Alex

The U.S. Air Force has lost over a dozen MQ-9 “Reaper” Surveillance & Attack Drones to enemy fire so far during Operation Epic Fury, with the drones lost to either Iranian surface-to-air missile fire or destroyed on the ground by ballistic missile and drone strikes, two U.S. officials confirmed to ABC News.

$CCLFX. $32.5 billion. The largest interval fund in America. In 2021, ZERO borrowers were paying interest in IOUs. By September 2025: 188. And they thought: no losses, no redemptions. Read this. Cliffwater tells investors: "96% first-lien senior secured." "10% distribution yield." "Minimal losses." I parsed every position in their N-CSR filings on SEC EDGAR. All of them. I cross-referenced borrower names across every semi-annual filing. At least 53 borrowers were cash-pay in earlier filings. They used to pay cash interest. Then they couldn't. The loan was amended to PIK to avoid a technical default. Amend and extend. Cliffwater marks most at par. $1.24 billion. Five names that tell you everything: 1. WEALTH ENHANCEMENT GROUP — manages $136B in client assets. Can't service interest on its own subordinated debt. Holds a $23M tranche at 15% PIK — zero cash on that tranche. CW blended mark: 82c. My mark: 42c. The wealth managers can't manage their own leverage. 2. APEX SERVICE PARTNERS — HVAC rollup, 200+ companies, 43 states. Was cash-pay 2021-2024. Now holds 14.25% PIK sub-debt tranches paying zero cash. CW: 90c. My mark: 39c. Your AC repairman's parent company is paying its subordinated lenders in IOUs. 3. CPF DENTAL — dental chain. SOFR + 9.25% plus a 4.25% PIK component. All-in rate: ~18%. Maturity: December 31, 2025. The loan was due three months after the filing date. CW marked it at 99.7 cents. My mark: 64c. 4. PPV INTERMEDIATE HOLDINGS — healthcare. The name is the evidence: "Intermediate Holdings" = structural subordination. Sub debt. 13.75% PIK tranche, zero cash. CW: 97c. My mark: 37c. Behind SBA loans, revolvers, equipment lenders, tax liens, pension obligations, and every operating company creditor. Sixty cents of overstatement on a tranche paying nothing. 5. iCIMS — HR tech/SaaS. Was cash-pay from Mar 2022 through Sep 2024 in every filing. Now 10.07% PIK. The software company can't pay its interest bill. CW: 96c. My mark: 84c. Generous. Very generous. Even with a modest haircut, that's a confirmed credit event they won't recognize. The playbook: Borrower can't pay (SOFR went 0% to 5.3%) --> Amend to PIK (no default recorded) --> Extend maturity --> Mark at par (97% Level 3, no market price, Cliffwater sets its own marks) --> Book PIK as income ($57M of PIK interest in six months ended Sep 2025 alone) --> Collect fees Why they do it — the incentive: Cliffwater charges a 1% annual management fee on net assets. At $32.5B, that's $325 million a year. Every dollar of markdown reduces the fee base. Permanently. The incentive to not mark down is $325M/year. And here's the fund-of-fund layer they don't talk much about: six of their top ten holdings are CLOs, BDCs, and fund vehicles that charge their own fees underneath. Silver Point CLO ($1.4B), Barings Private Credit Corp ($919M), BlackRock Shasta CLO ($600M), Golub Capital, Blue Owl, AGTB. Your grandmother is paying Cliffwater 1% to invest in other funds that charge another 1-2%. Fees on fees on fees. On assets marked by the people collecting the fees. Cliffwater reports a non-accrual rate of 0.42%. I identified at least 53 borrowers that converted from cash-pay to PIK — borrowers that stopped paying cash interest. That is not 0.42%. That is systematic restructuring to avoid classification. Amend the loan before it hits non-accrual, and the number stays low. "First-lien senior secured" — on hundreds of holdco/intermediate/bidco positions, the collateral is equity of the subsidiary. Not the factory. Not the receivables. Not the cash. In liquidation: IRS eats first. Pensions eat. SBA eats. Revolvers eat. Equipment lenders eat. Employee claims eat. MCAs eat. Trade creditors eat. Then maybe the holdco "first lien" gets the scraps. They call that 96% senior secured. 97% of this fund is Level 3 — no observable market price. Cliffwater determines the value. Cliffwater collects the fees. Cliffwater reports the yield. And investors see 10% distributions and think it's safe. Remember that they went after unsophisticated investors. Retirement accounts. Your grandmother's financial advisor put her in this. First out gets the most out due to Cliffwater's bogus marks. Redemption requests just hit 14% in Q1 2026. The fund caps quarterly repurchases at 7%. This is the beginning. Every data point from their own N-CSR filings on EDGAR. CIK 1735964. Verifiable.

Norway saw a massive exodus just from slightly raising its wealth tax. I don’t understand why people were so sanguine.