DVD

$ASTS $VOD 🧵Vodafone Investment Thesis Current Price (2H FY26): $13 FY28 PT: ~$23 The Thesis in Brief: Vodafone has successfully transitioned from a distressed conglomerate into a disciplined, growth-focused connectivity platform. The market is currently pricing VOD on backwards-looking metrics; fixated on the painful German MDU transition and historical debt bloat. This creates a dislocation. This view identifies three mispriced levers that will drive a re-rating in FY27 and continued multiple expansion beyond: Germany Turns the Corner: The operational drag from the TV Law change is fully priced in. FY27 represents the first clean year of EBITDA growth in the core German market. The "SatCo" Option: The joint venture with AST SpaceMobile is currently valued at zero by consensus. We view it as a high-margin infrastructure monopoly for European Direct-to-Device (D2D) connectivity, worth ~$2.00/share alone on FY28 EBITDA estimates discounted backwards. Capital Discipline as a Floor: The massive share buyback program (reducing float by ~15% vs. FY24) provides a mechanical floor to the stock price, while structurally lowering the dividend burden.

@real_sunny_long Ur a gigantic dumb ass who will be proven wrong. I do this shit for a living. I eat, breathe and shit this stuff out everyday.

$RKLB Be careful whose advice you take. This bozo is spreading misinformation left and right about Rocket Lab. I don’t mind quality information, both bullish and bearish, but I have a problem with lying or arguing without having no clue of how economics work. Apple gives the feature for free, but it is time limited from activation. We cannot tell it will continue to be free for users. Even so, the service is not free for Apple. They bought a stake in Globalstar. This is expensive for Apple (millions to billions of dollars invested), but they’ve chosen to absorb those costs to offer it free to users, at least for now. Nothing is free.

@Alan1158927 Really? I’ve lost followers for this bear thesis. You think I give a shit? I’m in the business of being right, not to make friends.

@deepvaluedude Rklb the only reason why you’re getting this much attention. Better close your shorts soon, 100+ inevitable

$RKLB 1 year PT. Sentiment check.

@vexecutioner3 That’s a good thing.

@deepvaluedude LoL majority of people don’t even agree with you on your poll.

@Ral_Gor You take what you can get!

@deepvaluedude Why file (sell) now when price so low?

$LUNR odds of a form 4 this week by the large holder? I for one think it’s happening tomorrow!

$RKLB Sir Peter Beck might be the greatest trader alive. He called a multi-year top and sold >$350M of stock. And retail is still convinced that it’s normal for a founder to cash in chips on his horse. Either the founder knows the horse is broken or thinks the rest of the world is overestimating his horse. Either way, directionally negative.

@RKLB_KevinJames Yep rklb is a big fat $0 donut/bagel whatever you like

@deepvaluedude Don’t Value Donuts 🍩

@Ricciaced $ASTS LOL @TMFAssociates I think I found the new #cluelesscult

@deepvaluedude no idea how you can be so bullish on highly speculative 5g network system which won’t ever be more than a stepping stone for ISPs yet so bearish on a company with a real moat

$RKLB $78 currently. And lower we go!

@AntiGrifts96172 @SpaceSector001

When the fundamentals change that’s when you change. Investing should never be faith based. Intuition is different than faith. Intuitively this is a bad acquisition. Management teams make mistakes. They are human. SPB is not infallible. The numbers do not make any sense whatsoever no matter how you spin it.

$IRDM. If I didn’t love the leadership, I sure do now, post acquisition. Read below. Earnings July 22

@RKLB_KevinJames Maybe… depends if investors behave rationally

@deepvaluedude Why not 20?

$RKLB headed to the $60 range this week folks.

@RKLB_KevinJames Then $40!

@deepvaluedude I hope so, I will buy MORE! Thanks 😊

@AntiGrifts96172 @SpaceSector001 Exactly. It’s priced at a premium, fully priced in perfect execution and a decade worth of FCF positive operating business. How does this value decay as things don’t play out so perfectly?

@deepvaluedude @SpaceSector001 Granted, you may see this as hyperbole. Which I can't say much but fair enough. The deal is juistfied by the revenue now, the Spectrum value and time to market is what makes the premium which will coexist even when ASTS and SpaceX are fully operational.

Ok. You’ve got it then. Let’s say they don’t compete in those massive markets, markets large enough to justify the company paying $8B for Iridium, what else do they do then? This acquisition is not just $8B they spent, it’s likely $5-$10B more to develop a real solution that will justify the original $8B spent. The point is, this was a financial blunder, that will continue to be punitive to shareholders.

@deepvaluedude @SpaceSector001 DVD, RKLB acquiring IRDM is not to compete with ASTS and SpaceX- I really admire some work you have done and shared on X. But this view you have on the acqusition is completely missing the mark.

$RKLB There will be no bounce at the 200 dma. Just downside. Lots and lots of downside.

@Ricciaced Yep. Likely never goes above $100 ever again.

@deepvaluedude multi year high? The guy sold for 96$ per share. also has over 2mil shares left try harder guy

@corey407woc @Ricciaced

@Ricciaced @deepvaluedude My sweet summer child lol meanwhile I’ll be chilling on a beach with my 15 shares at $969 a share by the end of the year while you work your 9-5 job like a wagie broke boy

Rocket Lab 2 major business segments have incredibly low margins (20-30%) with very little room even with neutron to get higher margins. The company just acquired iridium which has completely descaled the business since they took on debt to do the acquisition and overpaid for a plateauing comms business that will get disrupted by Starlink/asts/amazon. In the sun of the parts, iridium should trade <10x ebitda. The company bought it for 16x. Shareholders are screwed since iridium’s tech is obsolete and will need a refresh, which requires more dilution in the future.

@deepvaluedude These companies do different things, but this is an interesting point. Thanks for the info.

$RKLB Rocket Lab - The Opportunity is Coming - Strong $2.2 Billion Backlog and Growing!! Video Analysis Rocket Lab is stepping up as a real competitor in the space race with $SPCX SpaceX, with strong government and commercial demand, fast launch cadence, and a massive backlog. Full chart + fundamental breakdown in the video 👇

@heroinvstr Um you gotta discount that backwards using a WACC of 10-13%… lol