.
I pulled up his closed positions. Sorted by P&L.
11 positions. 11 green. Not a single loss.
Nine out of eleven were bets on NO - the favorite not winning.
Entry prices almost always between 34¢ and 59¢ - the exact zone where the market overestimates the favorite’s chances.
Total profit from those 11 alone? Pushing a million dollars!
This isn’t a trader. This is a mathematical machine.
I dumped his entire history into Claude.
The answer: High probability of algorithmic behavior - systematic entries, no tilt patterns. Either an autonomous model or a mathematician who built a predictive engine.”
Now I’m watching his current activity - today, March 22.
Small buys, but the same signature:
NO on favorites, entries in the mispriced zone.
Barcelona, Utrecht, Celtic, Bochum - scattered across Europe.
He’s awake. And he’s loading up again.
This bot already caught him once for me.
A month ago, before he went silent, I threw in $50 and let it copy his moves.
That $50 turned into something I’m not mad about:
t.me/KreoPolyBot?st…
That’s the bot.
Now it’s copying him again. Automatically.
Football. NO. One million in sight.
Don’t sleep.
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Two potentially profitable bets on @Polymarket
First (safer): I hold the position for the launch tomorrow, March 23, the chances are still 96%, you can get 4% profit
Second (risky): Bet on NO >200M FDV
Right at launch, the trading will be higher, but when the Airdrop is distributed, there will be a big sale and a price dump
Maybe at some point the chances will increase and it will be possible to sell more expensively with a profit
Will you be following the launch of Backpack?
mahera@mahera777
Free money on @Polymarket ? Backpack announced TGE on March 23, but the chances on Polymarket are not 100% yet with $10,000 -> $121 profit
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Just a regular student built himself an analytics terminal and ended up a millionaire (almost).
His real time system scrapes League of Legends (LoL) esports matches, calculates the micro probabilities of each team winning down to the smallest detail, spots the absolute perfect entry points, and spits out ready made profitable calls.
Under the hood, it’s a wild mix of tech: a predictive model built on LNN architecture + MiroFish.
And you know what the funniest part is?
The dude who made an AI print hundreds of thousands of dollars for him still hasn't learned how to spell the word "millionaire" correctly :)
Meet melonaire1.
Here are a few stats from his account:
> Net Profit: $200,789
> Craziest payout: $166,566 from just one bet
> Predictions: 329
> Positions Value: $25,000
Right now, his terminal just flashed a new opportunity and has already loaded almost $20,000 into the Bilibili Gaming vs. JD Gaming matches.
/// > The machine clearly sees something there that regular viewers are completely missing.
Why waste years studying teams and trying to build your own million dollar AI when you can blindly copy the trades of this "melonaire"?
🔗 His profile: @melonaire1?tab=positions&via=all" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@melonaire1?ta…
You can copy his trades through: @shmidtqq" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@shmidtqq
The @kreoapp team is constantly pushing updates to their copytrading bot, making it one of the fastest out there right now.
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> burned through almost my whole balance on polymarket… kept betting favorites like everyone else, tilted fast
> late one night ran a scanner, one wallet popped up with heavy entries - 150-400k$, added it to watch and forgot about it
> checked the history later… 11 positions in a row, all green, not one miss
> almost all through NO, just fading favorites, but not random - all in one zone, 34…59
> like he sees where the line is off and just waits
> a month of nothing, figured it was dead
> today the bot pings, same wallet loading up again
> barca, celtic, same signatures
> I just turned on copytrading mode and after that didn't touch anything… just watched the counter go up
> balance is now 10x what I had left after the blowup
> and the strangest part... I barely did anything… just copied someone else's entries
decosed 🤪👊@decosed
He made $987K on Polymarket. Then vanished for a month. Today he’s back. I track wallets with my scanner. One address went into my watchlist in January - the volumes were massive. $150K-$400K per position. Then silence. A whole month. I thought he was done. Today my bot pinged: he’s back. I pulled up his closed positions. Sorted by P&L. 11 positions. 11 green. Not a single loss. Nine out of eleven were bets on NO - the favorite not winning. Entry prices almost always between 34¢ and 59¢ - the exact zone where the market overestimates the favorite’s chances. Total profit from those 11 alone? Pushing a million dollars! This isn’t a trader. This is a mathematical machine. I dumped his entire history into Claude. The answer: High probability of algorithmic behavior - systematic entries, no tilt patterns. Either an autonomous model or a mathematician who built a predictive engine.” Now I’m watching his current activity - today, March 22. Small buys, but the same signature: NO on favorites, entries in the mispriced zone. Barcelona, Utrecht, Celtic, Bochum - scattered across Europe. He’s awake. And he’s loading up again. This bot already caught him once for me. A month ago, before he went silent, I threw in $50 and let it copy his moves. That $50 turned into something I’m not mad about: t.me/KreoPolyBot?st… That’s the bot. Now it’s copying him again. Automatically. Football. NO. One million in sight. Don’t sleep.
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BREAKING: The SpaceX IPO is now projected to close above $2 trillion after the announcement of TERAFAB.
55% chance.
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