👀Moritz von Eschersheim👀

Seven clocks are running. None of them negotiable. All of them counting down to the same weeks. The planting clock. Mid-April is the biological deadline for corn and soybean planting across the US Midwest. Every day that passes without nitrogen becoming affordable and available narrows the window for corn. USDA projects corn falling to 94 million acres from 98.8 million. Soybeans rising to 85 million from 81.2 million. The seeds that go into the ground in the next three weeks determine America’s grain harvest in October. The decision is irreversible. The USDA clock. March 31. Prospective Plantings. The report that converts farmer intentions into official data. Every acreage number, every corn-soy ratio, every nitrogen-dependent calculation becomes a published fact that traders, governments, and food agencies will use to model global supply for the next twelve months. The number arrives in twelve days. The FAO clock. April 3. The Food Price Index. The first global reading that captures post-Hormuz commodity prices across cereals, vegetable oils, dairy, meat, and sugar. The 2022 peak was 159.7 in March 2022 after Ukraine. This reading will incorporate oil above $100, urea at $610, LNG halted, packaging repriced, and freight surcharges of $500 to $1,500 per container. The number that determines whether the UN declares a food emergency arrives in fifteen days. The pharmaceutical clock. India’s API inventory buffers are two to three months, measured from the war’s onset on February 28. Late May is the depletion window. Methanol at 87.7 percent Hormuz exposure feeds the solvent chain for paracetamol, ibuprofen, metformin, and antibiotics. Once buffers deplete, the shortage becomes a patient access crisis for the 47 percent of US generics that originate in India. The China crude clock. FGE NexantECA confirmed China is drawing commercial reserves at up to one million barrels per day. The draw sustains refinery operations for four to six weeks from March 19. Mid-April to late April is the exhaustion window. After that, China faces three options: accelerate Russian pipeline imports, reroute at massive premium, or crack open the strategic petroleum reserve. The third option reprices every commodity on the planet. The helium clock. SK Hynix and Samsung hold two to three months of helium inventory. Late May to early June is the depletion window. South Korea imports 64.7 percent of its helium from Qatar. Ras Laffan is offline. If helium buffers deplete before alternative supply arrives, semiconductor fabrication faces rationing. The AI hardware supply chain hits a physical wall measured in months, not quarters. The insurance clock. Solvency II requires 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before P&I clubs can reinstate war risk coverage. Even after a ceasefire, the insurance normalisation takes six to sixteen months based on the Red Sea precedent of 26 months and counting. The logistics system lags the financial relief rally by the longest duration of any clock in this crisis. Seven clocks. The shortest expires in twelve days. The longest runs for over a year. The planting window, the USDA report, the FAO index, the drug buffers, the Chinese crude draw, the helium inventory, and the insurance cycle are all counting down simultaneously. None of them pause for diplomacy. None of them respond to presidential directives. None of them read sealed packets. The calendar is the only actor in this war that has never lost a negotiation. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Eine Ministerin mit Vergangenheit in der Energiewirtschaft. Interne Unterlagen zeigen ein Telefonat von Katherina Reiche mit einem E.ON-Vertreter. Dach-Solar-Förderungen werden 1 Tag nach Telefongespräch gestoppt. Man muss kein Verschwörungstheoretiker sein, um sich zu fragen: Wie unabhängig ist diese Energiepolitik noch?

Right now, in barns and equipment sheds across the American Midwest, farmers are making the most consequential decision of this war. Not generals. Not senators. Farmers. At $683 per ton urea, corn economics have collapsed. Nitrogen is the single largest input cost for corn production. At pre-war prices a farmer could justify 180 pounds per acre and expect a margin. At $683 the math breaks. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria. They do not need the molecule trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. The seed decision is being made this week across roughly 90 million acres of American cropland. Once the planter rolls into the field, the choice is irreversible. Corn seed in the ground stays corn. Soy seed stays soy. The acreage allocation locks in. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. That report will tell the world how American agriculture responded to the Hormuz blockade. But the decisions it captures are being made now, in conversations between farmers and agronomists and seed dealers who are looking at nitrogen prices and making the rational economic choice: plant the crop that does not need the input you cannot afford. Every acre that shifts from corn to soybeans tightens the corn balance sheet for the rest of the year. Corn feeds livestock. Corn feeds ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. That demand is inelastic. If acres shift and production falls while the mandate holds, corn prices spike. Feed costs spike. The protein cascade reverses. The US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork margins that were benefiting from cheap feed compress when corn crosses $5 per bushel. This is how a naval blockade 7,000 miles from Iowa reaches the American grocery shelf. Not through oil. Not through shipping. Through nitrogen. The farmer cannot afford the molecule. The molecule cannot transit the strait. The farmer plants soy instead. The corn supply tightens. The ethanol mandate consumes its fixed share. The remaining corn reprices. The feed reprices. The meat reprices. The grocery bill reprices. The decision is not political. It is arithmetic performed on a kitchen table by a person who needs to plant in three weeks and cannot wait for a ceasefire, an escort convoy, or an insurance normalisation that the Red Sea precedent says takes years. The deepest penetrator in the American arsenal cannot reach a sealed Iranian doctrinal packet. But the fertiliser price it failed to resolve is reaching every planting decision on 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. The war’s most irreversible consequence is not happening in a bunker. It is happening in a barn. And by the time USDA publishes the data on March 31, the seeds will already be in the ground. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Bitte von Freitag bis Sonntag auf allen südwestlichen Inseln der Kanaren an einem sicheren Ort sein, besonders im Westen von La Palma sowie im Süden von Teneriffa und Gran Canaria. Es wird womöglich Regenmengen geben, wie sie seit Menschengedenken nicht gefallen sind in kurzer Zeit. kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkarte…

@exQUIZitely Oh I loved this game! Thanks for taking me back.

North & South (Infogrames, 1989) had a very special vibe. It was almost like palying a comic book. A truly unqiue style when it came to the design, turning even something as serious as the American civil war into a playful and fun game. It always reminded me a bit of the old school comics like Lucky Luke.

Wer dieses Video anschaut, liked, kommentiert oder verbreitet beteiligt sich an einer skrupellosen Hetzkampagne gegen #Hagel ! #verhagelt

Wenn der CDU Spitzenkandidat in Baden-Württemberg nichtmal die Grundlage der Klimakrise verstanden hat, ist er absolut ungeeignet, die Klimapolitik im Ländle die nächsten Jahre maßgeblich zu bestimmen 🤯

After 3 years a business owner was offered by Trump to take a million in a half for 3 million bill he refused to pay. He sold the business, its assets & equipment, cut checks to all the contractors still owed and then went home and blew his brains out.

This is a fun history lesson that takes me back. In 1795, French revolutionaries were building the metric system from scratch. They needed a prefix for “thousand” and went to Ancient Greek. The Greek word is χίλιοι (khílioi). The correct prefix should have been “chili.” Problem: in French, “chi” sounds like the start of “chier,” which means “to shit.” The scientists couldn’t have every unit of weight in the new system start with a word that sounds like a bathroom verb. So they swapped it to “kilo.” Technically incorrect Greek. But it kept the world’s measurement system dignified. Before this, France had 700+ different units of measurement. A “league” in one province was almost twice the distance of a “league” in another. Total chaos. The Revolution gave scientists the mandate to replace all of it with one clean decimal system. Greek roots for the big prefixes (kilo, hecto, deka). Latin for the small ones (milli, centi, deci). The whole thing became law on April 7, 1795. Then it took another 45 years of Napoleon banning it, people ignoring it, and political upheaval before France actually committed to using it. 230 years later, that “K” from a mispronounced Greek word, filtered through French revolutionary politics, now sits on every social media platform, salary negotiation, and bank statement on earth. The entire abbreviation you use every day exists because French scientists in 1795 refused to say “shit” every time they weighed something.

Die Straße von Hormus brennt, die Spritpreise steigen und wir rasen direkt in eine 3. Ölkrise hinein. Damit uns das Öl nicht ausgeht, ist jetzt die Gelegenheit wie in den 1970ern diverse Sofortmaßnahmen zum Ölsparen einzuführen z.B. - Wiedereinführung des 9 Euro Tickets - Tempolimit von 100 km/h auf Autobahnen - Tempolimit von 80 km/h auf Landstraßen - Autofreie Sonntage - Kaufprämie für Fahrräder - Pop-Up Radwege auf Pendelstrecken Wann versteht die Regierung, dass Verbrenner und Öl-Heizungen nicht Freiheit, sondern Abhängigkeit bedeuten?

The Trend is viral: #microneedling was yesterday, we micronoodle now! Spaghettini for all!!!

The dark side of the #workingclass right here.

I am a diplomatic aide in the Sultanate of Oman's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. My job is logistics. When two countries that cannot speak to each other need to speak to each other, I book the rooms. I prepare the briefing materials. I make sure the water glasses are the right distance apart. You would be surprised how much of diplomacy is water glasses. Too close and it feels informal. Too far and it feels like a tribunal. I have a chart. We had a very good month. Since January, Oman has been mediating indirect talks between the United States and Iran on Iran's nuclear program. The talks were held in Muscat and in Geneva. The Americans would sit in one room. The Iranians would sit in another room. I would walk between them. My Fitbit says I averaged fourteen thousand steps on negotiation days. The hallway between the two rooms at the Royal Opera House conference center is forty-seven meters. I walked it two hundred and twelve times in February. This is good for my cardiovascular health. It was less good for my knees. Both are in the service of peace. By mid-February, we had something. Iran agreed to zero stockpiling of enriched uranium. Not reduced stockpiling. Zero. They agreed to down-blend existing stockpiles to the lowest possible level. They agreed to convert them into irreversible fuel. They agreed to full IAEA verification with potential US inspector access. They agreed, in the Foreign Minister's phrase, to "never, ever" possess nuclear material for a bomb. I have worked in diplomacy for seven years. I have never seen a country agree to this many things this quickly. I made a spreadsheet of the concessions. It had fourteen rows. I color-coded it. Green for confirmed. Yellow for pending. By February 21 the spreadsheet was entirely green. I printed it. It is on my desk in Muscat. It is still green. That phrase took eleven days. "Never, ever." The Iranians initially offered "not seek to." The Americans wanted "will not under any circumstances." We landed on "never, ever" at 2:14 AM on a Tuesday in Muscat. I typed the final version myself. I used Times New Roman because Geneva prefers it. The document was fourteen pages. I was proud of every comma. Here is what they said, in the order they said it. February 24: "We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity." — The Foreign Minister, private briefing to Gulf Cooperation Council ambassadors. I prepared the slide deck. Slide 14 was the implementation timeline. Slide 15 was the signing ceremony logistics. I had reserved the Palais des Nations in Geneva, Room XX. It seats four hundred. We discussed pen brands for the signing. The Iranians preferred Montblanc. The Americans had no preference. I ordered twelve Montblanc Meisterstucks at six hundred and thirty dollars each. They arrive on Tuesday. February 27, 8:30 AM EST: "The deal is within our reach." — The Foreign Minister, CBS Face the Nation. He sat across from Margaret Brennan. He said broad political terms could be agreed "tomorrow" with ninety days for technical implementation in Vienna. He said, and I wrote this line for the briefing card he carried in his breast pocket: "If we just allow diplomacy the space it needs." He praised the American envoys by name. Steve Witkoff. Jared Kushner. He said both had been constructive. I watched from the Four Seasons Georgetown. The minibar had cashews. I ate the cashews. They were nineteen dollars. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten. But it was a good morning and we were within our reach. February 27, 2:00 PM EST: Meeting with Vice President Vance, Washington. The Foreign Minister presented our progress. Zero stockpiling. Full verification. Irreversible conversion. "Never, ever." The Vice President used the word "encouraging." His aide took notes on an iPad. The aide did not make eye contact for the last nine minutes of the meeting. I noticed this. Noticing things is the only part of my job that is not water glasses. February 27, 4:00 PM EST: "Not happy with the pace." — President Trump, to reporters. Not happy with the pace. We had achieved zero stockpiling. Full IAEA verification. Irreversible fuel conversion. Inspector access. And the phrase "never, ever," which took eleven days and cost me two hundred and twelve trips down a forty-seven-meter hallway. Every American president since Carter has failed to get Iran to agree to this. Forty-five years. Not happy with the pace. February 27, 9:47 PM EST: The Foreign Minister's flight departs Dulles for Muscat. I am in the seat behind him. He is reviewing Slide 14 on his laptop. The implementation timeline. Vienna technical sessions. The signing ceremony. The pens. I fall asleep over the Atlantic. I dream about water glasses. February 28, 6:00 AM GST: I wake up to push notifications. February 28: "The United States has begun major combat operations in Iran." — President Trump. Operation Epic Fury. Coordinated airstrikes. The United States and Israel. Tehran. Isfahan. Qom. Karaj. Kermanshah. Nuclear facilities. IRGC bases. Sites near the Supreme Leader's office. Israel called their half Operation Roaring Lion. Someone in both governments spent time choosing these names. Epic Fury. Roaring Lion. I spent eleven days on "never, ever." They spent it on branding. The President said Iran had "rejected American calls to halt its nuclear weapons production." Rejected. Iran had agreed to zero stockpiling. Iran had agreed to full verification. Iran had agreed to "never, ever." Iran had agreed to everything in a fourteen-page document that I typed in Times New Roman. The President said they rejected it. I do not know which document the President was reading. I know which one I typed. February 28, 18:45 UTC: Iran internet connectivity: four percent. — NetBlocks, confirmed by Cloudflare. Ninety-six percent of a country went dark. You cannot negotiate with a country at four percent connectivity. You cannot negotiate with a country that is being struck. You cannot negotiate. This is not a political opinion. This is a logistics assessment. February 28: The governor of Minab reported forty girls killed at an elementary school. I do not have logistics for that. There is no slide for that. The water glass chart does not cover that. February 28: Lockheed Martin: up. Northrop Grumman: up. RTX: up. Dow futures: down six hundred and twenty-two points. Gold: five thousand two hundred and ninety-six dollars. An analyst at AInvest published a note titled "Iran Strikes: Tactical Plays." The note recommended positions in oil, defense stocks, and gold. The most expensive cashew I have ever eaten was nineteen dollars. The most expensive pen I have ever ordered was six hundred and thirty dollars. The math suggests I have been working in the wrong industry. Defense stocks do not require water glasses. Defense stocks do not require eleven days. Defense stocks require one morning. February 28: Israel closed its airspace and its schools. Iran launched retaliatory missiles toward US bases in the Gulf. The Supreme Leader promised a "crushing response." Israel's defense minister declared a permanent state of emergency. Everyone is using words I recognize in an order I do not. I recognize "permanent." I recognize "emergency." I do not recognize them next to each other. In diplomacy, nothing is permanent and everything is an emergency. In war it is the reverse. February 28: The Foreign Minister has not made a public statement. The briefing card is still in his breast pocket. It still says "within our reach."

I am a high school chemistry teacher. For years, I encountered students who did not know their multiplication tables and it interfered with their ability to understand chemistry. This year, I decided to take matters into my own hands. ⬇️

Zuerst ein Gesetz beschließen, das die Heiz-Kosten durch die Decke treiben wird. Zwei Tage später Zurückrudern, Schadensbegrenzung. Wahnsinn. Ich habe viele Stunden mit Matthias Miersch verhandelt. Er versteht das alles. Und er gefährdet dennoch Mio. Menschen. Unverantwortlich.

Das, was von Gaskonzernen gekaufte Rechte, Liberale und Rechtsextreme als linksgrüne Ideologie framen, ist in Wirklichkeit nichts anderes als notwendiges Handeln aufgrund von wissenschaftlichen Fakten.

Via #ChristinaChristiansen: Was heute im Bundestag passiert ist, war kein „Redebeitrag“. Es war eine politische Abrissbirne. @katdro Dröge, MdB steht dort. Kein Zittern. Kein Lavieren. Kein „Vielleicht“. Sondern Klartext. „Es macht mich schlichtweg wahnsinnig wütend.“ Und genau DAS ist der Punkt. Diese Wut ist keine Show. Diese Wut ist Fürsorge. Für die Mieterinnen und Mieter, die am Ende die Zeche zahlen. Für die Menschen, die sich keine zweite Fehlentscheidung leisten können. Für all jene, die keine Lobby im Hinterzimmer haben. Während andere mit fossilen Fantasien kokettieren, während wieder so getan wird, als könne man Klimaschutz einfach „abschaffen“, während Öl- und Gasheizungen plötzlich wieder als Heilsversprechen verkauft werden — steht sie da und zerlegt diese Illusion in Einzelteile. Und dann dieses: „Looking at you, @spdbt .“ Kein Flüstern. Kein Hinterzimmer. Öffentlich. Direkt. Unmissverständlich. Weil Verantwortung nicht bedeutet, sich hinter Koalitionsarithmetik zu verstecken. Sondern Haltung zu zeigen, auch wenn es unbequem ist. Das ist diese grüne Kraft, die mich jedes Mal aufs Neue elektrisiert. Nicht weichgespült. Nicht angepasst. Nicht angstgetrieben. Sondern kämpfend. Bündnis 90/Die Grünen haben geliefert. Im Klimaschutz. In der Energiepolitik. In der Transformation. Und jetzt sollen die gleichen Kräfte, die jahrelang gebremst haben, so tun, als sei Fortschritt das Problem? Nein. Das Problem ist Mutlosigkeit. Das Problem ist fossile Bequemlichkeit. Das Problem ist dieses ewige „Die Realität ist schwierig“. Nein. Realität ist nichts, was man beklagt. Realität ist etwas, das man gestaltet. Und genau das hat sie heute gezeigt. Grüne Frauen stehen nicht da, um Applaus zu sammeln. Sie stehen da, um Zukunft zu verteidigen. Sie lassen sich nicht einschüchtern. Nicht von Zwischenrufen. Nicht von Machtspielchen. Nicht von politischem Schwer­mut. Heute hat man gespürt: Da ist Rückgrat. Da ist Kompetenz. Da ist Kampfgeist. Und ganz ehrlich? Wenn solche Frauen in diesem Land Politik machen, dann ist mir um die Zukunft nicht bange. Das war kein Auftritt. Das war ein Statement. Ein Hoch auf diese Stärke. Ein Hoch auf diese Klarheit. Ein Hoch auf grüne Frauen, die Geschichte nicht kommentieren – sondern schreiben. 💚🔥

Wahnsinn. Dieses Werk ist so brutal und nah am Zeitgeschehen. Ein Meisterwerk auf vielen Ebenen.

@Anonymous00708 Ulrich Wickert wurde WAS???

+++BREAKING NEWS+++ Amir Khatami, Oberbefehlshaber der iranischen Armee, nach Angaben aus #Iran bei Militärschlag getötet! #Israel #Explosionen #Teheran