des

Bar landed the trifecta, some very happy screams 😂 #HanshinDaishoten @GallopHorse_OA

@MitchellBazley @TheGlenny1 No he’s fine, Kalpana is a great horse & wasn’t hard to find nor was Calandagan a moral given his very close margins all year. Still ran 2nd in what is probably the strongest field in years.

@TheGlenny1 Maybe because I thought Calandagan would have the class to get over this lot? Obviously he doesn't. Racing is always easier to understand in hindsight, but that run at Epsom ruined him in my opinion. Not the same horse.

Putting this one in my top 3 worst videos to wake up to 🤮 Bloody disappointing. In disbelief he hasn't won here.

@LongBallToNoOne Even like an hour before they started throwing down huge money on the lay on Betfair. He did drift in Hong Kong too, but I assumed that was map & tempo related. I guess there's never any single variable though but yeah after parade was cooked.

@desimal303 He was buzzing pre parade, over the top and didn't concentrate.

aggghhh, never settled

@LongBallToNoOne Yep landed her and the duet with the 3yo. Could have done without that last min plunge from 15~ to 11 though.

@desimal303 Winner was good value on the JRA tote.

@yin138000 @plusEVbacker You missed the point, it's not comparing to KYR, but that he had such a high finishing speed that he wasn't fully tested there, where a horse in a 2400m race closed faster than one of the greatest sprinters in history (as a result of the jockey doing nothing til the very end).

@desimal303 @plusEVbacker Masquerade Ball was only faster than Ka Ying Rising in the final furlong, and his top speed couldn't compare to Ka Ying Rising's at all. This only goes to show that Masquerade Ball has a longer sprint distance than Ka Ying Rising.

I feel like a lot of people haven't noticed that there's a 5 lb swing in the weights in calandagans favour since the Japan cup? Added on that it's the first time travelling, first time on an undulating track I struggle to fancy the Japanese horse at all even with a pace maker

@LongBallToNoOne Hoping it stays that way, very good for me since I can bet into various pools and get a nice market

CALANDAGAN odds on on the JRA Tote.....early doors but still.

@Betfair_Aus can we get some Quinnella markets up for the King George at Ascot later tonight, surely enough liquidity for the race of the year. Save us from world tote

@BohemiaStable IIRC was a very low rated Tenno Sho regardless but I’ll double check that tomorrow. The big players who influence the markets most don’t care if he won or lost, more about the time he ran / figure.

@BohemiaStable Tiny liquidity Betfair/tote rn, wait til the syndicates get going closer to jump they should lay him much higher. None would be betting while there’s no liquidity, don’t want to show their hand / can’t factor in parade/wind/track bias etc. If he stays 50 I’ll throw in the towel

Wurttemberg 50/1? an each-way steal.

@MitchG57351992 @SportsCh4tter Yea, still good run considering where he came from, but have some concerns about loading into him. Coolmore will make it a test, so if he’s not 100% will be found out. Will have to see the prices on Sat.. have concerns with MB too: Lemaire/Japan record in UK.

@SportsCh4tter @desimal303 Can’t believe he is that price. Calandagan interrupted prep & not himself last start (albeit still won) sweeting up etc now travel again

Perhaps some questions/concern from the camp, certainly would have liked to see a bigger margin against the weaker fields in France & Dubai recently (albeit some excuses). Guess Sat will come down to odds. Not sure MB should be double price on early Betfair, others look big too.

@SportsCh4tter Wurtemburg looks huge unders right now I’ll spec when he gets out to like 150 Sat.

@desimal303 Yes I took both MB and Goliath.. PLC dabble wurtemburg

@SportsCh4tter Yea Goliath I already backed at 12-13s on BF but will go big on the place on Sat before he gets smashed late again. Not sure if I’ll back MB, don’t trust Lemaire, but price can tempt. I originally planned to smash Calandagan but might just be a save now. Waiting for Sat prices

@desimal303 Goliath LS very unlucky,he's a good price away from MB

@LongBallToNoOne He is definitely not the one at the very least, he’s not that special, runs a good race when front-running suits but he’s completely bombed everytime above 2200. What a waste

@desimal303 Agree, there's a wall and they keep banging their heads on it .....

Direct to The Arc 🇫🇷 next for MEISHO TABARU, no domestic or French prep run. Direct. #gohardorgohome

@BohemiaStable Why wouldn’t you? Plenty of big syndicates betting there correcting markets. Anyway all I’m saying is if you like him I think you will get over 100-1

@desimal303 I wouldn't read too much into Japanese tote SPs.

@J_Walter23 Because the national tote is a product aimed at attracting big whales/syndicates to bet more through TAB over competing places, it’s not designed to benefit average punter even if they say so in marketing. Greater liquidity benefits them way more than the guys doing small bets.

@desimal303 Exactly. The new plan looks like an exit plan. Not a reinvigorate plan. Big syndicates will pick off the remaining tote players. Little feast for them for a short time.

Callander’s column is the ultimate exercise in wishful thinking. He hits on a critical truth, that younger generations have zero brand loyalty to the tote because fixed odds have dominated the narrative, but his key premise completely falls apart when put next to reality. Look at the central sentence in his piece: "If the National Tote is capped at a 15% takeout and consistently offers the best value, punters will migrate." That single sentence exposes the massive disconnect between media commentators and corporate reality. Tabcorp isn't capping anything at 15%. Their Chief Wagering Officer officially confirmed takeout rates are increasing on popular exotics (Trifectas to 21.5%, First Fours to 23%, Quaddies to 20.5%). Even if a published takeout was 15%, you have to factor in rounding. Truncating dividends up to the nearest 10 cents means a 15% nominal rate routinely inflates to an effective 17%–18%+ overround in practice. At those bloated margins, corporate bookmakers don't even have to try. They can easily afford to top-dress prices by a fraction, offer "Tote Plus," and guarantee better value than the tote every single time. If you actually want a consumer revolution that brings the tote back to life, drop the takeout to a flat 10% and cap rounding losses. Corporates couldn't afford to match it, and the National Tote would instantly become the undisputed best-value betting product in Australia. The initial sugar hit of combining the pools will mask the problem for a minute, but that liquidity illusion will quickly be diluted by the uncompetitive prices. Without addressing the baseline cost to the punter, the product is simply condemned to slowly wither into oblivion #TheGreatGame

@J_Walter23 Ya but given they’ve already come out & said rebates will be a thing, we now know it’s not a good place to bet. Best situation now is not bet tote, educate punters on these syndicates & who they’re vsing with rebates, to try force TAB to try compete with fixed odds/betfair.

@desimal303 Another huge reason that giving rebates makes very little sense when speaking of sustainability alone