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deltaDave
1.5K posts
deltaDave
@degenDave_
Work optional at a young age. Sharing how I did it.
Katılım Temmuz 2023
533 Takip Edilen166 Takipçiler
Agree, disinflation will be the surprise in the coming months.
Kip Herriage@KHerriage
My call, next 30-60 days: -Irans IRGC will collapse. - Oil into the $50’s. -Pure disinflation will become the primary trend (well into the 2030’s) as rates plummet. Sub 4% 10 yr in Q4 and 3.5% in Q1 2027. - No, Kevin Warsh is most certainly NOT a hawk. -Interest rate sensitive names will begin a parabolic move higher into year end. -Groups to own; semis/tech, small caps, gold, silver…especially gold miners… housing, Bitcoin.
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Declan Rice is fit and available to start England’s World Cup semi-final against Argentina, Sky Sports News understands 🏴
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This is the starting point of the Everything Code, my framework for how it all fits together: demographics, debt, debasement and where assets go next.
I've been building it in GMI since 2023. The full breakdown is here: x.com/RaoulGMI/statu…
Raoul Pal@RaoulGMI
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There's a simple formula underneath every economy on earth:
GDP growth = population growth + productivity growth + debt growth
More workers, more output per worker, or more borrowing. That's all growth has ever been. When the first two stall, debt steps in to fill the gap, which grows the economy now by stealing from the future.
The problem is that the trend rate of growth has been falling for decades, in the US and every developed economy. It now sits around 1.75%.
The reason is the part you can't change. The working-age population is shrinking. Fewer workers means a lower ceiling on growth, no matter what anyone does about it.
So the economy leans harder and harder on the one lever that's left. Debt.
And that's where the real story begins.
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Deciding what is enough versus accumulating more is such a difficult question. At 40 I’m acutely aware of the balance of living whilst I have the energy to do things but being very aware that I don’t want to be a poor old person. Maybe I won’t need as much as I think I will.
Cernovich@Cernovich
Medical expenses are obviously an exception, but once you’re old and kids are grown, you need very little money to live. Not saying don’t save. I’m always nagging people to set up accounts. But I was a bit too “type A” in my youth. Should have walked about a bit more.
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@aviv_lavi Argument to be made here that Jorginho should’ve seen red?
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@scrapytweets We’ll probably loan him out and pay most of his wages
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Printing money to pay the debt.
That's like using a credit card to pay a credit card.
This is the debasement of currency. And it's been running for decades.
The rich own assets. Assets hold their value as the currency debases.
Your income doesn't... it just buys less every year until owning anything meaningful feels impossible.
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@Innerdevcrypto Thank you for being brave enough to call this out.
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Please take my last post extremely seriously...really
Also, this accounts keeps total confidence of dm´s and chats, i always delete them after the conversation ends, it is one of the hallmarks of this account and why so many talk to me in confidence, but just know that sometimes when i reply to certain scammers/criminals/people with a bad past or present in this space, they dm/chat me looking for validation of their behavior, some outright threaten me, others even try to onboard me into their scammy behavior.
This account never yields to that kind of pressure, nor will it prevent me from saying the truth about certain characters on here. I just look past their screamy ego and tell them to improve their lives instead of being a degenerate
Also, i 100% stand by my previous statement in the previous post that this space will completely destroy itself if we do another cycle full of scams/extraction/memes and all that sh*t
Also, be very on guard because crypto-influencers, small and big, have upped their game, they know there is not that much left to extract, so they try to lure you in with all kind of nice stories, narratives, or other kind of bullsh*t so you buy there sh*tcoins or follow their narratives.
This time it is really on yourself if you fall for it again and lose it all, so if you have a brain, please use it
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This is the foundation of the Everything Code, my framework for how demographics, debt and liquidity all connect to drive everything from markets to your savings. I've been building it in GMI since 2023.
Read the full breakdown here: bit.ly/4y1WadN
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This is the most important chart in all of macro and most people still don't get it.
Labor force participation rate vs government debt as a % of GDP, inverted. They move in perfect lockstep.
Government debt has been accumulated to offset the declining working-age population, and from 2008 onwards, that debt has been mostly just servicing old debts while interest payments keep compounding.
Demographics are destiny and ours are already written. The workers for the next decade have already been born. Or rather, they haven't been.
Which means the borrowing and the debasement aren't going to ease. They're going to accelerate.
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