Devin Breise

@JennieBrooksSD @calonghurst Do we anticipate UCSD will offer vaccinations to 12-15 at their vax centers? If so, how long after EUA approval?

The @US_FDA will approve @pfizer for kids 12-15 by early next week according to @nytimes nytimes.com/live/2021/05/0…

@chriswhsu @LTrain18 @calonghurst @SanDiegoCounty

@chriswhsu @LTrain18 @calonghurst @SanDiegoCounty I did some data analysis with the raw Episode Date data + update history. On 7/1, a 7 day average with a 7 day lookback was missing about 42% of the cases that would later be recorded. In August average missing cases are 16% (range:11-19%). Maybe OK for public policy?

1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Aug 9th, 2020 Sunday night update... @UCSDHealth is clearly over another hump. Only 4 positives yesterday (last date we had less than 5 positives was June 18th). 7 day rolling average decreased to ~12/day.

@calonghurst @SanDiegoCounty Thank you! I take it from this and the UT’s reporting today that there is an alternative daily “new case” rate that we can’t (yet) see which is “significantly” more up to date than the publicly reported daily numbers? In essence, the public daily numbers are stale?

@devin_breise @SanDiegoCounty Remember that the county measures case rate using date of illness onset with a 3-day lag

@LTrain18 @calonghurst @SanDiegoCounty Did you get an answer on this? Using 14 days of data from yesterday back provides a case rate of 162/100K, a far cry from the 101-105 reported in the UT today.

@calonghurst @SanDiegoCounty I’ve tried replicating the calculations using our last 14 days of cases plus 3 day of and get nowhere near these numbers. Do you have any more information on laying out the specific numbers they’re using? Are they different than daily reported cases?

@calonghurst @SanDiegoCounty The 14 day running total of County or State reported "new cases" for SD County, normalized for #/100K gives a "case rate" _far above_ what the county and state are reporting. e.g. 5468 14 day total => 162/100K compared with 105/100K reported. Any ideas?

3/ @SanDiegoCounty is also doing better, with dropping case rates. Unfortunately, we now have to report both county and state rates because of acknowledged data discrepancies.

@Kristen_Taketa @sdut Both UT data and CA data show 14 day case rates FAR above the number required to arrive at today’s reported rate of 105/100k. Using 228 from yesterday and previous 13 days of data gives 162. What gives?

@PaulSisson Talked to some Drs. Can't make the numbers work. Using County data, the lowest 14 day case total in the last two weeks is 6201. Divide by SD Pop (3.379MM) and multiply by 100K. Result-> 184. County Reports 120 today. Question for the next Press Briefing?

@devin_breise They use a three-day lag

@PaulSisson hoping you can help me with some math... When I take the last 14 days of SD case data, apply CA metric cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/D… I get ~190/100K population, as opposed to currently reported ~130. Have you tried this calculation yourself? Ideas?

@PaulSisson I thought that might be the case, but if I grab 14 days of confirmed case counts, ending 3 days ago, the result would be even higher (>200). I'm working with a local school on this and we remain mystified...

@GeorgeScapin @MojangSupport Hey MC Support, maybe we dm you with account info, you set up with temp pws, then we can move on and buy MC?

@GeorgeScapin @MojangSupport Having the same issue for about 4 days.