danny williamson

Today's AI is the least capable version you will ever interact with, running on the least amount of HBM it will ever be equipped with. The trajectory from here has only one direction. $MU $DRAM $SNDK

This is S tier research I put out for free! Appreciate the shoutout from technical folks like @TheValueist who saw how awesome this trade idea was: -> mapped pass through structures of $EWY and SK Hynix/Samsung despite ETF rebalances -> found 2028 volatility pricing issues on option chains in specific by comparing it to realized IV. -> summarized that into an easy-to-understand thesis. on top of directional long memory supercycle after breakdowns of Samsung/Sk Hynix projections. Not everyone can profit off of Jane Street algorithms and foresee South Korea citing increasing volatility across the board!

There’s a lot to digest from the last week with $SIVE. The $JBL 1.6T collaboration, together with the confirmed CW laser shortage and partnerships with O-Net and Enablence Technologies, feels like a decisive step forward. In the Annual Report from May 13, $SIVE directly addresses “discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers” that point to a structural shortage of CW lasers. This is happening at exactly the right time, AI training and inference clusters are pushing explosive demand for higher bandwidth, lower power and denser interconnects. What really stands out to me is how the dots are connecting. $JBL, key partner to $AMZN, $MSFT and $GOOGL has chosen $SIVE’s high-performance InP DFB lasers for 1.6T pluggable modules. At the same time, Amazon’s recent private placement with AIChip (Ayar Labs’ lead customer) signals major design wins ahead. And $SIVE is the sole supplier of the critical laser arrays to Ayar Labs. The same pattern keeps repeating. O-Net Technologies (with strong North American and Asian hyperscaler ties) and Enablence are developing ELS modules with $SIVE lasers for CPO. POET Technologies $POET just secured a $50 million initial order from Lumilens. Everywhere the big players are moving, $SIVE seems to be part of the picture. On the manufacturing side, the WIN Semiconductors partnership together with the own Glasgow fab gives $SIVE real independence and scalable capacity (30k–35k wafers/year) in a very tight InP market. All of this is coming together right now. Pluggables give near-term volume, while CPO offers the big efficiency jump ahead. The photonics TAM is exploding from $14B to $154B in just two years and $SIVE is positioned right in the middle of it. With this level of validation across the value chain, I believe we are likely to see more partnerships and firm purchase orders soon. For $SIVE, this feels like a real inflection point. The company is transitioning from deep-tech innovator to a strategically critical, independent supplier in the optical backbone of next-generation AI. The hyperscalers keep choosing $SIVE for a reason. Execution is there, the connections are deepening, and this momentum feels increasingly unstoppable.

When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical depth. I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK: 1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice. It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028. $SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2... For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD. This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics. And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE. The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there). As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation. It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable. Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level. And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B. 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates. Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates. $LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently. Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after. However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations. And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up. It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point. 3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment. Guess where all your optical transcivers are made? China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others. AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly. Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road. But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI. It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026. There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution. 4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers. $MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE. The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels. Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under. As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products. Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development". It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA. I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time. People who think it's one and done in 3 months time "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about. Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher. Should really do the research before adding comments like these: These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.

@aleabitoreddit @rbbr416 looks like Wagyu !

@rbbr416 Thank you! Food is really good here

I only came to Japan to do first person DD on Harmonic Drive (6324) and Towa (6315). Not sure what everyone else is doing in the evenings there…

$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis. TLDR: Extremely Bullish. Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development. 1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers" For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers. "Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion) 2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years" $LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck. And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi. "The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand" $SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know. This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader. VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH): 3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026" H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET. 4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026" $AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both. Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales. 5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing) FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals. Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle. But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE. TLDR: -> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck -> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion. -> New customers for CW lasers -> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.

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Wow, $SIVE to be listed in the MSCI Global Small Cap Index. This is overwhelmly positively as it triggers more passive inflows as the MC grows. Rebalancing takes places May 29th.

Hey @MartyChargin --EPS season continues its "Wild Child" ways even as wraps up this week for calendar year reporting companies. Winners today include $VELO up 24%, $NXT up 14%, $NBIS up 13%, $TSEM 10%, $GLBE 7% and $VSH up 5%. A couple losers: $WIX off 14%, $DRMN 8% and $GILT 3%.

$MU $SNDK $DRAM @MicronCEO The "Memory/Storage" label undersells what these companies actually do. These are Cognitive Capacity Companies. The Inference Foundation of AI. AI intelligence is not just about the model. It is about how much the model can hold, reason over, and retrieve at any given moment. That ceiling is set by three layers: 1. KV Cache (HBM) The most critical pressure point in agentic AI today. During inference, attention keys and values are stored in HBM. A larger KV cache means the model does not have to recompute prior context. That is what makes long context reasoning fast and economically viable at scale. No HBM, no agentic AI. 2. Active Reasoning Layer (HBM/DRAM) This is where inference lives. More bandwidth and capacity means the model can attend to more tokens simultaneously, which directly improves reasoning depth, multi-step problem solving, and coherence across long conversations. This is not a performance luxury. It is a cognitive constraint. 3. Knowledge Retrieval Layer (NAND) RAG systems pull from NAND to give models access to knowledge that cannot fit in the active reasoning window. As AI moves from single-turn responses to persistent, multi-session agentic workflows, NAND becomes the long-range intelligence layer of the entire stack. KV Cache is where inference speed is won or lost. The active reasoning layer is where depth is determined. The knowledge retrieval layer is where scale is unlocked. Cognitive capacity is the ceiling of AI intelligence. These companies build that ceiling higher with every generation. The market still prices them as commodity suppliers. The inference foundation they provide says otherwise. Buckle Up For The Transformation Journey

Photonic stocks to BUY and HOLD until the end of this DECADE: 1. $SOI - Monopoly in SOI substrates powering 100% of next-generation data centers. The backbone for CPO buildout. 2. $SIVE - Undervalued InP laser supplier to hyperscalers and major OEMs. Highly diversified with wireless (SatCOM & Defense), LiDAR, and Apple Watch business segments. 3. $TSEM - The TSMC of Photonics. Dominant industry leader in SiPho and SiGe for optical communications, working with NVIDIA, Broadcom, Lumentum, Coherent, and Applied Optoelectronics. 4. $IQE - IQE owns one of the largest independent InP epitaxial foundries and reactor capacities globally. Silicon cannot generate photons due to its limitations, so InP wafers are mandatory. It is a primary upstream supplier to Lumentum, so NVIDIA and hyperscaler demand flows directly to IQE’s business. Personally believe these 4 are capable of building generational wealth. 🤩

It’s a good lesson to learn how to actually analyze earnings reports. Rather than looking at the chart right afterward. $AAOI up 25.18% since ER drop to $139… and +16.09% today.

Not too shabby? $IQE is now up 4x since in the past 3 months. $MTSI paying off their debts does derisk the company long term. I’m curious if anyone listened anon?

And now $LPK is #19 on the list of my individual stocks that returned 100-1000%+ YTD. After going up +4.57% today. Usually 1 or 2 is good, but I’ve written about and went long on 19 different stocks this year that went up triple digits. I’m kinda impressed with myself ngl?

I wonder if Swedish media realized what they’ve done transferring control over to American investors/institutions and stopped posting? $SIVE is the most compelling CPO long I’ve seen, especially for the laser chokepoint.

$MU From $62 → $805 $SNDK From $200 → $1650 I know. I was repetitive. Structural shift. Paradigm shift. Over and over since 2024. Imagine being more annoyed by the repetition than by missing +1,200%. Notifications on.

“Leading” Glass Substrate players that were name dropped if you’re curious: • $LPK — TGV Equipment • $GLW — Glass Materials • $ASGLY (5201 T)— Glass Materials • $NIDGY (5214 T) — Glass Materials • $LRCX — Etching Systems • $DSCSY (6146 T)— Dicing Equipment • $SMHSF — Bonding Systems • $ONTO — Inspection Tools • $KLAC — Inspection Tools Fun to see the stuff I’ve called out early in the year like LPK at ~$150m MC get mentioned as a critical player by Trendforce and others.

Starting today I am shifting focus to Agentic AI. My background in memory, semiconductors, and data science gives me a unique lens on what is coming. Pay attention. Turn on notifications. Agentic AI will be the most important investment theme of the next decade.

$SNDK $MU If you believe Sandisk & Micron are trading in a “bubble”... just look at the box in the upper left corner... They have real earnings & sales growth & I would say are “under valued” & will trade higher. It’s a bull market ya know! Think big!.. that’s all

I’m just going to leave this here with $AXTI. 100% of the comments were negative when I posted at ~$13. And I got banned later after it went up 10 times.