Alessandro Palombo@thealepalombo
I completely agree on the overall uncertainty. I might be totally wrong, but I think that in an uncertain, ever-evolving landscape, anyone who has truly mastered a craft in depth will win. To what extent, we'll see.
Last week I got to look through 80+ applications from a seed-level incubator batch, through a friend. Every website was a 8/10, all vaguely similar, and the copy and grammar were a solid 8/10. All were "in principle fundable," because even the TAM analyses, the metric projections, and most importantly the MVPs were "equally decent." Honestly, in some cases the differentiating element was very hard to find.
I couldn't tell, the way I sometimes could five years ago, where there was a founder with a special edge, or a product clearly better than the next one. Almost all were pre-revenue or low revenue, so PMF was still an open question. Being practical: if one of them was a 40-year-old with a good track record and real in-depth industry knowledge, everything else aside, that's who I'd have bet on.
It's not my job, so maybe the anecdote isn't that telling, I may be easily not skilled enough on this. But realistically, compared to the last 20 years, where mastering leverage itself was the winning move, I think there's a hard correction coming.
So in your example, maybe the edge won't be the ability to copy an app. It'll be a decade of in-depth experience in a specific industry, plus the parts that aren't AI-able: regulatory barriers, personal relationships (and/or being great people-persons), etc..
And who knows, the people who benefit might include those who, until now, looked destined to never "make it" monetarily. The classic "graduated in history" type. I think we all have a friend like that