dino

@chuckbasspoker Also totally agree about people being too inflexible, crazy on something like eurovision where we have incomplete info for 99% of season. Like they use their opinions as some sort of identity.

@chuckbasspoker After every contest I conclude that it's not really worth getting involved until the week of. Or at the least don't go into it with too many positions. I'm sure there are people who have an edge on Feb/March markets but it's not me. Saves a lot of mental energy too.

Arguing with eurofans and bettors has successfully rage baited me into sharing some stuff about specials betting (or "prediction markets" as the cool kids say these days). Mostly writing this through an Eurovision betting lens but I personally view Oscars, etc the same way. ⬇️

@ChrisWh08370492 I think we have the same issue as past 2 contests where it's much harder for TV magnets to get enough J to get over the line than the other way round. Jury semis will help, and agree on 🇮🇱, but think 🇬🇷🇫🇮 have more work to do than 🇫🇷🇦🇺

I now consider 🇫🇮🇮🇱🇬🇷 the main contenders to win this year and in that order. 2.8 still way too short for 🇫🇮 but is possibly only country that gets T4 in both J and TV. I have backed it to not win at 3/5 and very happy to leave it. Slight fav over the other 2 imo

@MLT2022 Yeah I agree, Wasted Love was pretty immediate whereas with this I've spent 2 months talking myself round to the song. It is impossible to know, but I think if they get it right then the PV ceiling is higher.

@dino__j I think back to JJ’s like 12 second IG snippet release and the initial impression it made on me and many others (even if they were less keen on the full song). I really don’t see that essence here. It is though an entry that really requires the full package to judge fairly

Spoke about it a bit yesterday so lets use my pre-run coffee to talk about how I see the Jury Vote this year. First let’s say I think it will be close with no clear winner unlike the past 2 years. This is one of the reasons I see value in a high TV potential like 🇬🇷 outright.

@MLT2022 🇫🇷 song is weak, but I think it's weak in quite a clever way. The intro strings, and Monroe, will draw the viewer in, and there are checkpoints that should re-capture attention. The chorus is the only really crap bit, and I don't think it's meaningfully worse than JJ's

🇫🇷 This hits many boxes but fails where JJ was underrated. The song lacks any quality of recognition or appeal. I genuinely still don’t know how it goes. The performer looks great, the ambition is there and it has staging potential, but it lacks a song, and yes…

@dolphin_dane @threadreaderapp Thanks for these! Would be cool to see some spread metrics (which entries split opinion the most on either side of the vote?)

@threadreaderapp unroll

BIG EUROVISION PREDICTION SURVEY 2026 RESULTS After collecting the predictions of 327 fans and using them to simulate the contest 100000 times in a sophisticated model, here are the results. A full, high detail forecast of the contest based on our collective wisdom (a thread 🧵)