@leevalueroach can confirm Shinkansen toilet seats are heated. Wild.
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David Fauchier
3.2K posts
David Fauchier
@dfauchier
Touching sand. Ex-PM for quant multi-manager fund @NickelDigital. Previously ran quant FoF @CambrialCapital. My views are my own.
Katılım Kasım 2009
366 Takip Edilen4.8K Takipçiler
the great thing about the airline industry for consumers is that there's very little differentiation.
you can count that if this works well for United, everybody else will copy it.
United Airlines@united
The entire row is alllllll yours. Welcome to United Relax Row, three adjacent United Economy seats with adjustable leg rests that can each be raised or lowered to create a cozy lie-flat space for stretching out... You'll also get a mattress pad, blanket and two pillows. If you’re traveling with kids, a plushie too! United Relax Row will be available starting next year on more than 200 of our 787s and 777s, each with up to 12 of these brand-new rows. united.com/Elevated
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@systematicls Passion and energy for building an X subscription product? 😉
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David Fauchier retweetledi
On $ADBE
could be "different this time"...but someone shared this chart + note:
'since mid 2015 revenue has increased sequentially in 39 out of 40 quarters.
Since release of ChatGPT, Adobe has seen 0 pressure on margins + revenue continues to hit ATH each quarter'
Josh Wolfe@wolfejosh
1/Today at private investor gathering I pitched LONG Adobe (ADBE) SHORT basket of scientific publishers Wiley Elsevier Springer Nature AI overestimation oversold Adobe (down 40%) AI underestimation along with 2 other catalysts is set to crack the oligopoly of publishers
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@macrocephalopod Best to rewatch s1 x4 and save the disappointment. S2 was good, after that great sadness
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I started watching Slow Horses, and I don’t want to be overly hyperbolic but this is definitely the best show I’ve seen in a long time, possibly up there with The Wire?
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Numeral is a fascinating experiment and this is the best write up on it I’ve seen 👌
Richard Craib@richardcraib
“Numerai Signals, by contrast, pushes a large chunk of the operational and portfolio burden onto users, which makes it structurally hostile to hobbyists and part-timers and better suited to genuinely institutional-grade processes.” Not untrue. Numerai Signals is very hard. Because it is hard to contribute additive institutional-grade alpha above what Numerai already has. We are genuinely surprised there are any users who persist and succeed. And we don’t know how they do it.
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David Fauchier retweetledi
Recently, we’ve heard a lot about the USDT audit. I decided to check how liquidity has improved over the past year for USDC instruments compared to USDT instruments (on Binance, spot exchange). The procedure is as follows:
1. Calculate the roundtrip cost for a $100k trade — the cost of executing a buy and sell simultaneously for $100k.
2. Do this for both the USDT and USDC instruments for a given coin.
3. Randomly select N two-hour intervals for each coin — one from roughly a year ago and one from the current market.
4. Compute CostImbalance = (USDT_cost − USDC_cost) / (USDT_cost + USDC_cost) for the first interval (one year ago) and the second interval (now).
5. Compute the difference between the two CostImbalance values.
Positive values indicate an improvement in USDC liquidity. For example, if CostImbalance = −0.75 in the first interval (meaning much higher roundtrip cost for USDC) and CostImbalance = −0.5 in the second interval (still higher roundtrip cost for USDC, but less extreme), then the difference would be 0.25 — showing that USDC liquidity has improved relative to USDT.
I ran this for around 40 coins, using 6 different interval pairs per coin. You can clearly see that the liquidity gap for USDC is significantly smaller now than it was a year ago — not just nominally, but relative to USDT liquidity.
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David Fauchier retweetledi
If you own 50 tech growth stocks, you don't have 50 independent bets. You have 1 bet on the tech-growth factor, sliced 50 ways. When that factor crashes, all 50 move together.
Most of your returns come from systematic factor exposures, not stock picking. And systematic risk cannot be diversified away by adding more stocks with the same exposures.
Real diversification comes from one of two sources:
1) You have no view on idiosyncratic returns and have enough of them (30-50) that idiosyncratic returns of your portfolio is ~0, and then the returns of your portfolio is dominated by FACTOR exposures, not number of tickers.
2) You have a view on idiosyncratic returns and are taking exposures to non-zero forecasts of idiosyncratic returns. Then, if you do not factor neutralize, you will be left with idiosyncratic returns + factor returns.
Study your portfolio's factor loadings. You might be shocked to learn you're running a concentrated bet while thinking you're diversified.
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@HHorsley I mean… I don’t disagree market structure was changed by ETF, but there HAVE been stronger setups before…
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We talk about 4 year cycles —
But the reality is that model is based on a bygone era of crypto.
Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs and new administration, we've entered a new market structure: new players, new dynamics, new reasons people buy and sell.
I think there's a pretty good chance that we've been in a bear market for almost 6 months now and are almost through it.
The setup for crypto right now has never been stronger.
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David Fauchier retweetledi
Interesting appointment for Diageo’s new CEO! The lack of CEO was a notable overhang at the recent quarterly update, this should be a welcome announcement.
diageo.com/en/news-and-me…
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@LowAlphaHighVol You wont do better than this writeup for an analysis of the biz and the sector
sectorstories.substack.com/p/sector-story…
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In the world of institutional grade family offices if you have both Bill Gate's Cascade and TetraPak's family office among your top shareholders you're probably running a pretty stable and high quality business.
Givaudan $GIVN
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Chuck in ‘I am long beta’ and replace those irrelevant 50page DDQs managers get asked to fill out with this questionnaire 👌
sysls@systematicls
I make money because: [ ] I am harvesting risk premia [✓ ] I have alpha from superior models [✓ ] I have alpha from superior data/information [ ] I have superior access to cost/rebates [ ] I don't I keep my money / sustain a moat because my strategy: [ ] Has fat tails (kills people/people kill themselves) [✓ ] Has an infrastructural barrier to entry (hard) [✓ ] Has a knowledge barrier to entry (hard) [ ] Has a psychological barrier to entry (nasty) [ ] Is opportunistic / special situations (no fitting) [ ] Has a structural barrier to entry (unfair access) [ ] I don't than the dollar-volume weighted participant. Know thy strength!
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@AgustinLebron3 There are ways to triangulate (1) if there's alpha and (2) if they're good at research, but yeah, art not science etc
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HF manager A: Good at finding alpha, secretive about it for obvious reasons.
HF manager B: Not good at finding alpha, secretive about it for obvious reasons.
Thing is, B has a LOT of time to figure out how to LOOK like A to prospective LPs. And A's secretiveness helps a lot!
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@xmgnr The heavy lift is calculating the variance that you can handle. How hard do you vol shock? Mean & median asset down 65% open - low 🤯
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was nervous to remark my port but now standing at a 14% loss on total nw vs oct 1st
but from looking at twitter it seems im a pussy in the grand scheme of things (no levg, no exposure to <1bn mcap assets) and got off light
even if you think your bets are ev you never want to take more variance that you can handle: the mental destabilization of losing (and winning) big erodes your ability to make good decisions
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