Deus Ex Trader

54.5K posts

Deus Ex Trader

Deus Ex Trader

@deus_trader

Running AI/ML server farm analyzing billions of options trading strategies. Live trading pure vol, skew & convexity, with regularly posted P&L. Hate complexity.

Las Vegas, NV Katılım Haziran 2019
498 Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
40% YTD. Nearly tripled my account in a year: $245K -> $680K. Started trading this specific vol/skew arb methodology on single names and $SPX last May. Some former market makers believe you can make about 15%/year trading vol (@KrisAbdelmessih), so I feel I’m doing well. Always have many open positions (350+ underlyings), so my balance may still change in either direction.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@gundam777777 Personal development: understanding where mathematics comes from and why/how it describes nature/universe. Unrelated to trading.
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Gabriel
Gabriel@gundam777777·
@deus_trader Quite difficult to understand, what is the goal of this work?
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
Recently I’m mostly working on math ontology. Codex is helping formalize a Lean framework where every number in every equation is tagged with its kind, type, and ontological source. The aim is to know exactly where numbers come from, distinguish different families of integers, rationals, and reals, and bridge discrete and continuous math, symmetry, topology, geometry, and dynamics.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@AppleMath7 @QuanquanGu This will be mostly solved with formalization where AI will be forced to trace and identify the source of numbers in every equation. Experts will have an intellectual role, but they’ll be consuming more than producing, as they’re already using AI to speed up years of research.
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AppleMath
AppleMath@AppleMath7·
@QuanquanGu You definitely don't believe what you just said. Because no one fully trusts AI, since it definitely makes mistakes. So we still need PhD-level experts, first, to ask questions and pose research problems, and second, to improve AI!!
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Quanquan Gu
Quanquan Gu@QuanquanGu·
Actually not just math, this is happening across almost every field. AI is collapsing the barrier to entry for research. What once required a PhD and years of training can now start much easier. We are moving toward a world where there is no “hard research”, but just unsolved problems. Big things are coming!
Andrew Curran@AndrewCurran_

Terence Tao responding to a question on what advice he would give someone considering a career in math in 2026: 'Yeah, so we live in a time of change. It is, as I said, we live in a particularly unpredictable era. And I think things that we've taken for granted for centuries may not hold anymore. So, yeah, the way we... do everything, not just mathematics, will change. In many ways, I would prefer the much more boring, quiet era where things are much the same as they were 10 years ago, 20 years ago. But I think one just has to embrace that there's going to be a lot of change and that, you know, the things that you study, some of them may become obsolete or revolutionized, but some things will be retained. There'll be a lot of opportunities for things that you wouldn't be able to do before. So, I mean, in math, you previously had to basically go through years and years of education to be a math PhD before you could contribute to the frontier of math research. But now it's quite possible at the high school level or whatever, that you could get involved in a math project and actually make a real contribution because of all these AI tools and lean and everything else. So there'll be a lot of non-traditional opportunities to learn. So you need a very adaptable mindset. There'll be one for pursuing things just for curiosity, for playing around. And I mean, you still need to get your credentials. I mean, I think for a while it would still be important to sort of still go through traditional education and learn math and science and so forth the old-fashioned way for a while. Yeah, but you should also be open to very, very different ways of doing science, some of which don't exist yet. Yeah, so it's a scary time, but also very exciting.'

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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
This might be a sure play on crude oil using $GUSH. It has to go either direction. Being leveraged, $GUSH will get decimated by 2028, but if it explodes up first then you may get a free bet on subsequent drop. I got both of these orders filled at the prices shown.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@mathladyhazel Once I saw a circle diameter d=1 arguing with a circle diameter d=1/π about which of them is more rational. I think they’re still going around in circles.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
IBKR was often used by pros, as it has better API (in some ways), and also more control over execution via API: you can specify the exchange, pick some execution algos, auto delta hedge an options order, or hedge with any number of shares, build & fill 6-legged combo orders, etc. Schwab has other features that are better, while different people may get used to what they started with. Some of it is marketing, as IBKR may convince you that they offer better execution, even when they don't.
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Gabriel
Gabriel@gundam777777·
@deus_trader So cheap, now I understand why u trade mostly there. Don’t know why Ibkr is still so used in USA as Schwab in cheaper and u have for retail robinhood that is free. Any idea?
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
IBKR commissions are killing me, $95 on a single options trade, though my edge should cover that. I'm sometimes trading options at my investment account IBKR as I'm running out of margin at Schwab where every order uses up the margin, even when not filled yet.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@gundam777777 It’s normal, but still a lot. At Schwab I pay $0.35/contract, but it could be negotiated even lower.
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Gabriel
Gabriel@gundam777777·
@deus_trader So it’s quite normal the price u paid, or on Schwab u got a cap price if u trade lots of contracts?
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@gundam777777 Yes, of course. I think it was a few legs and 60+ contract on this last trade :)
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Gabriel
Gabriel@gundam777777·
@deus_trader But it depends on how many legs and how many contracts. Based on your past trade I can bet at least u traded minimundo 70 contracts in total or more 😜
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
No, just having a bunch of open orders at Schwab takes as much buying power as if they were filled. Once cancelled, the BP is restored. I just have a lot of orders sitting open for days. At IBKR the BP is used up only after the order gets through, so having lots of open orders is fine.
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Renegade Trades
Renegade Trades@_RenegadeTrades·
@deus_trader You telling me that placing an options trade, then cancelling it before it fills still reducing buying power for the day like it actually did fill ?
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@leifthunder @public Btw, for single contracts and simple spreads Public would be worth considering. Don’t know how it compares to Robinhood though.
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Leif Abraham
Leif Abraham@leifthunder·
@deus_trader How about earning rebates instead of paying commissions? :) @public has negative fees on options trades
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@leifthunder @public Public does not offer portfolio margin, API, 6-leg option trades, option and risk analysis tools, and pretty much anything of professional grade for options traders. Just the lack of portfolio margin is a deal breaker.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
One of better bets on crude oil price falling after the recent spike may be $GUSH bear spreads, as leveraged stocks/ETFs $GUSH get decimated with any substantial drop. For now I'm just testing fills in terms of fair options pricing and liquidity.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
@slow_developer You can’t know what’s missing without knowing what’s missing. Therefore every answer is biased.
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Haider.
Haider.@slow_developer·
Terence Tao says current math perfectly explains most of the universe, but fails at the extremes of black holes and the early universe "solving this requires a missing theory of quantum gravity" To find it, we must completely abandon our fundamental notions of space and time
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
Just looked at the fair value of $PYPL optiosn and this trade looks simpler and likely attainable in terms of price/cost, but price may fluctuate.
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Deus Ex Trader
Deus Ex Trader@deus_trader·
MMs are starting to adjust options pricing for potential $PYPL acquisition. This is $PYPL acqusition options play idea. Otherwise has risk. Can be adjusted for less risk and less potential profit, or to target specific acqusition price. I didn't spend much time on this, just an intial idea that can be improved upon.
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