Operation🅰️TM

Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI released their capacity ramp plan. We are in Q2 2026, which means this timeline has already started. Current monthly revenue: $64 million. By Q4 2026, guidance puts that at $303 million per month. By Q4 2027, $701 million per month. These are monthly figures, not annual. Here is why those numbers are achievable. Transceiver pricing does not compress as speeds scale. It expands. 100G sells at $20 per unit. 400G at $64. 800G at $320. 1.6T at $640. Each speed generation commands a price that far outpaces the throughput increase, because the engineering complexity at each step grows significantly. The revenue mix tells the real story. Today, 800G contributes $44 million per month and 1.6T contributes $6.4 million per month. By Q4 2026, 800G reaches $134 million and 1.6T reaches $147 million per month. The ELSFP module, which is not in the revenue mix today, scales from $3.2 million per month in Q4 2026 to $256 million per month by Q4 2027. This is ASP mix shift, not volume growth. Each product cycle that ships carries materially more revenue per unit than the one before it. The execution risk is the manufacturing facility ramping on schedule. Even at 70% of guidance, the revenue trajectory is not priced into the current valuation $AAOI $COHR $LITE

I really, really like $CRCL at $54. Valuation has been completely reset back to $12B MC. Everyone was rushing to buy it back at $150-200 but at $54, it's a ghost town. USDC supply still $70B+ and I expect stablecoins to continue growing in usage.

$ASTS Also, the converts done on July 24th and October 21st each took 35 or so calendar days to flush through the stock and then rallies of nearly ~200% and ~155% followed. This last convert was announced on February 11th so we’re about 34 days past then. Rally starts here.

$ONDS 👀 Last time we seen a TTM Squeeze remotely similar size to this one (current one is longer) we seen a 387% price increase 🤔🤷‍♂️ I wonder I wonder…

🔹S&J Portfolio Update 3/14/26🔹 Total: $1.41M * Excludes $700k cash I banked 1. $AMPX 2. $TE 3. $OSS 4. $IBRX 5. $BE 6. $OUST $. $LPTH 7. $Cash 🔹Key Takeaways🔹 🔹+ $200k this week 🎉 🔹+ New ATH hit this week 🎉🎉 🔹 Officially took $700k off table 🎉🎉🎉 This was a big week personally as I took action on a decision that has been on my mind since October. When is enough… enough? I am proud i made the move, I essentially just wiped out one of my accounts to rip the band-aid off and not punt it, so I spent a lot of yesterday re-shuffling my portfolio to balance back out. It’s not perfect yet but not bad. 🔹Position by Position Breakdown🔹 $AMPX: 28% What’s not to like here? Earnings were perfect, the broader macro situation continues to lean heavily in their favor, CEO is out in front on linkedin promoting NDAA compliance. Valuation is not quite as compelling as it was when I first entered but they put up a huge quarter and we know guidance was exceptionally conservative. I have unloaded a lot of calls (only holding Jan 2027 now) here and it’s actually much LESS of my portfolio than before, but I am actually quite comfortable at 28%. You know how I feel about momentum, I am not fighting the ocean. I very much see this ending the year over $30. $TE: 15% I guess at some point they do have to report earnings…. Right? I am going to be honest, this delay is starting to bother me. Of course they are still within their timing per SEC so nothing is wrong but if I have a CAO issue and concern about my filings I want to get it out of the way and clear the deck fast, not wait until the last possible second. I reduced my options exposure here and ate a bad loss on some July calls, which is on me obviously. All of my calls are January and assuming any issues are re: previous revenue recognition I feel good about them rebounding by January (my calls are not aggressive strike prices, $7s and 10s). But I am going to be examining this very very closely. I need full clarify on revenue recognition, forward guidance and deals. If they put up +$400m as previously stated, I’ll shut up. $OSS: 13% I believe I originally recommended this around $8 in Jan. We just closed over $10 I’ve added here into strength as this chart is flipping bullish as earnings approaches. This is going to be a very interesting report as we finally get to see the business metrics of the pure play USA defense company without the Bressner business they sold. I have a feeling the street is going to be very excited about this once the smoke clears. Reminds me of $oust recent earnings. $IBRX 12%: Some good news Friday around their tech capabilities. Allows faster and more efficient scale of production. FDA approval is still the white whale here. I am staying here all year. New tech development raises the floor. Revenue still aggressively ramping. I can afford to take this moonshot. $BE: 9% Not an asymmetric investment. I just think this is the best AI energy company by a lot. I will add on weakness. My options here are Jan 2028. Just giving myself some leverage but no time pressure. Might reduce leverage here. $OUST: 8% My new position. I made a long post about it. Sector, revenue, valuation are all perfect. We are likely close to floor valuation here when you comp to peers. I’ll likely write a report on this in the coming days but for my own learning. $LPTH: 8% Been a bit slow here, still unsure why. They are coming off a massive year so probably still digesting the move. Earnings was great. Environment tells me that won’t slow down given their domestic need and military increased spending. 🔹Final Thoughts🔹 I still have too much leverage. Right now I am 2:1 options to commons across my portfolio. That should really be reversed. I loved my play swapping commons to cheap options on pullback. I want to be able to do that again, but I need to continue unwinding these positions. Let’s keep winning. 🔹