ItsSmacky

To build a 100k-1 Million GPU AI factory, you have to solve a massive physics problem Traditional optical wiring generates too much heat and drains too much power. The inevitable shift is to Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). By fusing the optics directly onto the switch silicon, CPO slashes power consumption by over 3.5x and drops electrical signal loss to just 4 decibels. CPO isn't just a buzzword it is a physical necessity that is about to unlock a $15 billion market by 2030. I just published a comprehensive report breaking down the exact timeline for this CPO build-out and the hidden supply chain stocks you need to own to profit from it. Read the full deep dive using the link in bio or comments

To build a 100k-1 Million GPU AI factory, you have to solve a massive physics problem Traditional optical wiring generates too much heat and drains too much power. The inevitable shift is to Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). By fusing the optics directly onto the switch silicon, CPO slashes power consumption by over 3.5x and drops electrical signal loss to just 4 decibels. CPO isn't just a buzzword it is a physical necessity that is about to unlock a $15 billion market by 2030. I just published a comprehensive report breaking down the exact timeline for this CPO build-out and the hidden supply chain stocks you need to own to profit from it. Read the full deep dive using the link in bio or comments

$SIVE / $SIVEF update 👀 Big move up, sharp pullback — that’s normal. Especially when turnover picks up and everyone suddenly starts watching the name. That usually brings exactly the same thing every time: more noise, more speculation, and more attempts to shake out weak hands. TA-wise this is also very straightforward. After larger moves, retracements into the Fib 0.5–0.618 zone are completely normal. That’s where we are now. So either $SIVE starts turning here, or it flushes a bit more toward 7.3 SEK, which is the key level I’m watching. 📈 To me, this doesn’t look like a broken case. It looks like a stock resetting after a hard run while weak hands get pushed out. And fundamentally? Nothing important has changed. The bottlenecks in AI/data center optics are still there. Hyperscalers still need more bandwidth, better efficiency, and better optical performance. That’s why the bigger story is still intact. 🚀 So no panic here. Either it holds here, or around 7.3 SEK. But this still looks like consolidation in a stronger trend — not the end of it.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.

테슬라향 소부장 업체들에 수혜가. 내일 국장은 이런 종목들 찾고 엮을라고 노력들 할듯.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.

What does the recent financing mean for Sivers from here? CEO breaks it down. Locked and loaded. Here are the key numbers: $17M total facility, $5M term loan, $12M convertible, refinanced debt, stronger capital structure. That matters. This gives Sivers more flexibility and a firmer base for the next phase. $SIVE $SIVEF

I’m long $SIVE at $140M. I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed. $SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers. Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck. But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles. They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova. And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA. Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally. 

 $POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers… But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?

 It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B. 

 So now at $130m:

- - You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET. 

 - Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI. And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential. 

 On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”. 

And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers." 

Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come. 

I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.

 It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week. Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo. 

Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in. 

Downside risk: 
- execution (as always) 
- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others. - $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed. 

I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC. 

Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier. 

 When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M. I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck). 

 But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up. Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers. 

 If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures. Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated. Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622. This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI. TLDR: InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations. 

 $SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp. 

I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst). 

 The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.

For those who know — and for those who still haven’t found it yet 🧵 
$SIVE / $SIVEF might be one of the most overlooked deep-tech opportunities in Europe right now. 🇸🇪⚡ The first time I looked into Sivers, I genuinely couldn’t believe it. A small company from Kista, Sweden, with technology strong enough to attract world-class customers across multiple industries.