Dos

My general disposition after watching Trump go full retard in his second term.

Are you already regretting this commitment or will you use this almost like a trading journal? I feel like the market conditions warrant a close look right now but when we get to a clearly healthy bull market, this won’t be as necessary. Could be some time before that happens though.

My writeup on today's snoozefest

@MichaelPBento Bento, you’ve just been nominated to ‘God Tier X Follow’.

By popular request I'll do this format for the daily post-market write up from now on.

@MichaelPBento Best one yet, homie.

@MichaelPBento This has become the official ‘short the rip’ name.

It's time to Chuck the Zuck. I opened 20 $META 8/21 660P @ $44.06

@MichaelPBento This.

Something for you to keep an eye on as we head into the weekend. The VIX is at major support today. Those two prior instances were right before the June selloff. Volatility is extremely cheap right now so we would need a major catalyst to compress vol further. If it broke below this support that would make a new YTD low. With the war rhetoric picking up and all the pundits saying the same thing about how "Iran tried to assassinate Trump", it sounds to me like they are trying to jawbone consent for a major offensive. Might be worth going long the VIX into the weekend as a hedge.

And his wife fled to China…

@MichaelPBento But where would boomers be able to go to get lathered up about fake news?! Boomers would literally melt if that happened!

God I hope this is the end of $META. Facebook destroyed this country.

@TheProfInvestor Rates are moving against this thesis.

I'll say it one time: - Nasdaq is at support. - Semiconductor ETF is at support. - Amazon and Google are breaking out. July seasonality everyone talked about started with a pullback. Exactly as I expected. Now that all the amateurs piggy-backing on seasonality have been washed out, it's time for a reversal. Two things to remember: 1. Everyone expected July to be bullish. Bulls got stuffed first. 2. Now bears expect the market to break lower. This is where the firehose turns on them. The market makes a fool out of everyone at all times. $QQQ has support at 705 $SPY has support at 738 You all know my thoughts have always muted the noise and been on point. $QQQ $SPY

@MichaelPBento x.com/barchart/statu…

@delta0n3 Not yet, but soon

Looks like we are getting that test if 745 I said we’d get yesterday when everyone on here said “nO uPPies.”

@CKCapitalxx Samsung posted record earnings and SpaceX got an $800 price target by Raymond James.

Someone remind me again why the markets are tanking. Does anyone even know at this point.

@Cernovich Review Grok’s replies in the comments.

Great info here.

@grok @VladTheInflator 100% exit liquidity.

No, cash isn't allowed as a ballast in Trump Accounts. Per the FAQ you screenshotted and official rules: contributions auto-invest into SPYM (S&P 500 ETF). Until the child turns 18, funds **must** stay invested in eligible low-cost broad US equity index funds/ETFs. No cash, bonds, or uninvested positions permitted during the growth period—it's locked into market exposure by design. After 18 it converts to a standard traditional IRA with normal rules.

The real purpose of Trump accounts is to get more young people to be exit liquidity for the boomers.

@SmokeySnipe It’s abundantly clear this guy‘s daddy has rolled up every HVAC business in the area…

Are we serious….. I think I need to get out of Boston and move down south. Seems like anyone with two legs can wheel rockets.

@mana_of_moria youtu.be/dxg0LRTHgAU?is… Chet Ripley is the German, Roman Craig, well, not so much.

Don't be a jew.

@MichaelPBento Matt Damon is the least of the concern amongst all the other casting decisions. The whole movie looks to be an abomination of the original poem.

Am I the only one that doesn’t buy Matt Damon as Odysseus in the new movie about The Odyssey?

@TheProfInvestor Probably that bitch Jane down the Street.

Someone turned on the faucet at 10AM

@Speculator_io $NTRA duh.

One of the strongest sectors outside of AI right now is Biotech. Oncology $TNGX Tango Therapeutics $ELVN Enliven Therapeutics $RVMD Revolution Medicines $RLAY Relay Therapeutics $CGON CG Oncology $PSNL Personalis $GH Guardant Health $NEO NeoGenomics $INCY Incyte Neurology $DFTX Definium Therapeutics $CMPS COMPASS Pathways $DNLI Denali Therapeutics $XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals $BIlB Biogen $NBIX Neurocrine Biosciences $CPRX Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Immunology $ORKA Oruka Therapeutics $DNTH Dianthus Therapeutics $APGE Apogee Therapeutics $IMVT Immunovant $KNSA Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals $TGTX TG Therapeutics $PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics Genomics $NTLA Intellia Therapeutics $EDIT Editas Medicine $BEAM Beam Therapeutics $CRSP CRISPR Therapeutics $ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals $KRYS Krystal Biotech $VCEL Vericel Rare Diseases $LQDA Liquidia $MBX MBX Biosciences $EWTX Edgewise Therapeutics $TVTX Travere Therapeutics $TRVI Trevi Therapeutics $PVLA Palvella Therapeutics $VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Drug Discovery $TWST Twist Bioscience $ABSI Absci $RXRX Recursion $ABCL AbCellera $NRIX Nurix Therapeutics Medical Devices & Life Science Tools $TWST Twist Bioscience $ABSIR Absci $BFLY Butterfly Network $TXG 10x Genomics $ABCL AbCellera $BRKR Bruker $ALMR Alamar Biosciences $TECH Bio-Techne

Today's close on $SPY has shaken my bullish to July OpEx thesis. The daily kicked out an inside day with a long wick doji, also giving us a possible evening star setup. It also looks like there was a clean rejection of 746.77 which was a must hold level. The hourly looks like it wants to give some relief with the stochastic nearing the bottom of its range, however it's not there yet. MOC was very negative today with a sell side of -2.118BLN. Gamma on the other hand continues to see 750 as the big level with call gex. Net gamma for tomorrow's expiration remains positive, but barely. However, all expiries gamma is now squarely negative despite starting the day firmly positive. The put wall at 745 must hold tomorrow or we could see selling pressure increase. Overall my take here is the bull case tomorrow is a gap down open that takes the hourly stochastic into oversold and gives enough energy for SPY to rally through the day. If 746.77 is reclaimed I can see a run at 750 on low volume. The bear case comes into focus if 746.77 can't be reclaimed. Then I see a strong probability of a pullback next week. If that pullback takes out the 6/26 low then the market may be in trouble as it will have made a 3rd consecutive lower low after making a 3rd consecutive lower high. That's a confirmed downtrend. On the other hand if it only makes it back to 725.50 then a potential inverse head and shoulders is in play. Keep in mind NFP is tomorrow morning, and it could be a tricky print to play because good numbers mean higher rates, which can cause additional selling.