DVD

It’s probably multiple shells and overlapping coverage so 300-500+ birds, to get to $10B. How much do those cost to build/rebuild/replace/boost to keep everything in orbit? How much will future spectrum deals cost? How much does competition drive down government contact margins. How much is financed with straight debt? Does it take 3 years or 5 years or 10 years to ramp consumer revenue? How slowly does government revenue ramp? (Global govt’s are incompetent at ramping drone spend/production even though it’s a solved technology and demonstrably required by current conflicts.) Remember two years ago when we were talking about “the company can self fund the entire constellation with just $500m of cash”. I don’t doubt my numbers are wrong. Everyone’s are wrong because D2D is an industry that literally doesn’t exist yet (de minimus SpaceX/TMobile or Apple/Gsat doesn’t count). The path to $10B has so many assumptions stacked on assumptions, and even then, if I had to guess I still think they eventually get there. But the path is going to be far more bumpy than “launch 90 birds at $23m/bird that all stay in perfect orbit for 7 years and then sit back and let the 90% ebitda margin FCF roll in”. If people want to call me stupid and ignorant for not understanding how to value this business I’m happy to wear that hat. But what I think we can all agree on, and really the key part of my post, is that the last 20x return on the stock, (from ~$4 to $80) was far easier than THE NEXT 20x. The previous market mispricing was atrocious, because people thought 100% ASTS was going to fail despite them having demonstrated, every step of the way, that the technology works. Versus today there’s a much more reasonable and measured debate for different future outcomes that could go in different directions. And I concede I don’t have the right mandate, or skill set, or attention span to follow that.

$RKLB There will be no bounce at the 200 dma. Just downside. Lots and lots of downside.

$RKLB Headed to the $70 range indeed..

$RKLB Iridium Project Stardust is Iridium Communications' standards-based Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) initiative for direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity, using 3GPP 5G standards. It was announced in 2024 and is on track to a 2026 Commercial Launch. This will bring standard messaging and SOS messaging on REGULAR phones all around the world, among other things. Multiple MNO partnerships (at least 7 signed, more in pipeline) for roaming/integration, chipset testing (e.g., with Mlink and others), and ongoing integrations (e.g., Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone IoT). Upcoming earnings on July 22 will be interesting.